Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Friday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 5/14 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a huge 13 game slate to end the work week, with thankfully no weather concerns to worry about and a 7:05 lock. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. I will be returning to the well with a pitcher that I feel like I have written up quite a bit so far this season, Tyler Glasnow ($10,500). This price on FanDuel is more than reasonable for the best pitcher on the slate, sorry Max Scherzer. Glasnow owns a lower SIERA of 2.88, and a higher strikeout rate of 38.8%, than Scherzer, and he is in the prime of his career where Scherzer is starting to wane. While the walks and fly balls have been a bit of a concern, this price (and hopefully ownership) discount off of mad Max is just way too good to pass on.
B. My SP2 on Friday evening is Joe Musgrove ($8,000), who surprisingly also owns a lower SIERA and higher strikeout rate than Max Scherzer. This price is insanely low for the pitcher with arguably the second highest ceiling on the entire slate. One of my favorite stacks below is the Padres, who are always expensive across the DFS industry, so playing Joe is a great way to help afford them. Unlike Glasnow, Musgrove has been elite across the board throughout the last two seasons and he is easily my favorite GPP play after factoring in ownership.
C. My final pitcher for FanDuel tonight is Clayton Kershaw ($11,000). While he has been a bit up and down this 2021 season, this is a great spot for Kershaw to throw a vintage performance against the Miami Marlins. Kershaw is listed as a massive favorite here, which is of course partially due to the bats that he has backing him up. With an offense like this, a pitcher can usually afford to take a few more risks, which can lead to more strikeouts if they break in his favor. While Kershaw does take a step down in terms of strikeout upside when compared against other aces tonight, I expect him to carry low ownership as well.
The Bases
A. While losing Tatis is obviously a big hit, I have a feeling that it will lead to many DFS players overlooking this San Diego Padres lineup in the near future. This lineup is still stacked with bats like Grisham, Cronenworth, Machado, and Pham, and while the bottom portion of the order gets a bit ugly, I love the 1-4 stack here. Johan Oviedo has not thrown the ball well at the major league level, sporting a SIERA near 5.0 and a low 17% strikeout rate. This is one of the best matchups for an offense to have tonight, and I expect ownership to be extremely low.
B. My second favorite team to stack on FanDuel for Friday night is the San Francisco Giants. I do not think a single person could have predicted the start that this team is off to, but this is baseball and anything can really happen. This Giants team is still reasonably priced across the DFS industry, and a matchup against Tyler Anderson is always very favorable. Anderson has been able to limit hard contact, but that is where the positives end. He surrenders a plethora of fly balls, owns the worst SIERA on the slate, and also does not strike out batters at a very high clip. Target these Giants bats as they look to keep their 2021 hot streak rolling.
C. The last team that I will be looking at on Friday night is once again the Philadelphia Phillies. While the Phillies let me down on Wednesday, they now play in East Coast Coors Field. This ballpark has hot, humid weather and the winds are blowing out as well, just to put the icing on the cake for us. This run total is up there with Coors, as it should be, and Steven Matz has by far the highest ERA on the slate. While his SIERA is significantly lower, this is not an environment where we should expect his ERA to regress. Target any of these Philly bats, who are essentially playing in Coors minus the price hike.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
