FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Slate Summary for July 28
I love that we effectively have baseball every day, starting around mid-afternoon, throughout the entire week of this wacky season. However, from a FanDuel MLB perspective, it does complicate things a bit.
Sure, I don’t have to play the All Day, or sometimes ‘Early Only,’ slate each day. But, there are times when some of my favorite offensive MLB DFS stacks are available early or the ONE SP I’ve been waiting to roster is finally fantasy baseball available!
Today is different. Today, I wish it were tomorrow…because this slate is horrendous! However, I do think we’ve found a few nuggets for our FanDuel MLB plays.
First of all, we do have three slate options. There’s an ‘All Day’ slate which is the only one capturing the Indians hosting the White Sox in Cleveland.
That slate also captures the Blue Jays in Washington playing, current World Series Champs, the Nationals. And, assuming there’s no longer COVID concerns, the Yankees in Philly playing the Phillies.
However, you can also get a small ‘Early Only’ slate with ONLY the two games in Philly and DC. Personally, given the COVID-Marlins concerns around Philly right now…that slate seems awfully risky to play.
Then, we have the Main slate, which now often appears to be slated for 6:40pm each day. For this post,that is my main focus, but I’ll also talk about the All Day slate so we capture each of the more popular FanDuel MLB options for the day.
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Plays
First of all, I wouldn’t consider the ‘Early Only’ slate for Tuesday. There is at least a 50/50 chance the games in Philly (100%, it’s already postponed) and DC are delayed, if not postponed, due to showers and storms developing right around game time.
Basically, the messy weather we had in the Ohio Valley yesterday is transitioning to the East Coast this evening.
That’s unfortunate, because if you’re playing the All Day FanDuel MLB slate, Gerrit Cole ($11,700) is was BY FAR the best pitching play of the day. So, for now, I would plug Cole into your All Day lineups, but be prepared to flip to one of our other top options as we get weather reports closer to 6pm ET today.
So, the obvious next place our minds would pivot to for SP’s is Walker Buehler ($10,500). But, there’s two major caveats! First of all, the Astros are one of the the worst offenses to target a RHP against. The wRC+ was above 100 last year, and their K rate was around 17%. MUCH WORSE, Buehler is on a pitch-count cap for his first several starts in 2020.
Paying $10.5K for a limited pitcher with a terrible match-up is non-optimal in fantasy baseball!
So, where does that take us? Well, it’s not a place I thought I’d go. Looking for low x-FIPs and K-rates above 25% last season, I really only found three other solid options.
Name | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | ERA | xFIP |
Carlos Martinez | 9.9 | 3.4 | 0.37 | 26.50% | 9.00% | 0.218 | 1.18 | 0.298 | 3.17 | 3.76 |
Alec Mills | 10.5 | 2.8 | 1.25 | 27.60% | 7.20% | 0.231 | 1.17 | 0.299 | 2.75 | 3.98 |
Austin Voth | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.03 | 25.30% | 7.50% | 0.209 | 1.05 | 0.257 | 3.30 | 4.44 |
Of this group, Carlos Martinez ($7,100) would normally make me the most comfortable, but against the Twins, in Minnesota, there’s just no solid reason to roster Martinez.
Which REALLY narrows down my options to Austin Voth ($7,100) for an All-Day move or …checks notes…checks notes again….Alec Mills ($6,300) against the Reds in Cincinnati.
OK, it’s going to take convincing to play either of these guys. So, I’ll start with Mills, who frankly may be one of the best options in this slate, quietly.
In his last two major league starts, late last September, Alec fanned 15 Cardinals hitters in just 9.2 innings. He gave up only seven hits but did walk four batters. Still, he kept his earned runs down to only ONE!
In fact, Mills had a sub-3.00 ERA last season for a reason, he never gave up more than three runs in any one outing. Also, Mills had a 10.5 K/9 inning rate, higher than practically all options in this slate.
The Reds are one of the teams with the most buzz this season, but against RHP’s in their own ballpark, they had a 91 wRC+ and 23.8% K-rate, 10th worst in baseball. So, Mills even has a decent match-up to consider.
Like Mills, Austin Voth ($7,100) was quietly holding down the fort for the Nationals last September, as they battled through injuries. Voth had five starts in September, gave up only four total runs, and fanned 24 hitters in just 23 innings.
Also, Austin’s match-up is quite good. The Blue Jays had an 89 wRC+ against RHP’s on the road last year, and their 26.1% K-rate was fifth worst in baseball under the same circumstances.
But, like Cole, the problem with Voth is the weather. We have to keep an eye on the radar heading into the 6pm hour to understand if he’s worth rostering. If he is, Voth and Mills are likely great value plays at the SP position today.
Here’s a quick SP summary for these slates:
All Day – Cole (top play) or Voth (value). If weather is a problem for both, then Mills.
Main Slate – Mills is your man for all things pitching!
FanDuel MLB: Hitting Stacks, Value, and Best Plays
I was pleasantly surprised Derek Holland is still pitching in the majors. Holland was one of my favorite pitchers to stack an offense against, and he is again today.
Derek gave up over two home runs per nine innings, had a 1.51 WHIP, and 6.08 ERA last season. Many of those stats were the result of relief pitching action, but that doesn’t modify the outcome to me.
Holland is getting crushed, and the Brewers are an offense to stack for this slate, against Holland. Hopefully the Pirates keep him on the mound long enough to really let the runs pile up!
Name | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | ERA | xFIP | Opponent |
Derek Holland | 4.8 | 2.13 | 21.80% | 12.00% | 0.251 | 1.51 | 0.276 | 6.08 | 5.25 | Brewers |
Kyle Wright | 6.0 | 1.83 | 19.40% | 14.00% | 0.304 | 1.88 | 0.351 | 8.69 | 5.44 | Rays |
Kyle Wright isn’t as well known, but in some aspects his pitching statistics are worse than Holland’s. The Rays get to face a pitcher with a 1.83 HR/9 las season, high 14% walk rate, .351 BABIP, and super high 5.44 xFIP.
A couple of other stacks I’d consider are the Nationals, Mets, and Angels. Within those lineups, you can find some potentially dynamic value plays, like Yoenis Cespedes ($2,600) and Victor Robles ($2,700).
Maikel Franco ($2,200) could stay hot in Detroit and Matt Adams ($2,100) is one of my favorite bomb-hitter value plays when in the lineup facing a righty, as a LHB.
For top plays, assuming you’re going the value route with pitching Mike Trout ($4,500) is in a juicy spot in this slate. While I’m not stacking the Indians, I’d consider Jose Ramirez ($3,600) to stay hot for the ‘All Day’ slate only. And, Paul Goldschmidt ($3,700) and Trea Turner ($3,700) are each heating up for the Main & All Day slates.
FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups – July 28 Summary
This is a brutal slate to peg. We also know the Marlins and Orioles game is cancelled, and the Yankees Phillies game has been canceled as well, and there are storm concerns for DC.
That said, Alec Mills is an exciting SP option for the Main slate, and Austin Voth is worth a play in the All Day slate in the same position. We love the Brewers and Rays stacks in all formats, along with the Nationals (All Day Only), Mets, and Angels.
Our favorite pitchers provide plenty of value to snag top plays like Ramirez and Trout, or Turner and Goldschmidt. Franco, Adams, Cespedes, and Robles all carry some FanDuel MLB value as well.
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