Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Monday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 6/7 breakdown below.
We only have three MLB games taking place today and to be honest, I am not sure why. The “main” slate actually locks at 5:10 today so that we can fit all three games on it, so I will just do a full breakdown of two of the games with angles for us to take instead of my usual three pitchers and three stacks outline. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
KC Royals @ LA Angels
Jackson Kowar ($6,400) will be taking the mound for the Royals and this guy was not even an option on the slate when it was originally posted. FanDuel has since added him as an option but we do not have any major league data on him as he is making his debut. This guy has absolutely smashed at the Triple A level to the tune of an absurd 0.85 ERA. However, that is at the triple A level and this is the big leagues. As we know, these debuts are very volatile and anything can really happen. We also do not have a word on any type of pitch count for Kowar, but I would expect his leash to be somewhat short for a starter. I am fine taking shots on him in GPPs at this price, but he is obviously not safe for cash.
Dylan Bundy ($7,300) is getting the ball for the Angels to start things off, and he is a solid -150 favorite here due to the pitcher that he is facing. Bundy is right around the middle of the pack for almost all pitching metrics for this slate, and his price reflects that. He would not be my first choice here due to our other options that have higher strikeout upside, but he is another arm that I am fine going to in GPPs due to the price and lack of options leading to concentrated ownership.
As for the bats, this game has a significantly higher total than one of our other options on the night, as we are looking at a 9 vs. a 7.5 run total. As such, this will be the game that carries the most ownership in terms of bats, which immediately makes me want to target the other game more frequently in GPPs. If choosing a team to stack here, the clear answer for cash games is the Angels, as they are facing a pitcher making his debut. However, this is not any typical pitcher making his debut as this is a top prospect that could easily come out and sling it, even against an MLB caliber team. I expect the Angels to be the chalkiest team on FanDuel tonight, and for that reason I will look to get more exposure to the KC side in this spot.
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
The late night hammer will start around 10 PM EST, with Adbert Alzolay ($9,900) getting the start for the Cubs. This is the de facto SP1 for Monday night FanDuel contests, as he is the highest priced pitcher with the lowest SIERA and highest strikeout rate. AA is surprisingly listed as a slight underdog in this spot, but I would expect that to change over the course of the day since Ryan Weathers on the other side is due for some serious regression, as I will explain in the next section. While I typically do not like to target pitchers against this Padres offense, Alzolay clearly provides us the most upside on FanDuel tonight.
As I mentioned above, Ryan Weathers ($8,100) will be throwing against the Cubs tonight, and he owns the highest SIERA on the day despite being priced as the fourth most expensive arm of the six. The reason for this is that Weathers has been able to luck himself to a 2.06 ERA, which is clearly not supported by a SIERA of 4.51. With mediocre pitching metrics across the board, we should expect this ERA to be on the rise, and we should not be surprised to see that regression start against the Cubs Monday night.
With the total of this game listed at 7.5, compared to 9 for both of the other games, these bats will almost certainly carry the lowest ownership. The smaller the slate gets, the more concentrated the ownership gets, which gives us even more of a potential benefit if we are able to find lower-owned plays that succeed. For GPPs on Monday, this is the game to target for your bats, and I am already seeing this total rise as it is now at 8 in some spots. I prefer the Cubs stack here as they draw the better matchup against a lower quality pitcher, but the Padres are always a potent offense that can produce runs with the best of them. While I will still be looking to the two earlier games in cash, this game is the GPP late night hammer for sure.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
