Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Friday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 8/13 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a massive 14 game slate and some huge GPPs across the DFS industry tonight. It looks like the only weather we need to worry about is in the Brewers and Pirates game so I will be avoiding that spot. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. Kicking things off with the top spend-up option at pitcher, we have Zack Wheeler ($11,200) throwing against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Wheeler has been consistently solid this season on his way to a 3.14 (Pi shoutout) SIERA, 29.4% strikeout rate, and only a 5.5% walk rate. While the Reds are not exactly a dream matchup for a pitcher, they do have some strikeouts in their lineup and Wheeler has the skill to shutdown any team in baseball. While we will have to spend quite a bit of salary cap on him, he is definitely the safest pitcher on the slate if we are able to find some cheap bats that allow us to afford him.
B. A solid pitcher that draws a better matchup than Wheeler is Robbie Ray ($10,700). While Ray is not quite at the same level as Wheeler, he is definitely close and also owns a slightly higher strikeout rate of 30.2%. We get similar upside from a pitcher that will save us $500 salary on FanDuel and is also in a dream matchup against the Seattle Mariners who are another one of those teams that seems to have given up. Ray is currently listed as an even larger favorite than Wheeler, likely due to his matchup, and while I do not expect him to be low owned, he is always a somewhat boom or bust option that works great for tournaments.
C. While my SP3 will not save us much salary off of some of the top guys, we do have some cheap bats in solid spots that allow us to afford to spend up at pitching. At this time in the season, I will continue to target pitchers who are facing teams that were big sellers at the trade deadline. Shane McClanahan ($9,500) will be throwing against the Minnesota Twins, and while the Twins do still have some solid hitters in their lineup, they are clearly not making a playoff push as they shipped off Nelson Cruz to the Rays at the deadline. Shane owns a solid 3.63 SIERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and an 8% walk rate. The Rays are hot and should put him in a solid spot to earn the win, and the Twins are not really trying very hard to win baseball games these days.
The Bases
A. I will kick off my bats section with a bit of a BOG (Boots on the ground) take, as I live just outside of Boston and man is it extremely hot and humid out there this week. The Boston Red Sox not only draw a pristine hitting environment from a weather perspective, but they also draw one from an opposing pitching perspective as they draw a matchup against Spenser Watkins. The Red Sox have been slumping very hard lately, and outside of their 20 run outburst the other night, they literally cannot buy a win on the baseball diamond or put up runs. I expect that to change tonight, and I am hoping that their recent performance leads us to lower ownership in this ideal spot for run production.
B. A team that I expect to be much less popular than the Red Sox on FanDuel is the Detroit Tigers as they take swings against Zach Plesac. Plesac has been a solid pitcher in the past, but he just does not have it this season. He has struggled to a 4.73 SIERA, a painfully low 15.6% strikeout rate, but has limited walks to just a 5.1% rate. This Tigers team has been making a playoff push as we wind down this 2021 season and their offense has been starting to click. This should be a competitive game against two middle of the road teams, but I will side with the bats facing a pitcher who has really struggled to limit runs this season.
C. The final team that I will be looking to get exposure to tonight from an offense perspective is the Texas Rangers. While the Rangers have had a very rough season and are also a team that has largely given up, we only need to worry about this one game for DFS purposes. This team will be extremely low owned and this lineup does have some hitters that can crush the baseball. Additionally, Cole Irvin is a pitcher that has a strong 3.45 ERA, but his underlying numbers do not support that. His SIERA is up at 4.63, driven by a low 17.4% strikeout rate. While he does not allow many free passes, we are more concerned with hits than walks when looking for fantasy production. Load up on these cheap Rangers bats for tournaments tonight.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
