Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Monday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 7/26 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We start off the work week with a smaller seven game slate that offers very limited pitching options. We also continue our string of having zero weather concerns which is always nice as well. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. With limited pitching options tonight, I am more inclined to just pay up at pitcher, which is something that I generally do anyway. The pricing is very interesting at the top as we look across the two main sites, as the top two arms will cost us vastly different salaries. Luis Garcia ($10,000) is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but he sits far behind my SP2 on FanDuel. Garcia owns the second highest strikeout rate on the day today and is facing one of the worst offenses in the Seattle Mariners. I love taking the savings that we get with him on FanDuel for Monday night.
B. The clear-cut SP2 for tonight on FanDuel is Shohei Ohtani ($11,000), and the decision here comes down to pricing more than anything else. I feel as though the $1K salary savings is enough to push Garcia ahead to SP1, as both have juicy matchups from a pitching perspective. Ownership will also come into play when we make this decision, and obviously if you are making multiple lineups then it is prudent to get plenty of exposure to both of these arms. Ohtani owns the lone highest strikeout rate on the day and as I mentioned previously, draws a cakewalk matchup against the Colorado Rockies offense that is nothing short of horrible on the road. If you have the salary to spare or expect lower ownership, Ohtani is an excellent option in all formats.
C. The third pitcher that I may look to in a few tournament lineups tonight is German Marquez ($10,200), who will be throwing opposite Ohtani against the LA Angels. Marquez owns a solid SIERA of 3.98 given that he makes half of his starts in Coors Field, and he backs that up with a 24.7% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 9.1% walk rate. Marquez is great at pitching in Coors because he has a very high groundball rate and a very low hard contact rate. Those also serve him well outside of Coors Field, especially in a ballpark that is much less hitter-friendly like Angel Stadium. While he is priced above Garcia, I definitely expect Marquez to have far and away the lowest ownership of my three pitchers on FanDuel tonight.
The Bases
A. I may get accused of being a homer with my top stack of the night, but I do not think I have written up the Boston Red Sox very often at all so far this season. The Red Sox will be taking swings against Thomas Hatch and the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen and I can personally say that the weather in Boston today is hot and humid. While this will be a nice boost to bats in the tiny confines of the greatest ballpark in all of baseball, Fenway Park,
I do not expect the Red Sox to even need help from the weather. Hatch is a callup from Triple-A that is making his first start of the season. I do not know about you, but I would not be thrilled to hear that I am facing the Red Sox in a sweltering hot Fenway Park as my first start in the majors this season.
B. Another strong offense facing a weak pitcher on Monday night is the Houston Astros facing Darren McCaughan. McCaughan is only making his second start this season and he was actually able to limit the Rockies to just one run across five innings in his debut. However, that is where the good news for Darren ends, as he did not record one single strikeout across the 15 outs, which is honestly shockingly bad. That was also the pathetic Rockies, and this is the potent Houston Astros, so I really hope people look at this 1.80 ERA and avoid Houston tonight. The 7.67 SIERA tells us that Darren will not have an ERA under 5 for long, and I expect it to skyrocket tonight.
C. The final team that I will look to target on FanDuel tonight is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will be taking swings against Matt Manning and the Detroit bullpen who are coming off of an ass-kicking at the hands of the Kansas City Royals of all teams. Coming into that series, the Tigers were red hot, and the Twins are not exactly a team headed for the postseason, but I love them at low ownership tonight. Manning owns a brutal 5.71 SIERA that is essentially matched by his 5.79 ERA, accompanied by a 10.5% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. Manning does not do anything particularly well and even though this team is shipping big bats out of town, if sticks like Polanco and Larnach return then I definitely have interest at miniscule ownership.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
