Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Monday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 8/9 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. This article will be shorter than usual today as we only have four games to cover. DraftKings has an early lock to make it a five game slate, but since we focus on FanDuel in this column I will only be covering the four game slate that does not lock until 8:05. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. With only eight pitchers to choose from, the quality of the three top choices is actually shockingly high. We kick things off with Freddy Peralta ($10,200), who will be throwing against a Chicago Cubs team that have mailed in the remainder of this season. Peralta has the only strikeout rate above 30% tonight, as he fans opposing batters at a 34.5% rate, putting his SIERA at 3.47 to accompany his high 11% walk rate. While the walk rate is high and the ground balls have not been there this season, I will target almost any pitcher against this Cubs team down the stretch. However, it looks like this game could be a wash out and drop us to just a three game slate.
B. Our second best option tonight, and one that will save us significant salary off of the potential rainout of Peralta is Joe Musgrove ($9,000). Joe has really been underpriced all season long, and I have probably written him up in this article more than any other pitcher. He really has solid numbers across the board and unlike Peralta, he does not have any clear weakness in his game. The Marlins are another team that I will happily target with my pitching as we close out this season, so target Joe and take the savings, especially if the Brewers vs. Cubs game is a rainout.
C. My final arm on FanDuel is one that many would expect to have the best metrics of these three, but he actually comes in third place. Lucas Giolito ($9,500) is more expensive than Musgrove, yet he has not pitched as well this season. Gio owns a SIERA of 3.77, a strikeout rate of 27.7%, and a walk rate of 7.5%. Those SIERA and strikeout figures are pedestrian for his usual standards, but in a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, we should expect a strong performance. So if you are following along, not only do we have three solid arms on this tiny slate, they also all draw excellent matchups. Keep an eye on weather and ownership, as well as of course roster construction, to make the choice between these three guys tonight.
The Bases
A. There is one team that draws far and away the best matchup this evening and that is the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have the pleasure of taking swings against Beau Burrows, who has horrendous numbers, albeit across a small sample size. Thus far, Burrows owns a 6.85 SIERA, 14% strikeout rate, and a 16.3% walk rate that is higher than his strikeout rate. They will likely be chalky, but there is no getting around CHW exposure tonight if you want to be profitable.
B. This slate is pretty clear cut given how small it is, and after the White Sox the next clear team for us to target is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers draw a matchup against Alec Mills and his 4.40 SIERA, 16.4% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate. Mills is not exactly a gas can, but he is definitely the second worst arm taking the mound on this FanDuel main slate. Both the White Sox and the Brewers are massive favorites, so again we definitely should not expect low ownership here, especially on a tiny slate. With that said, if we are playing the best plays, the Brewers are definitely second in line.
C. Surprisingly, there is actually a team that has a higher implied team total than both of the offenses that I just mentioned, and that team is the New York Yankees. While I do not think that the Yanks should have the highest total, they do draw a decent matchup against Carlos Hernandez, and they are definitely a top three offense on this FanDuel slate. Hernandez sports a 4.32 SIERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 14% walk rate. While that strikeout rate could spell trouble for some of these bats, that walk rate is brutal and should result in some serious traffic on the base paths. Carlos also does not keep the ball on the ground very well, so we could see some multi-run homers come our way from this Yankees lineup tonight.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
