Uriah Wesson 
Happy Friday folks! So did everyone run to the store and grab your kites? You’re going to see a very common theme for me today in this 12 game slate and that is targeting good players in positive weather conditions, specifically wind. Most of the games today are going to have winds between 10-15 miles an hour and we are going to take advantage of the extra benefit that provides us. I am already running a bit behind today so I won’t waste any time, here is my FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown For 9.18
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Tonight, we have an abundance of bats in a 12 game slate so you can likely choose an option and feel decent about ownership tonight. In terms of pitching I’ve been pretty successful when taking weather into consideration this season. Not that it makes it harder to make contact or anything, but in this day and age where everyone spends their off-seasons learning how to increase their launch angle it makes negative wind conditions more important than ever before. We’re in the era of the long ball and that provides us an extra leverage point that not everyone will be looking at.
FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.18 Pitching:
Game Note: On days like today I can not stress the science behind the increased launch angle and the effects of wind. I know plenty of you have heard it from myself and other writers but every 5 mph increases or in decreases fly ball distance by around 20 feet.
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs, 9.3K:
The first guy on my list tonight for a number of reasons is Kyle Henricks. He’s been extremely consistent giving you at least 40 FD point in each of his last three outings and he has upside against strikeout prone teams such as Twins as evidenced by a 64 point outing against the Brewers where he threw a complete game shutout with 9 K’s. We also have some of the best conditions of the night with sustained winds blown in at no less than 10 mph with some of the most notorious launch angle guys in the MLB. I really like him for my cash arm today.
Steven Matz, Mets 5.9K
This one is not for the faint of heart as Matz has looked terrible in the majority of his outings with the only bright spot being against these same Braves in his season debut. His metrics however match up perfectly with the Bravos sporting a 23% K-rate against righties with Freeman and Albies being the only two lefties in the lineup and splits over the last two seasons that present overall better numbers against opposite handed bats. While the Braves can score in bunches they can also strike out the same way sitting 5th in the majors with 466 strikeouts. Once again conditions provide extra protection with winds blowing in at almost 15 mph for the duration of the game negating the long ball.
Tyler Glasnow, Rays, 10.1K
Tyler has been a very up and down story this season. One day he is giving up five earned in four innings against Boston and next thing you know he is striking out 13 in seven innings against the Orioles. It drives you nuts but it also makes him a great GPP play in the right conditions which I think we have tonight. If people are just staring at the average points today I think most will go to Zach Plesac at just 300 more against the Tigers and for us that’s fine. Baltimore is not the pushover that they used to be sitting right around league average in most offensive categories but there is not a single bat who matches up well against Glasnow. As a team, against power arms the have a .210 avg and .373 slugging which is going to be a problem as almost 60% on Tyler’s pitches are four seam fastballs in the high 90’s. His fly ball rate is a touch high but not out of control at 35%, but once again continuing my theme of the day we have wind blowing in hard from right around 13 mph negating the fly ball risk.
FanDuel Main Slate Breakdown for 9.18 Stacks and Bats:
Dodgers:
I know that we flippantly have a habit of saying “always Dodgers”, and for good reason. They are a threat to go off on any evening but tonight the odds are stacked in favor of this result as we have a perfect storm. We’re in Colorado, wind blowing out to right field at around 10 mph, and an opposing pitcher in Ryan Castellani who is near the bottom in every measurable category that we look at for pitching. Vegas to this point is in agreement with a mammoth 7.5 implied run total. Instead of listing the names individually I’m just going to say that 1-9 is in play tonight. It’s just a matter of who you can afford to play.
Rockies:
Right to the other side of this contest the Rockies are similarly in a fantastic spot to make this game look like an NFL total when it is all over with, Mitch White has pitched a whopping one inning in the bigs and his minor league stats are….well….underwhelming. In 16 appearances last year in AAA he allowed 73 hits, 13 of which were HR’s, and 24 walks in 63 innings, for an ERA of 6.50. The normal guys, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Charlie Blackmon are firmly in play if you can afford them and I personally like the idea of using a wraparound stack in this instance with a Ryan McMahon, Tony Wolters, or whoever ends up at the bottom of the order tonight in a GPP lineup.
Athletics:
There are a ton of chalk plays tonight so I wanted to give you something a little different and the Athletics match up very well against the Giants Logan Webb. He’s been successful with keeping his fly ball rate down (26.7%) but with his primary pitches being a 4-seamer and change-up with his sinker being his least utilized pitch I don’t think that’s telling the whole story. He has some very interesting splits where right handed bats fare much better as well giving up a .306 BA, .510 SLG, and .892 OPS in two seasons. That puts guys like Marcus Semien, Mark Canha, and Robbie Grossman and solid options. But don’t be shy about using Matt Olsen and Sean Murphy also as their individual metrics skew favorably tonight. We also have some nice weather conditions with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center.
Others to consider: Yankees, I would have written them up as well but what good does writing the three chalkiest plays do for you guys in GPP’s?
Bonus Stack: With two of my three arms being on the more expensive side I felt like you guys needed more cheaper and possibly under the radar stacks with the monster totals we have going tonight. The Rangers side of the Rangers/Angels fit the bill. The Angels Jaime Berria does not look like a competent arm and he is especially bad against right handed bats. In fact he has some of the worst numbers I’ve seen in the last two seasons in any split among ANY starting pitchers. 51% fly ball, 42% hard hit and a .349 ISO against righties. He’s a finesse pitcher who lives up in the zone which is a terrible combination. That means guys like Leody Taveras, Nick Solak, and Anderson Tejeda are dirt cheap options to look at and although FanDuel says Jimmy Hergert is starting for the Rangers he is merely the “opener”. Wes Benjamin will be the left handed arm doing the bulk of the work and aside from Anthony Rendon the Angels have looked awful against lefties, even Trout this season (.227 avg, .386 slugging in 2020 in 54 plate appearances) has looked bad with a team split of .234 average and .411 slugging in 651 plate appearances. So apart from the one off I’d avoid tonight.
Favorite Pitcher:
Cash: Kyle Hendricks
GPP: Depends on if you need the savings. If paying up for bats Matz, if not Glasnow
Favorite Stack: Dodgers (Chalk), Athletics (lower owned)
Favorite Chalk Player: Corey Seager
Favorite Low Owned Player: Mark Canha
Salary Saver: Tony Wolters
Home Run Call: Can I just say Dodgers???? If Not Cody Bellinger
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports FanDuel main slate breakdown for 9.18 . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
