Phil Naessens What is up everyone, happy Wednesday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 5/26 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have some weather concerns in NY so I will be keeping a close eye on that, but there are also 7 other games on the main slate that locks at 7:05. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. Kicking things off with one of the best pitchers in major league baseball, the top play for Wednesday evening is Trevor Bauer ($11,500). Bauer should be priced up with deGrom in the $12K+ pricing range on FanDuel, and until he is way up there, then we can continue to target him without really questioning it each time he is starting. He owns a 1.84 ERA, 36.1% strikeout rate, and he limits hard contact to the tune of only 27.7%. The matchup does not really matter when it comes to Bauer, but Houston is not a team that would scare me off of targeting him by any means.
B. I really wish Rodon was pitching on the main slate, but he is pitching earlier in the day so my SP2 is Tyler Glasnow ($10,700). Since ownership naturally gravitates towards the highest priced pitcher each slate, Glasnow will likely save us both salary and ownership in this spot. With some of the offenses on the main slate tonight, we could use the $800 savings that we get by fading Bauer for Glasnow. While he is not quite as elite at limiting runs, Glasnow actually owns higher strikeout and swinging strike rates than Bauer, so the upside is clearly there.
C. My SP3 on the night will save us even more salary cap, as I will be looking to Marcus Stroman ($8,500) in lineups where our stacks are expensive. While Stroman is not exactly what we would categorize as an “ace”, he does still own a 2.73 ERA which I bet many would be surprised to hear. However, his fantasy production really hinges on eating innings and limiting runs, as his strikeout rate is pretty low. His ground ball and hard contact rates are absolutely elite, so as long as he can keep the Rockies off the scoreboard he should be able to pay off this salary on FanDuel.
The Bases
A. If we ignore ownership and just look at the numbers for a moment, the top stack on the slate is clearly the Cleveland Indians. The Indians are taking swings against Jose Urena, who owns the highest SIERA and sixth highest ERA on the docket. Add to this by far the lowest strikeout rate, and a walk rate that is only about five percentage points lower, and we have a recipe for a stack that will generate plenty of traffic on the base paths Wednesday night.
B. The second team that I will be looking to stack on FanDuel tonight is the Washington Nationals. The Reds will be tossing out gas can Jeff Hoffman to face this team tonight, and this is a matchup that the Nationals batters will feast on. Hoffman sports the absolute worst ERA on the main slate of 6.05, and he surrenders free passes along with fly balls in bunches. While Hoffman does have a lower SIERA, I would not expect positive regression to strike for him tonight.
C. Switching right over to the other side of the same game, the Cincinnati Reds are a great team to stack tonight and I love game stacking both sides of this matchup. We have two of the worst pitchers on the night facing two pretty solid offenses, and I would also side with over 9.5 runs here. Look at that, a free sports betting pick baked into a DFS article. While Joe Ross has a slightly lower ERA than Hoffman, they are essentially equally poor at pitching in the major leagues. Their stats actually line up surprisingly well, so if we like one side of this game we should automatically like the other.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
