Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Monday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 5/10 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a bizarre slate tonight with only six games on the schedule and a lock time of 6:35, so keep an eye on the clock this evening. The only weather concern is of course in the game that we will all have our eyes on the most since it is in Coors Field and we will have to watch the radar because this game could easily PPD. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. With the short slate that will potentially become even smaller, I will keep this article on the shorter side and avoid recommending plays from the Coors game that may very well be postponed. If Coors does play, then obviously the hitters from the Padres and Rockies will both be excellent options, pending ownership.
Given everything that I said above, our default SP1 tonight is Tyler Mahle ($8,900). Mahle is facing the absolutely abysmal Pirates offense, and he owns the lowest SIERA and highest strikeout rate outside of Coors tonight. This will be an extremely chalky play, especially if Coors is cancelled, but there is really no way around listing Mahle as our top option tonight.
B. There is only one other arm tonight that I can confidently recommend outside of Coors on FanDuel and that is Alex Wood ($8,900). Interestingly enough, the clear top two pitchers tonight have the exact same salary.
Wood is facing off against the Texas Rangers who we know are no strangers to striking out. The Rangers do have more punch than the Pirates, but so does my local little league team. Wood has done a decent job of limiting damage, and while his 24.5% strikeout rate is not quite as high as we like to see, the rest of his pitching metrics are elite so we can use him as a pivot if Mahle ownership is too high.
C. My SP3 tonight is reserved for GPPs only, as Luis Garcia ($8,000) is not someone that I expected to be writing up at all this MLB season. Garcia does own a 3.16 ERA, but also sports a higher 4.15 SIERA. On FanDuel we may be able to use that extra $900 salary, so I can see mixing in the lower-owned Garcia into some of our lineups.
Garcia actually owns a slightly higher strikeout rate than Wood, and while the walks can be a concern, the 13% swinging strike rate and 33% hard contact rate are very solid. Garcia will easily be the lowest owned of my three pitchers, so if you are targeting chalky bats then he is a solid way to differentiate a bit.
The Bases
A. My top team to stack on FanDuel for Monday night is the Houston Astros who will take swings against Jose Suarez and the LA Angel’s bullpen. Suarez has an obvious sample size problem with his 38.57 ERA and 7.88 SIERA, but this is not a great major league baseball pitcher.
I will not be highlighting more of Suarez’s stats since they are ludicrous due to the aforementioned sample size issue, but the Astros are one of the most talented offenses in the MLB and they are facing a gas can pitcher. This is all we really need to know to stack this team up confidently for Monday night.
B. A pitcher that we do not have a small sample size with and one that we know is confirmed bad is Mitch Keller. Keller will be throwing against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night and while this game is not being played in the Great American Smallpark, this is still an excellent spot for offensive production.
Keller has the worst sample size-adjusted SIERA on the slate at 5.86, which means his 4.70 ERA could be due to get even worse. With a walk rate that is nearly as high as his weak 20% strikeout rate, Keller is bound to surrender plenty of activity on the base paths. I love the Cincinnati stack as a lower owned pivot off of Coors.
C. My final team on the night to stack or mix in as one-offs on FanDuel is the Baltimore Orioles. While I hate recommending teams that are facing the Red Sox, Martin Perez is such a hittable pitcher that I have to have interest in Baltimore tonight.
With a 5.07 SIERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, and double-digit walk rate, Perez will hopefully be out of this rotation once my man Chris Sale makes his long-awaited return. While the Orioles are not a team that routinely piles on runs, their prices and ownership will reflect that which is why they are a great way to help us target a top-tier arm and some expensive bats.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
