Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Monday I hope that everyone had a safe and enjoyable 4th! Check out the FanDuel MLB 7/5 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have nine games at our disposal for the main slate that locks at 7:05. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. While it is good to have a short memory when it comes to MLB DFS, I cannot go back to Musgrove after how badly he burned me his last start, so I will be locking Brandon Woodruff ($11,400) into most of my lineups and just moving on tonight. Outside of Musgrove, Woodruff is the only pitcher on the main slate that owns a SIERA below 3.65. He also boasts the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher throwing today along with a low 6.3% walk rate. He also draws a matchup against the Mets who really only have one bat in Alonso that scares us. While he is definitely expensive, Woodruff is easily the safest option on the board tonight.
B. You will see very quickly why Woodruff is the safest option, because after him and Musgrove, our next best option is dropping all the way down to Dylan Cease ($8,400). Cease has been pitching pretty well lately and draws a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who may be without their best hitter since Cruz was a late scratch from the lineup yesterday. If Cruz is out, then I do really like this spot for Dylan and would not mind mixing him into FanDuel lineups where we want to spend for our bats. Cease owns a serviceable 3.81 SIERA, solid 29.3% strikeout rate, and a slightly elevated 9.9% walk rate. While 9.9% sounds better than 10%, that is still a high free pass rate, which definitely worries me, but the price discount still piques my interest in Cease on Monday night.
C. If you can put an extra $400 of salary to very good use with your hitters on FanDuel tonight, then I do not mind Kolby Allard ($8,000) as my SP3 option tonight. Allard owns a SIERA similar to Cease’s, as his sits at 3.80 to go along with a mediocre strikeout rate of 23.2% but a solid walk rate of only 5.2%. That walk rate is actually the lowest of any pitcher taking the mound today, so do not expect Detroit to generate much offense unless they are making consistent solid contact on the ball. That will be tough to do against Allard’s elite 29.1% hard contact rate, so while the strikeout upside may not be there, Allard should be able to limit runs and eat innings very well against Detroit tonight.
The Bases
A. The bats are pretty straightforward tonight, as we have three teams in some excellent spots that are reasonably priced on FanDuel. My rankings of these teams will more come down to ownership than matchup, since all of these matchups are juicy. The first is the Philadelphia Phillies, who get the pleasure of taking swings against Zach Davies tonight. Davies is a gas can who rocks a massive 5.61 SIERA, very low 15.2% strikeout rate, and a walk rate of 12.1% that is approaching the same level as his K rate. This Phillies team should have a field day here, and I am not quite sure why they are listed as underdogs so that is a plus money bet that I will definitely be on tonight as well.
B. The second team in a dream spot on Monday night is the Kansas City Royals as they take on Vladimir Gutierrez. Vlad owns a 5.35 SIERA, 17.6% strikeout rate, and 11.2% walk rate. The common theme with all three of my stacks tonight is that they are facing pitchers with higher SIERAs and walk rates, accompanied by low strikeout rates. That is a recipe for success for the opposing team, and the Royals are listed as slight favorites in this spot despite the Reds clearly having the more potent offense. While it feels like every time I roster Perez he throws up a goose egg, I will be going back to the well with the Royals tonight in many of my builds.
C. The final team that I am looking to target tonight is of course the San Diego Padres who have the pleasure of facing Jon Lester. If you are in our MLB Discord, then you know how much the Win Daily staff loves targeting Lester, especially with an offense as filthy as the Padres. Lester currently checks in with a 5.23 SIERA, 15.3% strikeout rate, and 8.6% walk rate over the last two seasons. This Padres offense can light up talented pitchers with ease, so just imagine what we can expect them to do to Lester. Tatis and Machado go off for 20+ FanDuel points seemingly every game, and I would expect that to be the case again tonight.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
