DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
As another major season draws to a close, the PGA Tour continues onwards for two more regular season events as those on the outside looking in make a last ditch attempt to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs. Admittedly, this is the weakest follow up event to a major we have had all season. One may criticize having an elevated event directly after a major, but it has certainly we have experienced less of the inevitable “major hangover” a week late. And yet, the lower tiered events have proved some of our most successful weeks of the year. Both from a DFS and golf betting perspective, an edge can be gained with more opportunity for misprices and overly condensed ownership. Let’s hope for more of the same from our 3M Open picks!
The 151st Open Championship Recap
The Open Championship was a mix of the good, the bad, and the ugly. The good came from some of our longshot bombs that we like to include on these links courses. We put up 6 headline selections alongside those 7 longshot bombs, which were more focused in weighting on Top 20 and Top 40 stakes. Just one of the main selections missed the cut and 5/7 of the bombs made it to the weekend. Hometown hero Matthew Jordan (200/1) hit the first tee-shot and finished up in 10th. We cashed a Top 40 ticket on him, as we did with Noren (250/1) and Southgate (500/1) who both finished 23rd. We will recommend a couple of Top 20 and Top 40 plays in our 3M Open picks below.
The bad was that all three of those golfers, and others, finished just one shot off some much improved dividends. Jordan was one shot off a full place payout (equivalent odds of 40/1), as was one of our main selections Homa. The same can be said of Noren and Southgate, who both finished one shot shy of cashing Top 20 tickets. Victor Perez also finished one shot off cashing his Top 40 ticket.
The ugly has to go to Shane Lowry, who found a missed cut after a very poor +6 in the 2nd round to exit stage right. It ended a run of top 20s in all majors for 2023, and saw our 6/6 lineup percentage go from 25% to just shy of 10% as he featured in our DFS Core. These 3M Open picks for DFS will be posted in the WinDaily Sports Discord in the 24 hours prior to tournament start.
Trust the Process
Let’s look to end The Open wrap on a positive note before we dive into our 3M Open picks. All considered our process was sound. We were right on the money calling that driving accuracy would be essential for the Hoylake setup. Harman ticks that box in spades, as he did for one of our course comps holding an excellent record of 3 Top 10s at TPC Sawgrass.
Straka in 2nd met our comp of Honda Classic, a tournament he has won and finished 5th in the last two years. Fleetwood has the best SG record at the Honda Classic for any golfer with 10 rounds or more. Emiliano Grillo, who finished 6th, has an 8th there. He also has a 5th at one of our more obscure course comps in Doha Golf Club.
This raises the old adage to trust your process. Simply because one week doesn’t go totally your way shouldn’t necessarily mean the reasoning was wrong. On the basis of our Open Championship preview, Harman was certainly findable. Straka was our last man out in the bombs, where Southgate was preferred at an inflated number. If you are consistently playing selections with an edge, over time that will materialize, as it has in our last several years consistently showing a profit by following our recommended staking plans.
TPC Twin Cities Course Analysis
We should really have sufficient data now to form some idea of who may be successful at TPC Twin Cities for our 3M Open picks. Now entering it’s 5th iteration, we have seen some subtle changes over the years. Mostly, the course has played a little more difficult the last two years than the initial editions. However, much of that can be put down to weather and rain (or lack thereof) entering tournament week.
This course plays decently long for a par 71 at 7,431 yards. There are a number of par 4s over 450 yards and two set to play over 500 yards. Fairways, however, are generous in width. Rough is also child’s play.
Trouble does loom in the numerous water hazards. These feature on 15 out of the 18 holes. This produces a volatile event. It will not be uncommon to see a golfer putting a few double bogeys or worse on the scorecard. There is a constant compromise here between safety off the tee to avoid water and keeping up with the birdies available around here. The aim is to find more of the latter for your 3M Open picks.
The longer length in several of those par 4s does lead to an emphasis on longer irons over wedge play. Mostly, this is contained in a specific range of 175-200 yards. The course ranks as the highest on the PGA Tour within this bracket. There is a further increase of approach shots over 250+ yards, mainly due to the par 5s but also a couple of those longer par 4s.
Course Comps for our 3M Open Picks
Course history here has been less sticky than at other venues. However, I wouldn’t rule this out completely given the relative newness of this event. The Honda Classic is a nice tournament to consider. PGA National is fraught with danger off the tee due to the water in-play. It also is 2nd on tour for approach between 175-200 yards. Noren was 5th there in 2022 and 3rd in his sole appearance here in 2020. Sungjae Im is a winner at PGA National and holds a 15th and 2nd in his two appearances at the 3M Open.
Recent host of the Barbasol Championship, Keene Trace Golf Club, is worth considering. It holds the benefit of ticking off recent form but also over 22% of approach shots occur between 175-200 yards there. Finally, Vidanta Vallarta and the Mexico Open should be included. Tony Finau is a winner at both, and it featured 23% of approach shots in that key bracket. Grillo was 5th there this year and has a 2nd and 3rd at TPC Twin Cities. More on him shortly in our 3M Open Picks.
Weather for our 3M Open Picks
A little bit of a tricky weather week here. Thunderstorms are in the afternoon forecast for the first two days. It has also been very dry in this region, with lower than average rainfall.
Thursday there is forecast to be a brief window of two hours of higher winds in the morning before a calmer period. The early afternoon winds are up. Friday should see the best wind conditions for those out early once again. Winds will also rise as the day goes on.
The misgiving really comes whenever the chance of thunderstorms enters the area. We have these as a decent chance, especially given some of the hotter temperatures currently forecast. Whenever there is thunder in the area, it can really flip any potential weather edge. This can often present a great opportunity for differential plays. However, at time of writing the forecast is still too unclear how long and significant said thunderstorms will be. Further, the dry conditions could mean despite calmer winds in the morning that the course benefits from some moisture to soften greens.
3M Open Picks
Suggested Staking
Sepp Straka – Your 3M Open Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +3500 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
Emiliano Grillo
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
Gary Woodland
2pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
Eric Cole
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
Lucas Glover
1pt E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280
Ryan Gerard
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 TAB
And
2pt Top 40 +300 TAB
Troy Merritt – Your 3M Open Picks Best Value
0.5pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 TAB
And
2pt Top 40 +250 TAB
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Summary
Finally, thank you reading our 3M Open picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!
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