Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Friday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 9/17 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have the largest MLB slate possible on this fine Friday, with all 30 teams facing off in a 15 game behemoth. Luckily, I can again confirm that there are zero games with a high PPD concern from a weather standpoint. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. We kick things off with an excellent game theory opportunity to take advantage of with my favorite baseball player, Chris Sale ($10,000). Sale is carrying the dreaded, bold, red “OUT” label on DraftKings, which is nearly guaranteed to lower his ownership this evening. Sale was out because he tested positive for COVID, not because he had any injury related to his Tommy John surgery. The way that I see this, Sale just got an extra trip through the rotation to double his normal rest. Prior to that break, he had reached 95 and 86 pitches over his previous two outings. I do not need to cover the metrics because we know Sale is a top arm in baseball, so I will be jumping at the chance to grab him on extra rest, at low ownership, in a prime matchup.
B. The New York Metropolitans have been showing some signs of life late into the season, but now they run into an ace known as Zack Wheeler ($10,700). Wheeler is tied with Webb for the lowest SIERA on the slate of 3.21, and he trails only Dylan Cease in the strikeout department. The Mets are just not an offense that scares me even if they have started to show a pulse down the stretch. They are still 24th in the league in runs scored, 26th in hits, and 24th in OPS. Wheeler is the most expensive pitcher on the slate and while I would rather take the savings in terms of salary and ownership that Sale provides, he is easily my SP2 on FanDuel tonight.
C. With a few solid options remaining for my third pitcher on the evening, I will look towards the aforementioned Dylan Cease ($8,600). This slate seems like a solid spot to pay up for bats, and if we want to get some expensive stacks into our lineups then Cease is the way to fit the puzzle pieces together. Cease has put together a solid 2021 season as he has compiled a 3.70 SIERA, 31.1% strikeout rate that is the highest of any pitcher taking the mound, and a 9.8% walk rate. While the walks are definitely a concern, this Rangers squad is not what I would call “patient at the plate”, and we could see a ceiling game for Dylan on Friday night.
The Bases
A. I have stacked the Milwaukee Brewers without much success at all so far this season, but they can repay their debts to me tonight. If we are spending up at pitcher on Sale or Wheeler, then the Brewers are the recipe for success when it comes to our stacks because they are much more reasonably priced on FanDuel than some of the other popular bat options. The Brew Crew will be taking swings against Zach Davies and a Cubs bullpen that is just going through the motions to end a disappointing season. With a 5.33 SIERA and a 5.40 ERA, no matter which way you look at it, Davies is one of the biggest gas cans taking the mound on Friday night, so we should look to attack this spot as much as possible.
B. Another stack that I will be looking to get exposure to on FanDuel lineups where we have a bit of extra salary cap is the San Diego Padres. The Padres have been somewhat coasting it feels, as they obviously have no hope of catching the Dodgers or the Giants. However, SD does still project to have a 22% chance of making the playoffs this season, so they really need to win every game that they can. This should be low hanging fruit in terms of winnable games, as they get to face off against Miles Mikolas. M&M has the lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher this evening, and he really struggles to limit runs as a result. This Padres team could explode in a spot like this and I want exposure to them when that happens.
C. The final team of the night that I will be mixing into my lineups is the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox are still in the thick of the wildcard chase, despite the Tampa Bay Rays absolutely running away with the division. They draw a matchup against the literal punching bag of the AL East, the Baltimore Orioles. The O’s have been getting spanked around by the rest of the teams in this division for years now, and that will not stop tonight. The lines for this game have not been posted at sportsbooks as of the time of this writing, and I expect that is because the sportsbook cannot even calculate a number to represent how massively the Sox should be favored. Stack Sale and the Sox to absolutely smash the Orioles and their bottom of the barrel bullpen on Friday night.
That will do it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in the MLB chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
