DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
What a fabulous week it was once again for our picks at The European Masters. Alexander Bjork went extremely close to victory, an imperious Ludvig Aberg denying him the win with a stunning final 5 holes. Aberg continues to impress and is surely the most exciting prospect in European golf since Hovland and Rahm burst onto the scene. Masahiro Kawamura was put in these pages at a huge 200/1 and duly finished 8th. For those with 8 place payouts this was reduced slightly from 40/1 due a tie for 8th, but we cash full tickets on a Top 20 and Top 40. Finally, Renato Paratore at 150/1 and Ryo Hisatsune at 80/1 both finished in 13th. That was one shot off two more big place payouts and both were good for Top 20/40 options. Barring the winner, that is just about as good as it gets. With the European Ryder Cup team now set following Luke Donald’s captain’s picks, the attention turns to the magnificent K Club in County Kildare for our Irish Open Picks.
The K Club Course Analysis
The Irish Open changes venues this year, albeit to a familiar and iconic course. The Arnold Palmer North Course at The K Club perhaps most famously hosted the 2006 Ryder Cup. The Europeans romped to a 9 point victory that year. Hopefully, you already got on Europe at +210 per our recommendation in the WinDaily Sports Discord. They have since narrowed to just +125 with multiple players in excellent form.
The course also previously hosted one edition of the Irish Open in 2016 and was the previous host for the European Open between 1995-2007.
Perusing those leaderboards and data, there are a few key metrics that standout. The winner here has also led the field in Greens In Regulation for the last three tournaments. The course puts an emphasis on excellent approach play, particularly from 125-175 yards.
Finding fairways is also a key here. With numerous water hazards of the tee and trees right up to the fairway, keeping the ball in play is imperative. Despite it’s length on paper of 7,441 yards, there are two par 5s over 580 yards eating a lot of that yardage. Conversely, there are no short par 4s seeing an average length of an approachable 438 yards for the par 4s. Nobody has really come here and dominated it with the driver. Driving accuracy should be your guide.
Comp Courses for our Irish Open Picks
Immediately looking at the course, it always strikes me as very similar to the Brabazon Course at The Belfry. With the British Masters held in May, this also provides at least a smattering of similar recent form being held less than 3 months ago. Both rely heavily on excellent approach play and driving accuracy, with each dotted with water hazards significantly in play.
There are also some strong links to leaderboards at the European Masters host Crans-sur-Sierre. Collin Montgomerie, Lee Westwood, Mathias Gronberg all won at both. Michael Campbell won at The K Club and had a 2nd at Crans. Graeme Storm and Paul Lawrie had a runner-up at both. Bradley Dredge and Constantino Rocca both had a runner-up at K Club, then won and also had a 2nd place finish at Crans. Admittedly, some of these names were at the height of their powers in Europe at the time. But the correlation between some of the lower tiered names should not be discounted so readily. This also has the added benefit given the tournament was hosted at Crans just last week, allowing for some strong recent form.
Weather
As always, I should caution any conversation about weather when it comes with Ireland to the simple fact it is more volatile than other regions of the world. Weather does frequently develop over the Atlantic and move over the island, leading to the copious green pastures that Ireland is famous for.
It has also been a notoriously bad summer in the region. Heavy rain should see the rough plenty thick and juicy, with the fairways playing slow and soft. This should lead to a further increase in driving accuracy. Holding the fairway should be easier if found and the penalty for missing more severe.
Thursday AM looks to be the calmest conditions of that day, before winds gradually increase into the evening. Friday promises calm conditions all day with ideal scoring conditions. No strong advantage appears at time of writing for any particular tee-time.
Irish Open Picks
Golf Betting Tips and Suggested Staking
Ryan Fox – Your Irish Open Picks Favourite
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Vincent Norrman
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Thorbjorn Olesen
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (TAB)
Eddie Pepperell – Your Irish Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)
Jorge Campillo
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +450 (TAB)
James Morrison
0.5pt +35000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
And
3pt Top 40 +333 (TAB)
Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt +40000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1100 (TAB)
And
3pt Top 40 +400 (TAB)
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Summary
Thank you reading our Irish Open picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!
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