Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Wednesday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 8/4 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. Although we have an early slate, as is typical for a Wednesday, we still have a large 11 game main slate. That 15 game slate yesterday was a bit much, so at least we trim it down a bit tonight, even though 11 is still pretty hefty. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. We kick things off with a very interesting spot as Max Scherzer ($10,500) will be making his first start in a Dodgers uniform and yes, I am still salty that the Red Sox did not land him. Mad Max will be slinging it against the Houston Astros, and while this is not a very good matchup at all, DK gave us a steep discount on Scherzer’s price point. I know that this is a FanDuel article, so I will say that I will still be targeting him at his FD price tag, but there are likely pitchers in better spots at lower salary for us to target over there which I will cover in the next two sections. Scherzer is the obvious SP1 on both sites, but the price on FanDuel has me wanting to look towards my SP2 and SP3 a bit more often since the Astros do not strikeout at a high rate whatsoever.
B. While my SP2 will only save us $500 of salary cap on FanDuel, Kevin Gausman ($10,000) draws an infinitely more preferable matchup than Scherzer as he faces off against the weak Arizona Diamondbacks. Gausman and the Giants are approaching the -200 favorite mark, and they will want revenge after inexplicably and pathetically dropping a game to this Diamondbacks squad last night. On the season, KG owns a 3.50 SIERA, 30% strikeout rate, and a 7.8% walk rate. His ERA is even better, sitting at 2.35, and I will likely take the savings with an arm that has a much better matchup while still showing similar upside.
C. My SP3 tonight is not for the faint of heart, but he will save us a pretty penny on FanDuel and allow us to spend up on the more expensive bats on the teams that I will mention below. Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,600) is never a pitcher that will be described as “safe”, as he is definitely a GPP-only option every time that he takes the mound. E-Rod owns a 3.51 SIERA, which indicates that he has been pretty unlucky to have an absolutely brutal 5.60 ERA this season. He has strong strikeout stuff with a K rate approaching 28%, and only allows free passes 6.5% of the time. The issue is he surrenders a lot of fly balls and those tend to leave the park in tiny old Fenway much more frequently than other ballparks not named Coors Field. The Tigers are a team clinging to playoff hopes, but at this price point I will definitely have some exposure to Rodriguez, because when he is on he is on.
The Bases
A. With so many games on the slate, we have no shortage of gas cans taking the mound. Although the Washington Nationals were big sellers at the trade deadline, they now have some very cheap bats in their lineup that allow us to fill out a stack while still paying up for pitching. They will be facing off against Chase Anderson tonight in what is listed at around a pick ’em. Anderson definitely fits the bill as a gas can, as evidenced by his 6.75 ERA, 5.17 SIERA, and 9.5% walk rate. I do not expect the Nationals to be a popular DFS target for the remainder of the 2021 season, so we should get them at very low ownership even when they have an excellent matchup like this one.
B. If you cannot stomach a squad that has totally mailed in the season, I do not blame you, but may I interest you in the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have done the opposite of mailing in the season, as they look to make a deep push into the 2021 playoffs. The Cardinals are the current laughing stock of the entire league, as they decided it would be prudent to go out and pick up two pitchers that are so obviously past their prime in Lester and J.A. Happ. We saw what this Braves squad did to Lester yesterday and we can expect a similar result for Happ tonight. Happ’s pitching could be confused for batting practice with the amount of hard contact he allows, and the ball will be leaving the park off of Atlanta bats tonight so bet over 4.5 runs on this team and target them on FanDuel as well.
C. The final team that I will be looking to target on FanDuel tonight is the New York Yankees who will be taking swings against yet another gas can, Matt Harvey. The Yankees have seemingly let us down in nearly every solid matchup that they find themselves in this season, although they finally got things rolling with a 13 run performance last night. I expect them to parlay that into another double digit run game against Harvey and his 6.20 ERA, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 6.3% walk rate. While Harvey and Happ both do not allow a ton of walks, that is because they are busy allowing doubles and homers before they reach four balls. Going right back to the well on the Yankees tonight should be a profitable strategy without a doubt.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
