DFS Pitching, Monkey Knife Fight Picks – 5/3

Picking the correct pitcher is key to DFS success, and the most important thing to monitor for pitchers is the weather. Picking a pitcher who has their start delayed or outright postponed because of weather can derail a perfect lineup and that’s obviously the one thing we want to avoid. With that in mind, here are the games with questionable forecasts: PIT-OAK and TEX-TOR. Considering we have recommendations in that Pittsburgh game, be sure to check out a forecast before submitting lineups. 

Top-Tier Pitchers: 

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at SD 

DK ($10,100)    FD ($11,300) 

Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher of our generation and people aren’t treating him like that. His 2.65 career FIP shows just how dominant he’s been throughout his career and his 2.82 xFIP this season shows that he’s not far removed from that. What’s really encouraging is the fact that his K-rate has gotten back to 29 percent this season, as that pairs beautifully with his 5.5 percent BB-rate. That’s why he’s scored at least 20 DK points in all three starts he’s made while recording at least six Ks and six innings pitched in all three games. His upside may be even higher here, as he faces a Padres team that ranks 28^th in scoring, 29^th in OBP, 27^th in xwOBA and 25^th in K rate. Not to mention, Kershaw owns a 1.61 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 14 starts at Petco Park throughout his career, striking out 95 batters across 89.2 innings. That’s why Kershaw enters this game as a –185 favorite with San Diego projected for just three runs.

Tyler Glasnow, TB at BAL 

DK ($9,600)    FD ($10,500) 

Glasnow was a preseason breakout candidate of mine and even he has surpassed any expectations I had for him. His 1.75 ERA and 0.94 WHIP speaks loudly, as he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any start this season. That alone would be impressive, but his 28 percent K rate and .253 xwOBA shows the sort of dominance he possesses. The icing on the cake here is the matchup though, with Baltimore ranking 22^nd in scoring, 21^st in OBP and 25^th in xwOBA. Glasnow enters this matchup as a –210 favorite.

Matt Boyd, DET vs. KC 

DK ($9,300)    FD ($10,400) 

Boyd was a guy who wasn’t even on my radar at the beginning of the season but it’s hard to argue with his current breakout. In fact, Boyd owns a 3.13 ERA and 1.02 WHIP while striking out 48 batters across 37.1 innings. That K rate is the most important factor with Boyd, as that’s simply one of the best strikeout rates in the majors. His peripherals indicate that his numbers should be even better, with Boyd posting a .257 xwOBA and a 2.21 FIP this season. Facing Kansas City is a treat for any pitcher too, with the Royals ranking 19th in OBP and 20^th in xwOBA. 

Mid-Tier Pitchers: 

Kevin Gausman, ATL at MIA 

DK ($8,400)    FD ($8,100) 

Gausman has quietly been really good this season, as his 4.80 ERA is a very unfair number. His 1.07 WHIP is more indicative of the start he’s had and the righty has also added a .296 xwOBA and 3.83 xFIP to counter that unlucky ERA. What’s also impressive is the fact that he has a 28 percent K-rate and an 8.3 percent BB rate, as his 60 percent LOB rate has tilted his ERA. What we like about Gausman here is the fact that he gets to face the worst lineup in the league in the best pitcher’s park in the Majors. In fact, Miami ranks last in scoring and 29^th in wOBA. That was crystal clear when Gausman pitched seven scoreless innings in his one start against Miami, striking out seven batters while allowing just four baserunners.  

Sonny Gray, CIN vs. SF 

DK ($8,200)    FD ($8,000) 

I honestly have been stacking against Gray for a couple of years now but he appears to be back to his Oakland form this season. Since a dud in the opener, Gray has posted a 3.33 ERA and 0.73 WHIP across his last five starts, striking out 36 batters across 27 innings. That WHIP and K rate is simply impossible to argue with, as those are the ratios of a $10,000 player. That makes Gray impossible to fade in this matchup, with San Francisco ranking 30^th in both wOBA and OBP while sitting 29^th in xwOBA and runs per game. In addition, Vegas has Gray projected as a –160 favorite, with San Fran projected to score fewer than four runs. 

Cheap Pitchers: 

Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. OAK 

DK ($7,200)    FD ($8,700) 

It’s strange to call Musgrove a cheap pitcher, but his $7,200 price tag on DraftKings justifies that notion. It’s really hard to understand why he’s so cheap on DK, with Musgrove posting a 1.54 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across six appearances this season. You’d think he has a crappy K rate, looking at those numbers and this price, but his 31 Ks across 35 innings is also a solid rate. Oakland is not a lineup we need to fear either, with the A’s sitting 20^th in wOBA and 21^st in batting average. Hitting in PNC Park will only hurt them even more, as that’s easily one of the best pitcher’s parks in the majors and Oakland will have to replace their DH with a pitcher.  

Brett Anderson, OAK at PIT 

DK ($5,800)    FD ($6,800) 

Anderson is my sneaky play of the day, as he’s simply too cheap. While he’s struggled against Toronto in his last two starts, he’s had a good year otherwise. Anderson posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his first four starts, which included games against Boston and at Texas. This is a guy worth considering whenever he’s healthy, as his 3.68 career xFIP shows the sort of stuff he possesses. Facing Pittsburgh is quite the step down from all of those stout AL lineups, with the Pirates ranking 29^th in total runs and 26^th in both wOBA and OBP. He also gets to face a pitcher in a beautiful pitcher’s park like PNC. This total sitting at 7.5 indicates why both of these guys are solid plays too.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

Tyler Glasnow over 5.5 Strikeouts

We had Carlos Rodon surpassing 5.5 Ks in our first MNF pick of the season and he totally let us down with five Ks in three eight-run innings. That tells us that our process was correct though, so we’re going to go with Glasnow here. The righties’ 28 percent K-rate speaks for itself, as he’s gone at least five innings in all six starts this season. The fact that he threw over 100 pitches for the first time in his most recent start gives him a nice floor too, with six innings and six strikeouts seemingly being the floor for Glasnow. Play MLB Player Prop Games Now and get 100 percent Bonus!