Dave Gloeckner 
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XFL DFS WEEK 2 – THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (2/23/23)
Tonight begins Week 2 of the XFL. Better known as my favorite spring football league ever. If you didn’t get to see Week 1, I will sum it up as a complete success for the league and it’s owners. ESPN rolled out an A Team for broadcasting highlighted by Joey Galloway. The DC fans gave the XFL some east coast passion with their beer snakes and throwing of lemons once their novelty got taken away. And Dean Blandino showed up on each game for a cameo and nice dive into the conversations the command center has with the refs onsite. Ultimately, the football was average at best but it was better than past iterations of this league. Which brings hope to how this product will mature as well as how it will impact fantasy and betting markets. More points equals more eyes equals more betting and bigger DFS prize pools.
Last week’s analysis paid dividends as I ended up in the black for DFS plays. A 4th place finish in the Sunday Night Showdown definitely helped catapult that. So there’s momentum this week but I am changing some of my philosophy. See, I watched the games and got some context of the skill and strengths. I just listened to a few podcasts that admittedly didn’t watch or if they did, were misinformed. WR’s were the key to success last week and will likely be again. But it’s the volume WR’s as the league in non-existent in long passes and the O-lines do not allow time for deeper routes (longest completion of weekend was 51 yards and only 3 plays over 40 yards).
So let’s get into the games which start tonight. DraftKings has a $200K GPP contest for all four games as well as a $20K showdown for tonight’s game. So the pots are still solid which makes watching this version of spring football even sweeter.
THURSDAY NIGHT 2/23/23: ST LOUIS BATTLEHAWKS @ SEATTLE SEA DRAGONS -2.5 (9pm on FX/ESPN+)
We have a team that shouldn’t be 1-0 (St Louis) versus a team that shouldn’t be 0-1 (Seattle). But two different late game situations resulted in unexpected results for both HC Anthony Becht and Jim Haslett respectively.
Tonight’s game will be exciting as we have two of the preseason favorites as well as two of the better QB’s in the league matching up against each other. What’s also noteworthy is that these team’s are committed to their QB’s (for now) which is good for DFS. Other teams, such as DC and Orlando, have much more uncertainty and make it difficult to play their QB’s this week.
Quarterback:
AJ MCCARRON (ST LOUIS) $10,700 Main Slate/$9800 Showdown: McCarron is the highest priced QB on the board. He put up a solid 19.8 DK points last week but 80% happened in the last 2 minutes. He had just 57 yards passing for the first 3.5 quarters of the game. And a lot of that was because his O-line looked like a turn-style. The Battlehawks made late adjustments to get the ball out quickly, especially to Austin Proehl. But is that sustainable for an entire game?
Which brings in the Sea Dragons pass D to the equation. They allowed the lowest passing yards in week 1 (93) but some of that was due to DC’s change in QB and emphasis on the run game. But the problem with McCarron tonight is that the crowd will be loud (we’ve seen MLS games in Seattle) and that doesn’t bode well for an already questionable O-line.
I will pass on McCarron for the Classic/Main Slate and won’t use him as a Captain tonight. I will get him in a few showdown lineups but will look to fade him on some as well just to get different.
BEN DINUCCI (SEATTLE) $10,200 Main Slate/$9600 Showdown: There is no doubt that Ben DiNucci has NFL level arm strength. But his decision making and pocket presence are terrible. And that’s what will likely keep him from rising up to the pro ranks again. However, he has June Jones as his OC and that is great for his XFL stock and DFS value. Seattle will throw, and throw a lot as evidenced in Week 1 as DiNucci threw 54 times. The whole passing game is in play here for both the Main Slate and Showdown.
I will look to get Dinucci into the Captain slot on ~50% of my builds tonight.
Running Back:
BRIAN HILL (ST LOUIS) $7300 Main Slate/$8000 Showdown: Hill received only 6 carries in Week 1 but did rip off a 40 yard rush and ended the game with 81 all purpose yards on 9 touches. It looks like Hill is the primary ball carrier as Mateo Durant had just 6 yards on 6 touches. Seattle’s D Line was awesome in stopping DC’s star RB Abram Smith in Week 1. I expect the same here but think there’s value in rostering Hill in Showdown and running back Seattle’s pass game. I do not like Hill for the Classic/Main Slate this week.
BRENDAN KNOX (SEATTLE) $6400 Main Slate/$7300 Showdown: Most weeks I’ll try to fade the Seattle running game. And they proved me wrong last week as Knox received 11 carries which was good for T3 in Week 1. More importantly, he was able to find the endzone which bumped his value up nicely. With such high attention on the Seattle “run & shoot” pass game, I think Knox could be in-line for a similar workload as Week 1.
I like Knox as a play in Showdown only. There are better RB #1’s this week on the Main/Classic Slate (Smith, Ballage, Borghi) and I’m looking to use only 1-2 RB’s this weekend.
Wide Receiver/TE:
JOSH GORDON (SEATTLE) $10,100 Main Slate/$10,200 Showdown: Gordon was able to put up solid numbers in Week 1. But it didn’t look that way for a while as I noticed he didn’t play on several drives in the 3rd and 4th quarter. If it wasn’t for a few late catches, Gordon would have ended with under 40 yards.
One thing is certain though and that’s the fact that Gordon is a physical specimen and stands out. He can dominate if he wants to. I’m just not 100% where his commitment is and do have some concerns his name precedes him. I’ll play him in Showdown tonight in a Seattle pass game stack. For the Main Slate, I will get him in 10-20% of my lineups but I’m going to be different with him and be on the lower side of ownership.
JAHCOUR PEARSON (SEATTLE) $5400 Main Slate/$7800 Showdown: Pearson led the XFL with 14 targets in Week 1 and was able to bring down 12 of those. He also posted 95 yards and ended up as the 3rd highest receiver last week. He runs routes close to the line which is exactly what we want to see from a volume perspective. I believe they will be able to break one tonight and Pearson will be the guy to do it. I love him in all formats, even more than Gordon, and will even look to get him in the Captain spot in several builds.
BLAKE JACKSON (VEGAS) $6400 Main Slate/$7200 Showdown: Jackson was a favorite of ours last week as any #3 in June Jones offense will get targets. And he got 11 of them in Week 1 which resulted in 8 catches. But Draftkings has caught up and increased his salary almost 2x. Keep an eye on his injury status for tonight as he’s dealing with a thumb injury. If he plays, I like him in all formats.
AUSTIN PROEHL (ST LOUIS) $4400 Main Slate/$5200 Showdown: This is one of my favorite Main Slate plays of the weekend. Proehl stepped up late for the Battlehawks and caught the game winning TD in their game versus San Antonio. He ended the game with 4 catches for 49 yards and a TD. He looks like the safety blanket for McCarron and I expect his role to grow this week. I’ll play him in both the Main/Classic Slate and Showdown.
MARCELL ATEMAN (ST LOUIS) $9500 Main Slate/$9000 Showdown: Ateman killed many lineups last week as he hauled in just 2 catches for 45 yards. He came into last week as the WR with the highest salary and now he’s given that honor away to someone on the other sideline tonight. While they’re coming off a short week too, the Battlehawks will surely look to find ways to get the ball to their playmaker. This is a good buy low situation especially if the game gets into shoot out mode.
DEFENSE
SEATTLE SEA DRAGONS $3500 Main Slate/$3900 Showdown: The San Antonio Defense registered just 2 sacks last week against St Louis but they should have had more. I think HC Jim Haslett will find a way to confuse the Battlehawks O-Line and get to McCarron more often than the Brahmas did. Seattle’s D slowed late because of the Defenders move to D’Eriq King and they struggled with his mobility. But McCarron is a pocket passer so they’ll know where he’s at and can gameplan and attack this poor O-Line accordingly.
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