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Expert Picks: 2025 WM Phoenix Open

The PGA TOUR heads to the Arizona desert this week for one of the most exciting events of the season—the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Known as “The Greatest Show on Grass” and “The People’s Open”, this tournament is famous for its raucous crowds and thrilling finishes.

Then, of course, there is the infamous par-3 16th hole, where thousands of fans create an electric stadium-like atmosphere. Those crowd were sent into raptures here in 1997, when Tiger Woods created one of his many iconic moments:

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Here is Tiger’s recollection of that famous hole-in-one, along with his tale of receiving a great assist from the fans in shifting a “moveable obstruction”:

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Defending Champion and Key Contenders

Nick Taylor returns to defend his title after a dramatic playoff victory over Charley Hoffman in 2024. Taylor, who also secured a win at the Sony Open in Hawaii earlier this season, aims to continue his impressive recent form.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, a two-time Phoenix Open champion (2022 and 2023), is a strong favorite. After recovering from a hand injury sustained during the holiday season, Scheffler showcased his resilience with a top-10 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Other notable participants include Hideki Matsuyama, a two-time winner at TPC Scottsdale and victor of the season-opening Sentry Tournament, and Justin Thomas, who boasts seven consecutive top-20 finishes at this venue.

Course Overview & Key Stats

TPC Scottsdale, a par-71 course measuring 7,261 yards, has been the tournament’s home since 1987.

The wide fairways play firm, perhaps especially so this year with little rain in 12 months. Combined with fairly benign rough mean, you can pull driver here readily. However, extra distance isn’t a huge asset given the rollout obtained from firm conditions. The main thing off the tee is to avoid the big miss to prevent finding a stray cactus or a watery grave.

It only take a cursory glance at previous leaderboards to realise a couple things. Firstly, with several multiple winners here, that course history is stickier here than most venues. Secondly, that this is a course dominated by good ball strikers.

Particularly key is SG:APP 150-200 yards. Golfers will see between 8-9 approach shots on average within that range. These green complexes double in size compared to last week’s Pebble Beach, with an average over 7,000 sq ft. They are often multi-tiered as well. This sees an increased importance on not just finding the green, but the right area and shelf on the surfaces.

Names such as Scheffler, Matsuyama, Koepka, Fowler, Thomas, and Mickelson all point to some of the best iron players on the Tour. Your approach is the way to separate yourself from the pack at TPC Scottsdale.

Putting does receive a higher weighting at this course. The combination of needing to lag putt, avoid three-putts, and make your birdie opportunities is imperative. However, a notable number of “Team No Putt” have managed to find success on these relatively fast surfaces.

Comp Courses

TPC Scottsdale, TPC Summerlin, TPC Craig Ranch, Colonial Country Club, TPC San Antonio, Black Desert Resort and the American Express rotation courses.

Expert Picks

As on of the most enjoyable events on the PGA Tour, the 2025 WM Phoenix Open promises to provide an entertaining and exciting tournament.

Here are the WinDailySports Expert’s Picks for the 2025 WM Phoenix Open:

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David
Bieleski
Joel
Schreck
Steven
Polardi
Outright WinnerAll E/W, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds

Horschel
Si Woo Kim
Hoge
Novak
Ghim
Woodland
Perez
Scheffler
Matsuyama
Novak
Scottie
Top Finishes MarketsTop 20 on all of the above

Top 40
Ghim
Woodland
Perez
Top 20
Matsuyama
Top 30
Straka
Top 40
Novak
Hodges
T Kim
Stevens
Novak
Match-UpsHall over Min Woo (+110 Caesars)
McNealy over Clark (-120 Bet365)
First-Round LeaderAll E/W, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds

Burns
Straka
Stevens
Woodland
Novak
Hoffman
Dunlap
Hoge
Matsuyama
Hoffman
My 3 Golfer DFS CoreScheffler
Novak
Hoge
Novak
Nick Taylor
Hoffman
Scottie
T Kim
Stevens
DFS Chalk I'm playingScheffler
Tom Kim
N Taylor
Si Woo
Horschel
Novak
Glover
Woodland
Hodges
Scottie
Nick Taylor
Scottie
T Kim
Stevens
DFS Chalk I'm fadingKitayama
Bhatia
Min Woo
Fitzpatrick
Homa
Mitchell
Glover
JT
Spieth
Deki
My Top 3 Sneaky Low-Owned PlaysHall
Ghim
Perez
Dahmen

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