Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Monday and I hope that everyone enjoyed week 1 of the NFL! Check out the FanDuel MLB 9/13 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a smaller seven game main slate with only one early game, so as is typical with these Monday slates, quite a few teams across the league will get the day off. Luckily, since there are fewer games we also are less likely to have any weather concerns and I can confirm that there are zero games with a PPD concern from a weather standpoint. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. The biggest question of the slate tonight is what to do with Clayton Kershaw ($10,900), thus I will be starting off my article by addressing this elephant in the room but not exactly telling you what to do with him. The reason for this is that it is mostly a risk tolerance type of thing, so it is really you that should be making the decision. Here are the facts: Kershaw has not pitched in the majors since July 3rd when he was placed on the 60-day injured list. He will be throwing on five days rest as he did pitch a three-inning rehab start on the 7th for the Dodgers Triple-A squad. He threw 49 pitches in that outing, which makes me feel comfortable projecting him for at least 60+ tonight, but you truly never know with Dave Roberts. I will likely be avoiding him since we are getting no discount, but the matchup is definitely a juicy one.
B. That brings us to another questionable top pitching option on FanDuel, Yu Darvish ($9,200) of the San Diego Padres, who will be throwing against the heavy hitters of the San Francisco Giants. In this battle of the “San’s”, we have one of the best offenses in baseball going up against a pitcher that has really struggled to reach his expected potential throughout the season. Darvish did pitch a gem his last time out, but that was against an Angels team who (outside of Ohtani) could not hit water if they fell out of a boat. Prior to that, Darvish got lambasted by the aforementioned hapless Arizona Diamondbacks on two out of three previous starts. While his price is very reasonable, I may be looking to avoid another Darvish implosion.
C. What a bizarre article that I started off with two arms that I likely will not target, but they are the two “aces” on the slate and that is technically the title of this section! As for a pitcher that I actually do plan to target, Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,500) will be taking the mound for the Boston Red Sox tonight as they face off against the Seattle Mariners. This game is on the west coast in Seattle, so the Sox pitching staff should have an easier time limiting runs than they do in the tiny confines of Fenway Park. E-Rod owns a 3.65 SIERA which is good for third on the entire day, behind only A. and B. above. The Mariners are not an offense that scares me so I will take the savings that we get with Rodriguez on FanDuel tonight.
The Bases
A. Another strange thing about the baseball taking place today is that the two pitchers with the highest SIERA are both throwing in the lone early game, so we are unable to target them with hitters on the main slate. That leaves us with the Houston Astros as my favorite team to stack this evening. The Astros will be taking swings against Spencer Howard and his 4.61 SIERA. While that SIERA is better than his 6.21 ERA, Houston is not a matchup that tends to help a pitcher lower their ERA. This team hits for contact and does not strikeout at a very high clip. While Howard does not have an extremely low strikeout rate, his walk rate is very high and that could get him into some serious trouble in this matchup.
B. The second team that I will be looking to stack in FanDuel lineups tonight is the Toronto Blue Jays, who will be facing off against Ryan Yarbrough and the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen. Yarbrough has been a serviceable long reliever for this team in the past, but he is moving more towards an average to slightly below average major league pitcher. His 4.46 SIERA is only slightly better than Howard’s mark, and this Blue Jays team can swing the stick with the best of them. It always feels better when some of the best offenses on the slate match up with some of the worst pitching, and it definitely looks like that is the case tonight.
C. To close things out, I will be sprinkling in Texas Rangers hitters into my lineups as one-offs and mini-stacks. The one-off from this team that I typically tend to roster the most is Adolis Garcia, as he will either hit some dingers and get you a zero, which is really the stereotypical type of GPP play that we tend to look for in baseball. Individual players aside, this team will face off against Jake Odorizzi, who likely is more name value now than anything else. Jake is a huge favorite here, but that is more due to the offense that backs him up than anything to due with his own pitching capabilities. He owns the second-worst SIERA on this small slate and although the Rangers season has long been over, they offer cheap one-off plays in a good spot for DFS tonight.
That will do it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in the MLB chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
