DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
As the PGA Tour goes on it’s short two week off-season, although one could argue it is longer given the lower tiered Fall series coming up. However, there are some excellent DP World Tour tournaments on the horizon. That begins this week for our European Masters picks, held at one of the most picturesque courses on tour in Crans-sur-Sierre. The tournament is worth viewing for the golf course alone. Ryder Cup certainty Matthew Fitzpatrick, a two-time champion here in 2017 & 2018, leads the markets as a short-priced favourite. The field is stacked with those hoping to make Luke Donald’s wildcard selections with Aberg, Meronk, MacIntyre, Perez, Bjork, Paul, and the Hojgaard twins to name a few.
Crans-sur-Sierre Course Analysis
Whether performance on this course should factor into Ryder Cup decision making is up for debate. Frankly, in my view, it should make very little difference. This course is so unique in its design that a strong performance here should not influence Donald whatsoever. In reality, last week’s course is a near perfect doppelganger of what to expect at Marco Simone. And a number of Ryder Cup contenders did raise their hand, including our headline selection Nicolai Hojgaard. Whilst finishing 3rd is appreciated for the place payout, it was a result that in reality should have been much better. He had more than a half dozen misses within 7 feet.
Where Czech Masters host Albatross emphasizes strength off the tee as we will see in Rome, it should play little factor in decision making here. Simply, you could play this entire course and not need to hit driver once if you so choose. Certainly, there are a number of drivable par 4s here. The most realistic of those is reachable with a 2 iron for the longest hitters anyway.
Driving accuracy is mildly more positive. Navigating your way around this short 6,808 yards par 70 is made difficult with these tight and tree-lined fairways. Branches overhang many fairways and there is a high degree of volatility as a result. With the course as short as it is, approach play leans heavily towards wedges.
The greens are miniscule. As such, this is one of the rare occasions where SG: Around The Green displays strong correlations to success. Given green sizing, there is only so much damage you can do with a cold putter. But getting up and down will be a necessity for the eventual victor.
Course Comps for our European Masters Picks
Firstly, when making your European Masters picks do pay close attention to prior course form. This peculiar and quirky test is highly correlated to prior success. So much so, I would rather have a debutant than someone who has played here on several occasions and not found joy. There have been many who have almost become course specialists; seemingly finding success here time and again with next to zero incoming form.
There are further strong correlations between this course and the Kenyan Open. Part of this are due to both being played at altitude, whilst they both also demand driving accuracy and have smaller than average greens. Muthaiga GC has slightly stronger links than Karen CC, but both are good. Campillo won this year and finished 4th here last year. Ashun Wu, who won in Kenya for us the year prior at 50/1, had a 9th and 6th in his first two starts at Crans. Sebastian Soderberg has won at both tournaments, notably beating another Kenya Open winner Lorenzo Gagli when victorious here in 2019.
Those are the most notable comps for our European Masters picks. I also don’t mind taking a look at BMW PGA Championship host Wentworth and the Brabazon Course at the Belfry which hosts the British Masters.
Finally, the Barracuda Championship at Tahoe Mountain Club is played at altitude. Soderberg just finished 10th there, as did Ryo Hisatsune who is on debut here but finished 3rd place at the Kenya Open back in March. This has the added benefit of being played in the last 4 weeks and a downgrade in class, even being an alternative field event on the PGA Tour.
Weather for our European Masters Picks
There appears to be little advantage in the weather forecast this week to influence our European Masters picks. Of course, this golf course is nestled in the heart of the Swiss Alps and it goes without saying that means the weather can change with no notice.
Thursday morning should see still conditions, with some moderate gusts up to 13 mph in the afternoon from 1pm onwards. The one note I would add is that there has been rain in the region the last month. There was more rain on Monday, likely leading to softer conditions. Therefore, Thursday morning should probably present the best scoring conditions.
In saying that, Friday weather looks to offer little resistance. Winds are low all day, remaining at single digits into the afternoon. Given the tangible edge only really appears to be Thursday AM, it doesn’t really warrant too much consideration towards a weather stack.
Omega European Masters Picks
European Masters Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking
Alexander Bjork
2.5pts E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Victor Perez
2.5pts E/W +3500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Ryo Hisatsune
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (Bet365)
Nathan Kimsey
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (Bet365)
Jorge Campillo
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (Bet365)
Masahiro Kawamura
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 40 +225 (TAB)
Renato Paratore
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 40 +275 TAB
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Golfer Profiles
Alexander Bjork – Your European Masters Picks Favourite
A somewhat obvious pick, Alexander Bjork price has been driven down from opening 28s to as low as 20s in places. It is justified. Firstly, Bjork holds a superb record at Crans-sur-Sierre. He has never finished worse than 28th with form here of 16-28-13-16. The incoming form is also promising. The DP World Tour has a 5 week break in their schedule. He returned last week at a bombers paradise, a course that does not suit his very short driving with his game built on accuracy. He finished 14th nonetheless and was the leader after 36 holes.
It continues what has quite easily been Bjork’s best season. Since May, he has finished in the top 10 in 7/10 tournaments. Again, this has included at courses like Marco Simone which favour a stronger driver of the ball. The 8th at the British Masters 8 weeks ago is another positive sign.
The majority of observers, admittedly myself included, would say Bjork has a slim chance of making the Ryder Cup squad. He still firmly believes he is in contention. He eluded to as such in his recent interview at the Czech Masters and was also mentioned by himself recently, stating how his consistency and number of top 10s surely puts him in consideration. That may actually play against him here by creating some extra pressure. Something that Luke Donald will also feel should Bjork enhance his Ryder Cup claims with a victory here, after a season that really has deserved at least one.
Victor Perez
I’ll also side with another Ryder Cup hopeful, who has exited that conversation somewhat these past 3 months. Following a win in 2022 and a 3rd at Marco Simone, he finished 12th in the DP World Tour Championship.
2023 began as it left off with his biggest win to date, claiming a Rolex Series title at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, followed by a 9th at Marco Simone, and a 12th at the PGA Championship.
Just two finishes of 18th and 11th to show in his 8 events since has seen him drop off the radar somewhat. However, notably the 11th came last week at the Czech Masters.
Perez is both long and accurate off the tee, a combination that isn’t completely foreign to success at Crans. Chiefly though, it is the combination of excellent approach play and clutch ability to close that draws me to him at this price. When in contention, Perez has been seen to slam the door shut in the clutch. Not just that in Abu Dhabi, but making multiple outrageous long putts at the Dutch Open.
There is no such thing as SG: Mental Fortitude sadly. But Perez has displayed it in spades. And with a victory surely the only way to bring himself back into Ryder Cup relevance, I’d not be surprised if he somehow produced the remarkable again this week. He sneaks in ahead of Rozner, Edoardo Molinari, and Wallace for me.
Ryo Hisatsune – Your European Masters Picks Best Value
It has been a rather wonderful debut season on the DP World Tour for young Japanese golfer Ryo Hisatsune. The talented 20 year old has made the transition from the Japan Golf Tour with ease, finishing in the top 20 in 44% of his starts.
Much like Bjork, this comes despite lacking some distance off the tee and also similarly finishing 14th at the driver paradise of Albatross last week.
Three recent winners of this event have been course debutants, as Hisatsune is. But much can be gleaned from his limited performance on comp courses. Hisatsune was 3rd at the Kenya Open, victory only hindered by an even par round 3. Noted is the 15th at the British Masters, as are a 10th at the Indian Open, and 10th at the Soudal Open. All came at tree lined courses where driving accuracy is a positive. Further, he again performed at altitude when 10th on the PGA Tour at the Barracuda Championship. Such correlations are rarely as strong for a 80/1 selection, who may become a 4th debutant to win here.
Nathan Kimsey
Having spent one year on the DP World Tour in 2017, Kimsey had been cutting his cloth on the Challenge Tour for 5 years. A much improved 2022 culminated in him winning the Rolex Challenge Tour Grand Final and earning promotion back up to the DP World Tour for this season.
Since then, he has missed only one cut all season with just one week of a rather horrid putting display. A playoff loss to Vincent Norrman on the PGA Tour at the Barbasol Championship would’ve been a fairytale few saw coming to fruition. He followed that with a 25th at attitude in the Barracuda Championship.
I’ll again emphasize the drop in class from PGA Tour to DP World Tour fields. We have perennially seen players return from middling performances in the higher echelon to immediately find success in Europe. Even in the alternative field events, it warrants our attention.
Kimsey profiles nicely here, ranking 3rd in driving accuracy and 5th around the green in this field over the past 3 months. Again, 31st last week was a reasonable effort considering it is a course that simply does not suit a shorter hitter. What was noteworthy was a much improved uptick in his approach play. That is always a key indicator of potential imminent success. No doubt it would be an emotional victory should he complete the task here.
Jorge Campillo
Opening prices on Campillo hitting three figures at some overseas bookmakers was rather astonishing. Yes, his season has fallen off the boil somewhat from the lofty heights of the fist quarter. In that run, he finished in the top 10 for 5 consecutive events. That did include a win, which was notably at our key course comp of the Kenya Open.
Campillo also has a 13th there the year prior, so it is little surprise to see that he has finished 32nd and 4th in his last two appearances at Crans-sur-Sierre. Driving much of that success his the excellent touch Campillo displays around the greens. He ranks 5th in this field for SG: ATG over the last 12 months.
Again, 31st last week at the Czech Masters must be read in some further context to appreciate it was actually rather compelling. It not only is unsuitable for a shorter hitter like him, but he also missed the cut in his only prior appearance. That was in 2014 and one can surmise he took one look and realized it was not the spot for him. This is much more suitable and he could surprise a few at big odds.
Renato Paratore
Following a rather disastrous start to 2022, when he made just 2 cuts in 15 starts and a best finish of 40th, retaining his full DP World Tour card was always going to be a stretch for Renato Paratore. Since then, Paratore has been mixing Challenge Tour tournaments with DP World Tour appearances when able.
Despite 2022 being a rather horrid year, he still managed a 29th at this course. That for me demonstrates his aptitude for this test, where he had previously finished 24-7-MC-MC-12-7. He has never missed a cut at the Kenya Open, an 11th at the Belfry, and a 7th around Wentworth.
Paratore weakness comes off the tee, where he is neither particularly long or accurate. He needs a test that takes driver out of his hands, where his strong short game can come to the fore. He ranks comparatively one of the better options in those metrics for this price range, sitting 25th for SG: ATG and 13th for SG: Putt over the last 12 months.
22nd at Marco Simone was promising given his difficulties off the tee, so he is worth a speculative look at 150/1.
Masahiro Kawamura
Finally, we round out our European Masters picks with another Japanese charge in Masahiro Kawamura.
Kawamura has not been sighted since the two PGA Tour events comingled with the DP World Tour. He missed the cut at Barracuda, although managed an impressive 9th place finish in the Barbasol. It is that boom or bust type result that I appreciate in a golfer priced as high as 200/1.
His two most recent finishes at Crans have been a 21st and 9th. The latter was similarly after 5 weeks of break. The driving accuracy is an asset of his game, ranking 9th in this field over the past 12 months.
Kawamura has a great record in Kenya, with a runner up earlier this year at Muthaiga behind Campillo. That compliments a 14th at the Kenya Savannah Classic hosted at Karen CC in 2021. He also has a surprisingly run at Wentworth, where he holds form of 20-17-18 in his three starts.
The other note from my modelling was Kawamura quietly finding improvements on approach. He has previously lost many strokes in this area, ranking 82nd in this field if looking at the last 24 months. That has continued to gain since, sitting 79th over 12, 67th at 6, and 51st at 3 months.
He has now gained on approach in 3/4 of his most recent tournaments. When it is off, it is off. But, when he is on, he is on in a big way. With his unique swing, it is easy to see why.
That is reflected with 8 top 25s in his 12 made cuts this year. Let’s hope for his ceiling and not his floor this week. I like him for a Top 40 shout at big odds, with a nibble at the juicy 200/1 out there.
Summary
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