DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Invitational, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.
With a reduced field of 60, we invariably follow suit with a smaller card than normal. In this case, I have also opted for a smaller outlay in our stake sizing. Simply put, Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood headlining the field provide a massive threat. I would often take a preference to not bet at all in such circumstances if I suspect a very short favourite will win.
Obviously, if either win the golf tournament I would not be surprised. However, if there is one flaw in McIlroy’s game it is his wedge play. On a short course, it seems a real possibility that this could turn into a bit of a wedge-fest putting competition. Secondly, Rory is not always the most accurate off the tee. He can hang the ball right on occasions. With water looming large on so many holes, that could be a factor.
In terms of Fleetwood, he has travelled from Hawai’i to Dubai for this tournament. That is not a straightforward process, nor a short journey.
A few names unlucky to miss out on the Dubai Invitational betting card. Yannik Paul, Thriston Lawrence, and Thorbjorn Olesen were last excluded. Yannik just due to a lack of starts in Dubai and poor form in his three tournaments. Likewise for Thriston, who has three missed cuts at the Dubai Desert Classic and a 41st out of 50th at the 2022 DP World Tour Championship. Although his recent 5th in 2023 was noted, it was sufficient to see others preferred. Olesen was simply too short in the market.
Dubai Invitational Betting Tips
Updated 9 Jan 7:00AM ET
Suggested Staking
Rasmus Højgaard – Dubai Invitational Betting Tips Favourite
2.5pt E/W +1800 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
Adrian Otaegui
1pt E/W +4500 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +100 (TAB)
Jeff Winther – Dubai Invitational Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +230 (TAB)
Ashun Wu
1pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +400 (TAB)
Dubai Invitational Betting Tips
Player Profiles
Rasmus Højgaard – Dubai Invitational Betting Tips Favourite
With an extremely tentative line drawn through Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood, we arrive at Nicolai Højgaard and Adrian Meronk. Both are long drivers of the golf ball, but neither is that accurate. If the course plays as we suspect, then Rasmus Højgaard may make a better bet at a generous 18/1.
Make no bones about it: the Højgaard twins are ultra competitive. This is perhaps best illustrated in 2021. Rasmus won the Omega European Masters, only for Nicolai to secure his first DP World Tour win a week later at the Italian Open. Undoubtedly, Nicolai is now ahead of Rasmus. The DP World Tour Championship was the last tournament these two played. Also hosted in Dubai, it was a great week for our selections as Nicolai secured a “coming of age” victory. No doubt Rasmus will be keen to right the record returning to the UAE.
Where Nicolai is the longer of the two, Rasmus is slightly more accurate. That has translated well to his excellent performances at our two comp courses. At Le Golf National, he has finished 2nd and 4th in two attempts. The first of those appearances he appeared to be cruising to victory by quite some margin before a quintuple bogey put paid to his chances.
At Valderrama he is equally as impressive, with a 31st followed by a 5th. He holds a decent record in Dubai himself. He has finished 7th and 11th in his prior two appearances at the DP World Tour Championship. Additionally, he has a 20th and 9th at the Dubai Desert Classic.
Finally, Thomas Bjørn redesigned this golf course in 2004. No doubt he has been passing tidbits onto his fellow Danes for some invaluable advice. He has already been recorded with the Danish players playing practice rounds.
Adrian Otaegui
Given the aforementioned links to the Iberian Peninsula, there may be no better option than Otaegui. Adrian Otaegui is the most accurate driver in this field over the last 12 months by quite some margin. He is also 11th for SG: T2G and 9th for SG: APP.
The pitfall for Otaegui is usually the putter. However, we have seen some good gains in that area recently. He has consistently been gaining on the field putting since September 2023. Whereas he is 46th for putting in this field over 12 months, he moves his average to 20th in this field over the last 3 months. That warrants attention for our Dubai Invitational Tips
In terms of comp courses, he was the most recent winner at Valderrama in 2022. That was of course before LIV Golf poached one of the most iconic courses on the tour for 2023. He also holds a superb record at Le Golf National, with form of 7-12-MC-13-16.
Despite neither of the other Dubai golf courses really suiting his game, he has still managed a decent enough record at Jumeirah Golf Estates. His 4 most recent starts read 4-14-16-18. He also has a 5th and 10th at the Qatar Masters. Doha is a very exposed golf course, where accuracy has typically been preferred to driving distance.
Should the course play as we think, this would be a perfect fit for his game. Given the recent putting improvements, he looks fabulous value at 40/1 or longer.
Jeff Winther – Dubai Invitational Best Value
If the wind blows, there is often no better man for the job than Jeff Winther. Much of that has to do with his excellent putting, where he ranks 1st in this field over 6 months, 12 months, and 2 years.
He is also an accurate enough driver of the ball, despite lacking distance off the tee. In many ways, he is the inverse to many golfers. Where other golfers we are hoping their putter will come to life, Winther is a putting wizard who can spike a top finish if he finds his irons. With the very short golf course on offer here, that shouldn’t be an issue. He can instead rely on his excellent wedge play and short game.
Much like the Otaegui tip, Winther has enjoyed some success in Dubai. That comes in spite of the golf courses and what they require. He most recently finished 9th at the DP World Tour Championship. He also holds a 37th and 27th at Emirates Golf Club, despite that being a golf course that is very driver heavy and really too long for him. Additionally, he holds Iberian form with his sole DP World Tour victory coming at the Mallorca Golf Open.
But, it is the recent performance at Le Golf National that really impresses. Holding a 8th and 2nd on that track, this should be a test that suits his eye.
Ashun Wu
Finally, we finish our Dubai Invitational betting tips with a speculative play on Ashun Wu. We have tipped Wu previously in the UAE at the Dubai Desert Classic. He has a superb record there, with form of 6-9-30-20 in his last four starts. The UAE links continue at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. He has a 12th and 20th in his two Yas Links appearances. Both of these are Rolex Series events, featuring the best DP World Tour players and a fair few PGA Tour regulars returning to Europe. Those sort of results shouldn’t be sniffed at.
An excellent putter in his day, he is also accurate off the tee. This came to the fore at the Magical Kenyan Open in 2022. Ashun Wu won there for us at 50/1, on a golf course that rewards driving accuracy and putting.
His other victory came at the KLM Open. Bernadus is a faux links course, much like Abu Dhabi. Both are exposed, flat tracks and liable to gusts. Again, it is far from the worst comp course to what we could see this week. He has back to back top 20s in Mallorca and tops 10s in Portugal.
Ashun Wu was 100/1 when tipped in these pages for the 2023 Dubai Desert Classic and 4/1 for a Top 20 finish. He is available at double the price here for the win and the same top 20 odds. That is despite a far weaker field and less than half the competitors this week. Rory McIlroy was still in that field, as was Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Patrick Reed, and Tyrrell Hatton. It seems overly generous to see him go out at 200/1 here, on a course that probably suits his game better.
More DeepDiveGolf
Most One and Done golf contests will begin this week at the Sony Open. I have compiled your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive some One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. Even if you don’t play One and Done, it is well worth a bookmark to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year. If you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article.
You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!
Along with the Dubai Invitational, you can also find my PGA Tour preview of the Sony Open here and Sony Open betting tips here.
