Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Friday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 8/27 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. Good to be back here after a week off for vacation, and I am welcomed back by a monster 15 game slate. There are quite a few weather concerns for us to keep our eyes on as well, so this should be a handful of a night in MLB. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. Well, I suppose I should start this by saying I have to “eat crow” (what a strange saying), on my Gerrit Cole take from the last time that he took the mound. He proceeded to absolutely shove and score a boatload of fantasy points, making him a requirement to win any type of serious money on the slate. I will not be making that mistake again, as Gerrit Cole ($11,200) will be my SP1 to get us started tonight. Cole is expensive and draws a tough matchup against a solid Oakland Athletics offense, but those factors, along with the size of the slate and the number of very strong pitching options at our disposal should lower his ownership considerably. Cole is one of the safer options on the board and I guess he may not need that sticky stuff as badly as I thought he did after all.
B. I had to give Cole his props, but I will most likely lean more towards my SP2 than my SP1 when given the choice. My SP2 for FanDuel tonight is Aaron Nola ($10,000) who will be throwing against one of the worst teams in the majors, the Arizona Diamondbacks. We are getting a massive $1,200 discount on a pitcher that has similar strikeout upside, in a much better matchup. That is tough to pass up, although I expect Nola to likely carry more ownership than Cole in tournaments as a result. Nola owns a 3.34 SIERA that trails only Cole on the entire slate when we adjust for sample size. His strikeout rate of 29.3% is good for third on the evening as well, so the upside is definitely there for tournaments if the ownership does not get out of control.
C. While Musgrove or Gausman would be the easiest options for my SP3, I am going to take an absolute flyer on Andrew Albers ($5,500). This will be double A’s second appearance in the majors after being called up from Triple A (see what I did there). Albers had a stellar K:BB ratio in the minors, and was immediately thrown into the fire for four innings of long relief when he arrived to the majors. Those four innings went pretty well, as you can assume since he is now drawing a start, and he was able to limit the potent and white hot New York Yankees to only two hits, one walk, and one ER while posting four strikeouts. For the stone minimum price on FanDuel I think double A makes an excellent option in tournaments tonight.
The Bases
A. While I am extremely down on my team’s chances to make the playoffs, the Boston Red Sox bats are finally starting to heat up a bit and they draw the easiest matchup of the entire night. Logan Allen will be pitching for the Cleveland Indians and he has the highest SIERA of any pitcher taking the mound tonight, 5.56. His ERA is 9.13 and his walk rate is nearly equal to his extremely low strikeout rate. The Red Sox have let me down from a betting and DFS perspective time and time again this season, but this spot is just too tough to pass on.
B. A pitcher with a SIERA that is not much lower than Allen is Matt Manning of the Detroit Tigers, who will be throwing against the powerful bats of the Toronto Blue Jays. When we have the worst pitchers on the slate throwing against some of the best offenses in baseball, we really should not overthink this. On such a massive slate, ownership is bound to be more spread out so I tend to worry less about that aspect as well and just try to “play the best plays” as they say. Manning owns a 5.44 SIERA, 12% strikeout rate, and 7% walk rate. While the walk rate is low, the Blue Jays should hit quite a few dingers in this spot.
C. The final team that I will be looking to target on FanDuel tonight is the St. Louis Cardinals, who will be taking swings against Dillon Peters and the Pirates bullpen. Peters has an artificially low ERA, as his 5.24 SIERA certainly does not support a 1.86 ERA. His strikeout rate is low and his walk rate is high, which is a common theme amongst pitchers that I like to target with my bats. While he has been able to limit fly balls and hard contact, which has lead to his low ERA, the regression monster is coming for Peters and that Cardinals could easily produce some fireworks tonight.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
