Happy Friday folks!We’re getting to the end of our condensed MLB season but we still have a little more fun left tonight as I help you navigate a nine game slate with some stud arms and some favorable weather games, which if you have read my articles before you know that in the era of “launch angle” I lean into that a bit more that some folks do. If you’re interested in the physics behind that feel free to reach out on our discord page or find me on Twitter using the handle @stoweby. I am already running a bit behind today so I won’t waste any more time, here is my FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown For 9.25
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FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.25 Pitching:
Carlos Carrasco, Indians, 10.8K:
I usually like to start with my preferred cash arm and I don’t think we need to look any further than Carlos Carraso against the Pirates. With an implied run total of 2.9 and a history of terrible offensive output there isn’t a safer option on the board. They are bottom three in every single offensive category on the season with the exception of strikeouts where the sit right smack in the middle. Carrasco has given us no less than 40 FD points in four of his last five with the only dud against the Cubs on the 15th and even then we got 28 FD points. My only concern is whether or not managers will scale back pitch counts at the end of the season to make sure their rotations are ready for the playoffs so I’ll keep an eye on that leading to first pitch.
Chris Bassitt, Athletics, 8.6K:
In another cash spot if you need to pay down tonight I’m taking a look at Bassitt against the Mariners. He’s been on a tear recently scoring 43, 49, and 51 FD points respectively in each of his last three starts and his price hasn’t adjusted in the same way you see from many others for some reason. Seattle is much like Pittsburgh in that you can pick any offensive category and you will see them near the bottom of the list in all of them. Home Runs (56, 5th worst), OBP (.310, 5th worst), and Slugging (.371, 3rd worst) are just a few that I can reference but you get the idea. Vegas seems to agree with a 3.3 IRT and Bassitt has great splits this season against RHB which the Mariners are running out six of tonight so look for him to be a bit chalky but also safe for anyone paying cash. I still may run him in GPP’s due to the recent upside as well so don’t count that out.
Jose Urquidy, Astros, 6.8K:
Now for my GPP target, I have a feeling we’re going to be seeing a very top heavy approach to pitching tonight with all of the big arms going. Let’s say what I said earlier happens and many of the pitchers up top end up having their pitch count limited a bit, not much, lets say 85 pitches instead of 100 just to be safe and to get ready for the playoffs. Urquidy has been getting stretched out in the opposite direction since entering the rotation pitching no less than 6 innings in his last three starts. During that run we also have a seven inning, seven K, one earned outing against these same Rangers 10 days ago and like my above two arms the Rangers rank in the bottom three of all offensive categories and the are even worse in terms of strikeouts sitting at seventh with 515 which gives Jose a much need boost to his K-Rate on FanDuel where the value is greater.
FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.25 Stacks and Bats:
Braves:
Let’s start with the highest implied total of the night. I think the Braves are going to be the overwhelming favorite tonight in terms of stacks and for good reason. Chris Mazza does not look like he belongs in the majors right now. He has given up 15 earned and 13 walks in 25 innings of work over 8 outings. Add favorable weather conditions and a Braves lineup that is clicking at the right time and it will likely get ugly in a hurry. All of the Braves are in play here but the ones who stand out are Travis d’Arnaud, Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies by the numbers. But you can really roll with whatever stack you can afford here. The Braves have gone off top to bottom on several occasions this season, especially over the last couple of weeks.
Yankees:
Another pretty chalky lineup is non other than Yankees. Sandy Alcatrana has been a pretty serviceable pitcher for the Marlins this season goin at least six innings in 5-6 games and only allowing one earned in 4-6 starts. But the Yankees lineup is healthy and loaded top to bottom with guys that can end your night in a hurry. I prefer the top of the order for obvious reasons with guys like DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit, but the entire order is in play much like the Braves above.
Royals:
With my first two stacks being so chalky I need to go a little more under the radar here and I like what the Royals are bringing to the table tonight. with an implied run total of 4.7, hitting against a very up and down Spencer Turnbull, and the best weather conditions of the night (winds out to right at over 10mph) I like the value they provide. Salvador Perez has been dominant as of late and I will gladly play him as a catcher even though I typically avoid them on FanDuel. He’s had five HR’s in his last seven games and two day with over 50 FD points in that same stretch and two others of 22 and 28 respectively. Whit Merrifield, Adelberto Mondesi, Jorge Soler, and Franchy Cordero all grade out pretty well against Turnbull and can easily take advantage of the heavy winds tonight in KC.
Others to consider: Always Dodgers, Twins, Athletics
Favorite Pitcher:
Cash: Carlos Carrasco
GPP: Jose Urquidy
Favorite Stack: Braves
Favorite Chalk Player: Ronald Acuna Jr.
Favorite Low Owned Player: Adam Duvall
Salary Saver: Franchy Cordero
Home Run Call: Salvador Perez
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel main slate breakdown for 9.25 . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!