Adam Zibuda What’s up everyone, happy Monday and happy May! Check out the FanDuel MLB 5/3 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a solid 10 game main slate that locks at 7:05. Let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. There is only one arm on this slate that has elite level strikeout upside for us to target, and he is unsurprisingly the most expensive and likely chalkiest pitcher on the night. Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) is the only arm with above a 34% strikeout rate throwing tonight, as his 39% K rate goes up against the LA Angels bats.
Glasnow is clearly the top arm on the slate, however the Angels do not strikeout at an extremely high clip. The Rays are only listed as slight favorites, and I think there is merit to fading Glasnow due to ownership. However, I typically prefer to target the best pitcher with some lower owned bats or stacks as opposed to fading the best pitcher due to potential ownership.
B. A pitcher with a much better matchup when it comes to strikeouts is my SP2 on the night, Kenta Maeda ($6,900). Maeda owns a solid 28% strikeout rate, and this Rangers team loves to swing at baseballs and miss. This price point is very appealing, especially for a pitcher with the second-lowest SIERA on the slate.
Maeda has done an amazing job of limiting walks (4.2%) and limiting hard contact (24.4%), which are really the only two things that can get you into trouble against the Rangers. The Twins are also large -180 favorites, so when you combine the salary, matchup, and expected lower ownership, KM is a superb option for our lineups where we want to load up on expensive bats.
C. If Maeda is somehow not cheap enough for you to get the bats that you want, then my SP3 certainly will be. Vincent Velasquez ($6,000) has the third highest strikeout rate on the slate at 30%, which is not something you may ever be able to say again about a pitcher that only costs us $6K.
While the ERA is brutal at 5.83, his SIERA of 4.21 is much more palatable, and shows that he has been the victim of some bad luck. If VV is able to limit the walks that he deals out to this Brewers squad, he should be able to more than easily pay off this insanely low price tag, although we definitely need to keep a close eye on the weather here.
The Bases
A. One of my favorite teams to stack up for tournaments tonight is the San Diego Padres. The Padres will be taking swings against Tyler Anderson, who sports the second highest SIERA on the slate tonight of 5.12. Anderson cannot strikeout opposing batters very well, as his K rate is just 18%.
The most juicy part of Anderson’s repertoire is likely his bottom of the barrel ground ball rate of 32%. This is by far the lowest rate on the entire night, meaning Anderson is the pitcher most likely to allow fly balls. While more fly balls do end up resulting in outs than ground balls, 99.99% of home runs are fly balls, and that is what we are looking for with our stacks.
B. The second team that I will be looking to mix into my batter player pool on Monday night is the Seattle Mariners. While Seattle is not a team that I will look to target often, their prices are always low so it is easy to get them into Glasnow builds. Dean Kremer is someone that many have likely never heard of and that is for good reason, as his 6.42 ERA is a bit unsightly.
While Kremer owns a stronger SIERA of 4.45, he is a fly ball pitcher that allows a few too many free passes. There are a plethora of mediocre pitchers on the slight tonight, but Kremer falls a step below mediocre, which is why I like targeting Mariners bats for Monday night.
C. Lastly, the Philadelphia Phillies are a team that I will look to stack up in tournaments as they face off against Adrian Houser. While Houser is very solid vs. right-handed hitters, there are some lefties in this Philly lineup that we should look to, and that of course starts with Bryce Harper. Didi Gregoious is the only other lefty with some pop in this lineup, so this may be more of a mini stack or one-off situation as opposed to a full stack.
To reiterate, we need to keep an eye on the weather with this game as it could easily PPD. However if we get more positive news on the rain situation, Bryce Harper is one of the best one-off options you will find. Houser has a very low strikeout rate and while his SIERA is not terrible, this is the type of pitcher that Harper has been known to tee off on.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
