Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Hump Day. Check out the FanDuel MLB 4/12 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. The main slate is a bit smaller with 7 games tonight and locks at 7:05 PM, so let’s get to it!
The Aces
A. Unfortunately, one of my favorite pitchers tonight is Josh Fleming, who is not available in the player pool. Since we had such strong pitching yesterday, it is to be expected that today is a bit lighter in terms of elite arms. With that said, Zach Plesac ($8,300) is a solid option on Wednesday night for FanDuel. Plesac owns an extremely low 2.11 ERA, and while his SIERA indicates that he is due for some regression because it is a bit higher at 3.51, this is still one of the best marks of any pitcher on the day. The White Sox got absolutely blanked last night and scored 0 runs, so they are ice cold coming into this matchup.
B. The second pitcher on the main slate that I am looking to target is Charlie Morton ($8,500). While the game between these two teams last night exploded for a plethora of runs, I do not expect that to be the case tonight. Morton is a massive -230 favorite, he has a strong SIERA in the context of this slate, and he has done a great job at limiting hard contact. While avoiding the recency bias of last night, the Marlins are not typically an offense that we are scared to target with competent pitchers.
C. Dropping down to the mid tier, the lowest I would go at pitching tonight is Carlos Rodon ($8,300). Rodon had a tummy ache after lock for his scheduled start on Monday so he was a late scratch. Looks like he was able to take some Pepto and recover so he will be starting tonight. That is pretty soft, so keep an eye on him leading up to game time to make sure he actually plays because he is clearly a loose cannon who can get a paper cut and use it as an excuse to miss a start. I still like his strikeout stuff for tonight and the price point is juicy.
The Bases
A. Since the pitching is a bit lackluster tonight, there are a massive amount of options for us to target with stacks. When this is the case, I tend to worry a bit less about ownership than when there are only one or two weak arms pitching for the night. Kohei Arihara is one of the gas cans taking the mound, but it is just tough for me to recommend this Rays team that has been so weak to start the season. The Rays were barely able to scrape together any runs against Kyle Gibson last night, which is very concerning. For that reason, I will be looking to the Atlanta Braves, who get the pleasure of facing Nick Neidert and his 5.54 SIERA on Wednesday night.
B. My second favorite stack of the night is once again the LA Dodgers. This team is going to be chalky almost every night, but for good reason, as we saw them explode for a few homers and 7 runs on Tuesday evening. Jon Gray has really struggled recently, even outside of Coors Field, as he sports a 5.24 SIERA and a pathetic 15.5% strikeout rate. That will simply not get the job done against the best offense in the majors.
C. The final team that I am looking to mix into stacks tonight is the Philadelphia Phillies. David Peterson will be getting the ball for the Metropolitans, and he is a pitcher that is due for regression given that his SIERA is a full run worse than his ERA. Combine this with his low strikeout rate and high walk rate and we have a perfect opportunity to attack a below average arm.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock so feel free to shoot me a DM!
