DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
The DP World Tour returns to the Netherlands this week for the Dutch Open and again we find ourselves at a tournament with limited information to go off. Although the Dutch Open (previously KLM Open) has been around for some time, last year’s iteration was the inaugural and only appearance at the Bernadus Golf. That was a low-scoring shootout won by 275/1 shot Kritoffer Broberg, with a wide variety of players contending.
In the last regular DP World Tour event in Belgium at the Soudal Open, our 80/1 tip Callum Shinkwin gave us our 2nd FRL in a row only to fade throughout the weekend to finish 37th. Edoardo Molinari finished 9th for an admirable top 10 but also frustratingly close to the place money. Ryan Fox led for us right up until the final 9 on Sunday, where he eventually lost out by just one shot to finish 2nd and a top 5 place payout at odds of $7.25.
Another 80/1 pick Chase Hanna was our biggest winner of the week, finishing 4th for a top 10 payout at $12.00 and also cashing place money of $21.00 for finishing top 5. He tempts again here having been cut by only 10 points, but just misses out as a notable exception.
Here is everything you need to know ahead of the Dutch Open. This is your weekly golf deep dive.
Course
Bernadus Golf is a mid-range length sitting at 7,445 yards par 72 designed by Kyle Phillips, with the traditional 4 Par 5s and 4 Par 3s split evenly between the front and back 9. All Par 5s are potentially reachable in two by the longest hitters and two Par 4s are potentially driveable by the longest drivers only wind permitting.
The course presents as an almost links style course, with generous fairways giving way to areas of tussock and fescue grass. This should only come into play for the most flagrant of drives, as fairways are wide enough to allow for anything slightly offline. The course is chiefly designed for amateurs, with little punishment off the tee and wind offering the only real defence against ultra-low scoring.
Looking at the limited data available, the only consistent line that can be drawn across the leading pack was that approach play was a positive indication with all of the top 5 finishing in the top 40 for the week and 3 finishing in the top 10 for this category. A real mix of long and short drivers can be seen on the leaderboard in 2021, suggesting we need to look to quality iron play to differentiate our picks and hope one of our golfers gets a hot putter.
The Alfred Dunhill Links provides parallels being another tournament often featuring windy conditions and links golf course. Included in the rotation is another Phillip’s designed Kingsbarns golf course providing further correlation.
Weather
As mentioned, wind is the only real defence around this track, and we can expect this to play a part this week. There is no clear wave advantage available, but it is worth noting that wind positive players should receive a bump.
Winds each day will range between 12-16mph with gusts between 22-32mph. Some light rain is expected every morning which should provide soft conditions.
Given the winds, the 25 under seen last year seems unlikely and something more around the 15-20 under mark could prove the winning total.
Suggested Staking and Golf Betting Tips
– Jordan Smith 1pt E/W $29.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)
– Victor Perez 0.5pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)
– Victor Perez 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)
– Haotong Li 0.5pt E/W $71.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)
– Haotong Li 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (TAB)
– Jason Scrivener 0.5pt E/W $91.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)
– Jason Scrivener 1pt Top 10 $9.00 (TAB or Bet365)
– Ross Fisher 0.5pt E/W $91.00 (Bet365, 5 place 1/4th odds)
– Ross Fisher 1pt Top 10 $10.00 (TAB)
Jordan Smith
An excellent driver of the golf ball, I expect Jordan Smith to be able to use his prestigious length coupled with accurate driving to place the ball in the right positions and give himself great looks into the multiple scoring opportunities on this course.
Smith has gained substantially on the field for both driving distance and accuracy. Further, he has beaten the field for SG: Approach in 6/9 tournaments this year and has had several spike weeks with the putter which will undoubtedly be needed in this course. Over the last 3 months, he ranks 3rd in this field for SG: T2G, 6th for SG: OTT, and 22nd for SG: Approach.
Form this year is elite, reading 12-9-2-72-2-16-MC-18-21. The only missed cut coming at a very windy and variable Qatar Masters with extremely gusty conditions, he still managed to gain 4 strokes on the field for approach. Other notable wind performances included a 12th and 9th at Abu Dhabi and Dubai, both in elite fields being Rolex Series events and having windy conditions this year.
2nd at Ras Al-Khaimah, 2nd at the MyGolfLife Open, and 16th at the Steyn City Championship all came at tracks that allowed use of plenty of driver off the tee and were low scoring affairs. The Englishman ticks’ multiple boxes here and we should expect him at the pointy end of the leaderboard this week.
Victor Perez
Formerly ranked in the OWGR Top 50 just one year ago, we are again beginning to see some resurgence in the 29-year-old Frenchman’s game which suggest he is very backable at these odds.
Perez has seen a great return from his iron play, and ranks 4th in the field for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. Combine this with gaining plenty on the field for driving distance in the last three tournaments and ranking 22nd for SG: OTT, it is clear that his ball striking is in excellent nick.
Of note is his prior DP World Tour victory came at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, a low scoring affair across windy links courses where he shot 22 under to win. A similar performance from the resurgent from Perez could well see him adding to that come Sunday.
Haotong Li
I am back to the well again on Haotong, who again is another showing sparks of life after tumbling from the Top 50 OWGR rankings.
Haotong Li’s two DP World Tour victories have come in low scoring shootouts where he has got hot with the putter, a 22 under at the Volvo China Open and a 23 under at the Dubai Desert Classic in windy conditions backed up by one of the best putting performances I have ever witnessed.
Accuracy off the tee has long been the downfall of Haotong, and he finds a track where this is unlikely to be a defining factor. He does however produce plenty of distance with his drives meaning he can go out and attack this course. We saw similar earlier this year when finishing 3rd at Ras Al-Khaimah, where in interviews he was quoted stating how good the state of his game was and how he feels ready to get back to winning ways very shortly.
That could well be here for a player who enjoys links golf, having previously finished 3rd at The Open in 2017 and a 14th at the 2021 Dunhill Links in his first tournament back from a return home during COVID. Couple that with Dunhill Links finishes of 23rd in 2019 and 6th in 2018, it is easy for him to make a case for him here if he can strike gold with the putter.
Jason Scrivener
Scrivener is a player I always like to have onboard in windy conditions. Scrivener arrives in the Netherlands on a run of 8 consecutive cuts including a 10th at the Zurich Classic when alongside Jason Day.
The windy conditions in Qatar saw him exceed expectations when finishing 27th after a rather horrible run of tournaments and more recently an 18th at the windy Catalunya Championships. A 9th at the aforementioned Ras Al-Khaimah earlier this season also suggest a potential fit at this track.
Having beaten the field for SG: Approach in his last 3 starts and 5 of his last 7, a return to this ball striking and windy conditions suggest a performance at longer odds is not out of the question.
Ross Fisher
Another previous top golfer experiencing a return to form, Fisher has had a solid start to the season. Still very long off the tee, he finds a track here where he can take full advantage with his drive and coupled with his recent iron play could be a force to be reckoned with.
Fisher ranks 3rd for SG: OTT, 34th for SG: Approach, and 6th for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. That is a lot of very positive ball-striking for a player ranked as a far outsider in this fairly weak field.
A run of 18th at the Ras Al-Khaimah Championship, 2nd at the Ras Al-Khaimah Classic, and 6th at the MyGolfLife Open is perhaps his most eye-catching form this season. Having finished 2nd twice at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship amongst several other top 25 finishes there, a previous winner in the Netherlands at the KLM Open, and 3 of his 4 European Tour stroke play victories coming at 18 under or better point to this perhaps being the event where he can add another title to the list.
