Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Monday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 9/20 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a much smaller MLB slate than usual, as is typical for a Monday. Taking out the early games and the doubleheader leaves us with a seven game main slate on FanDuel. As has usually been the case lately, I can confirm that there are zero games with a high PPD concern from a weather standpoint. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. Robbie Ray ($11,000) is absolutely untouchable on the mound right now. If you go back and watch highlights from his last few outings, you can tell that he is just feeling it as he tries to get his team into the playoffs via the wildcard route. He now draws a matchup against a Tampa Bay Rays team that is pretty close to officially locking up first place in the division, but has not quite reached that point yet. It is no secret that this team really struggles to hit left-handed pitching, and they now have a matchup with unquestionably the hottest lefty on the planet. Double R may get 27 strikeouts tonight and I will be starting nearly every FanDuel lineup that I make with him.
B. If you are crazy enough to fade Robbie Ray tonight for some reason, then keep reading. For everyone else, I certainly do not blame you if you just jump down to the bases segment, because that is how much of a lock I feel Ray is this evening. An arm that actually does have a slightly higher strikeout rate than Ray is Freddy Peralta ($8,900). Peralta is also listed as a larger favorite than Ray, but I would still much prefer Ray’s matchup against the Ray’s over Peralta’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. Peralta owns a 34.1% strikeout rate that is the second highest of any pitcher taking the mound today, trailing only Carlos Rodon. There is a very significant price discount here, so that is really the only reason I would even consider dropping to Peralta over Ray.
C. Another option that will save us slightly more salary cap than even Peralta is Huascar Ynoa ($8,400). Ynoa draws arguably the best matchup of my three pitchers, as the Arizona Diamondbacks are already planning their offseason vacations at this point. Ynoa is also listed as a larger favorite than Ray, although he does come in behind Peralta in terms of expected win percentage in Vegas this evening. If you are really in need of an extra $500 salary on FanDuel, then Ynoa is a fine option, but I would still prefer Peralta. Ynoa is able to keep the ball on the ground at a much higher rate than both Peralta and Ray, so he should be able to limit homers compared to my top two arms, but groundballs also lead to hits more than flyballs. To summarize, I will have as much exposure to Ray as possible on FanDuel tonight, but we do have two solid options that can save us some salary cap.
The Bases
A. To kick things off on the offense side of the ball, I will be looking to a team that has been very hit or miss for me this season, the New York Yankees. The Yankees will be taking swings against A.J. Alexy, who owns the highest SIERA of any pitcher taking the mound today. His 5.48 SIERA and extremely low 21.2% groundball rate indicate that these powerful bats could send some baseballs out of the ballpark early and often. While Alexy has been able to keep his hard contact rate low, that along with his 3.68 ERA are mostly aberrations that the Yankees will look to bring closer towards reality this evening.
B. A pitcher with advanced metrics that more closely support his ugly surface performance is Jaime Barria. Barria will be slinging it against the Houston Astros, who are not a team that you want to face if you are a gas can that cannot strikeout opposing batters to save your life. Barria owns a 5.39 SIERA, 13.8% strikeout rate, and an 8.8% walk rate. As we all know by this point in the season, the Astros are a patient team at the plate that strikeout at one of the lowest rates in the majors. This is the exact type of matchup that this team tends to explode in, so I will have as much exposure to Houston as I can afford with Ray as my pitcher this evening. These small slates tend to be more straightforward, and that definitely seems to be the case tonight.
C. The final team of the evening that I will be mixing into my FanDuel lineups is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are a team that fail to produce more often then not, so I will not be looking to full stack this team again this season. However, that does not mean that they do not provide some decent one-off options for our tournament lineups. With how poorly this team has tended to perform, even in easy matchups, their prices are all depressed across the DFS industry. A matchup against Jake Woodford should, in theory, result in significant offensive production for the Brew Crew. The top option here is Christian Yelich, but there are quite a few lefty bats on this team that we can get at a discount this evening as well.
That will do it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in the MLB chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
