jamie calkins 
Euro 2020 Preview
Welcome to Keith’s Euro 2020 Preview. My first soccer article, but what better time to do it than for a big tournament like the Euros. Delayed 1 year because of COVID we have a great 24-team field that features some of the best teams in the world. As is my strategy with soccer I rarely bet individual games but rather will have some tournament-long picks. The draws in soccer really make it difficult and I think there is better value to be had holistically on the tournament-long bets.
The format is similar to the World Cup. Group play with the top-2 teams from each group make it to the round of 16, along with the 4 best 3rd place teams of the 6 groups. Then the games will be single elimination all the way through the final. Below is a breakdown of each group and the odds for each team to win their respective groups. Here is how the teams stack up in group play:
Group A
Italy are the class of this group and have a great chance to win this group. Turkey is really the only team to threaten Italy to win this group, but the Italian midfield is too elite to allow that to happen. Wales on the other hand only have Bale and Ramsey, who are both in poor form as of late and are lacking the class around them they had in 2016 when they made a run.
Picks: Italy to win Group A (-185), Wales to Not Qualify From Group (-134)
Group B
Belgium seems to be the class of this group, however they definitely have some challenges with De Bruyne questionable after his facial injury in the Champions League Final and Eden Hazard’s poor recent form. Denmark plays a good defensive style and can match up well with Belgium, and potentially make a run in this tournament.
Pick: Denmark to Reach Quarters (+120)
Group C
The Dutch were rolling, however with the coaching change to Koeman and then obviously Van Dijk’s injury does not help their chances. Ukraine and Austria have potential to take advantage of this and make a run. North Macedonia is a feel-good story if you want to sprinkle on them making out of the group to root for something that could be the play. This group is tough to gage however and I think the value is on one of the other two teams to take this group
Pick: Ukraine to Win Group (+475)
Group D
This should be an easy group for England to assert their dominance. They need a big tournaments and it should help they play most of their games at Wembley. Croatia has lost some steam since their 2018 World Cup Final appearance and anything less than a Championship appearance would be considered a failure. I don’t think there is enough quality from the other 2 teams in this group to make any damage.
Pick: England to Make Semifinals (+140)
Group E
After being an absolute powerhouse for the better part of 12 years, Spain finally seems to be changing the guard and rebuilding their squad. The surprise omission of Sergio Ramos is questioned by many, as Spain does not have great quality on defense and could have used his leadership/experience. However, they are still a massive favorite in this group. Of the other 3 teams I think Poland would have the best chance to take this group and they definitely have some value there.
Pick: Poland Eliminated in Round of 16 (+140)
Group F
Definitely the “Group of Death” here and the class of the tournament as far as groups go. You have the reigning World Cup Champions (France), the reigning Euro Champions (Portugal), and the 2014 World Cup Champions (Germany). France has almost no weaknesses and are the odds-on favorite to win this tournament. Germany is right behind them and also possess strong quality with minimal weaknesses. Portugal has CR7 and some young talent up front, but weaknesses on the back end that probably prevent them from being a threat in this tournament. Poor Hungary, they will be a doormat in this group.
Picks: Germany to Win Group (+165), France to Reach Semifinal (+135), Group F to Win Tournament (+150)
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