cdenny99@hotmail.com 
Last week Jon Rahm exploded on Sunday like the volcanoes on the Hawaiian Island course they played on. Collin Morikawa blew a six stroke lead and finished second. Kudos to him for immediately finishing and conducting an emotional interview where he expressed his profound sorrow for losing and how sad he was. Hopefully the 1.5 million for second will assuage his sadness. We get a full field this week, a bit watered down, and the pricing is soft compared to last years tourney. Ownership, especially on Mr. Tom Kim, will be a key factor for your rosters. The Honda Classic DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections will provide you with the tools and intel to propel your teams to the top of the board.
Recent Results
For the Sentry we put out Trey Mullinax as a solid play for 6200 salary and 8% ownership. He finished 14 under, a stroke away from top 20, and brought value for both his effort and his price allowing you to pick another stud up top.
2021 was sweet for me. I took down 6 tourneys, including 20K in a tennis tourney I used a golf program for and the sage advice of Mr. Pickett, our friend from the north and an excellent tennis forecaster for Win Daily Sports. I used some of my winnings to upgrade to integrated AI systems and this past year I only sniffed the top 10 a couple of times. I was relying on the AI too much and it showed. A lesson learned.
Penn Gillette, the one half of Penn and Teller, (the top magicians on the planet) is a mathematical genius. Penn has written several books on Chaos math. Recently they did a study at Penn where they put up a huge screen in the cafeteria and put dots, lines and dashes all over it, changing frequently, and the one constant was that it was totally random at all times. Over three days over 4000 students who ate there were asked what if any pattern they saw, and every single one mentioned a perceived pattern, not one single response was for total randomness. Humans seek patterns, in social arenas, in problem solving, in gaming and in DFS. All the time. Every time.
One of the proven theories in Chaos math is that a sub optimized construct over a finite period of time including variables WILL become optimized. Four days of golf, (a finite time) weather, injuries, W/D’s, players moods (being the variables) means that helpless looking team you built could take it all down. Its a proven fact.
I am in no way suggesting you not use an optimizer. Win Daily Sports has an excellent optimizer that can help you define and refine your golfer pool. If you use them please try and input some rules. For example, if playing Tom Kim this week I want at least one of the other golfers to be Conners. (HINT) If you just run the opto blind you will spend your GPP budget quickly. Remember, we all seek patterns no matter what, our brains are hard wired to seek them out. Being just one player different can mean many extra zeroes on your green screen. (instead of sharing last place money with fifteen hundred strangers). This is for GPP only, cash games can use the more standard opto with most of the chalk being preferred.
The Course – The Field
This is a smaller course, 7000 yards and a par 70. This is one of 10 courses over the season where shots gained putting is a key metric. Those of you with favorite golfers who are suspect putters may have an out on this course due to the large greens and forgiving nature. The rough will be higher (3.25 to 3.5 inches) than it normally is but is not considered too penal.
Whether to trust the Weather
At present the weather is calling for mild winds in the 10-15 mph range. Thursday looks like a PM wave advantage but its not significant. The remainder looks pretty much the same. Make sure you check with Win Daily Sports Discord later tonight for weather and wind updates.
Lets take a look at The Sony Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections powered by Win Daily Sports. These tools are designed to allow you to build your lineups and streamline roster construction while gaining leverage on the field through pivots on the chalk and finding value plays in the lower tiers.
| OWNERSHIP PROJECTION | ||
| PLAYER | OWN % | SALARY |
| Kim, Tom (Joohyung) | 28.7 | 10500 |
| Im, Sungjae | 25.3 | 10300 |
| Harman, Brian | 24.1 | 9700 |
| Davis, Cameron | 21.2 | 8500 |
| Conners, Corey | 18.7 | 9600 |
| Lee, KH | 18.1 | 8700 |
| Spieth, Jordan | 16.7 | 10000 |
| English, Harris | 14.9 | 7800 |
| Hughes, Mackenzie | 14.8 | 7500 |
| Mitchell, Keith | 14.4 | 8300 |
| Poston, JT | 14.3 | 7700 |
| Smalley, Alex | 13.9 | 7800 |
| Hoge, Tom | 13.6 | 9900 |
| Putnam, Andrew | 13.3 | 8000 |
| Kitayama, Kurt | 12.6 | 7700 |
| Bezuidenhout, Christiaan | 12.4 | 8100 |
| Montgomery, Taylor | 12.3 | 9000 |
| Jaeger, Stephan | 12.2 | 7200 |
| Grillo, Emiliano | 11.9 | 8000 |
| Kucher, Matt | 11.8 | 7900 |
| Svensson, Adam | 11.7 | 7500 |
| Sigg, Greyson | 11.5 | 7300 |
| Bradley, Keegan | 11.4 | 9300 |
| Henley, Russell | 11.2 | 9800 |
| Scott,Adam | 10.9 | 8600 |
| Shelton, Robby | 10.9 | 7000 |
| Buckley, Hayden | 10.8 | 7600 |
| Matsuyama, Hideki | 10.7 | 10100 |
| Spaun, JJ | 10.6 | 8400 |
| Woodland, Gary | 10.1 | 7600 |
| Knox, Russell | 9.8 | 7200 |
| Kim, Si Woo | 9.7 | 8200 |
| Todd, Brendon | 9.4 | 7400 |
| Griffin, Ben | 9.3 | 7300 |
| Horschel, Billy | 9.2 | 9500 |
| Hardy, Nick | 7.9 | 7500 |
| McCarthy, Denny | 7.8 | 7900 |
| Simpson, Webb | 7.3 | 7400 |
| McNealy, Maverick | 7.2 | 9100 |
| Gordon, Will | 6.8 | 7600 |
| Steele, Brendan | 6.2 | 7300 |
| Kirk, Chris | 5.9 | 7400 |
| Hubbard, Mark | 5.8 | 7100 |
| Lipsky, David | 4.9 | 7100 |
| Kizzire, Patton | 4.8 | 7300 |
| Taylor, Ben | 4.3 | 6800 |
| Rai, Aaron | 4.1 | 7400 |
| Lingmerth, David | 3.9 | 6700 |
| Palmer, Ryan | 3.8 | 7100 |
| Glover, Lucas | 3.4 | 7000 |
| Cink, Stewart | 2.9 | 6900 |
| Thompson, Michael | 2.8 | 6700 |
| Ryder, Sam | 2.7 | 6900 |
| Kim, SH (Seonghyeon) | 2.7 | 7000 |
| Hadley, Chesson | 2.6 | 6600 |
| Smotherman, Austin | 2.5 | 6300 |
| Blair, Zac | 2.5 | 6400 |
| Armour, Ryan | 2.3 | 6900 |
| Thompson, Davis | 2.3 | 7100 |
| Suh, Justin | 2.2 | 7200 |
| Yu, Chun-an (Kevin) | 1.9 | 6700 |
| Stuard, Brian | 1.9 | 6300 |
| Reavie, Chez | 1.9 | 7000 |
| Bramlett, Joseph | 1.8 | 6900 |
| Eckroat, Austin | 1.8 | 6400 |
| Yuan, Carl | 1.8 | 6800 |
| Barnes, Erik | 1.7 | 6600 |
| Streelman, Kevin | 1.6 | 7100 |
| Taylor, Nick | 1.6 | 6700 |
| Hammer, Cole | 1.4 | 6500 |
| Nakajima, Keita | 1.4 | 6700 |
| Piercy, Scott | 1.4 | 6800 |
| Martin, Ben | 1.3 | 6500 |
| Merritt, Troy | 1.3 | 7200 |
| Higa, Kazuki | 1.3 | 6900 |
| Cole, Eric | 1.2 | 6200 |
| Wu, Brandon | 1.2 | 7000 |
| Cook, Austin | 1.2 | 6600 |
| Long, Adam | 1.2 | 6900 |
| Baddeley, Aaron | 1.1 | 6400 |
| Alexander, Tyson | 0.9 | 6300 |
| Semikawa, Taiga | 0.9 | 6600 |
| An, Byeong | 0.8 | 6700 |
| Schenk, Adam | 0.8 | 6800 |
| Moore, Ryan | 0.8 | 6500 |
| Hickok, Kramer | 0.8 | 6300 |
| Lee, Danny | 0.7 | 6300 |
| Johnson, Zack | 0.7 | 6600 |
| Stevens, Sam | 0.6 | 6200 |
| Higgs, Harry | 0.6 | 6400 |
| Lashley, Nate | 0.6 | 6400 |
| Malnati, Peter | 0.6 | 6400 |
| Kim, Michael | 0.5 | 6400 |
| Duo, Zecheng | 0.5 | 6500 |
| Wu, Dylan | 0.5 | 6200 |
| Kraft, Kelly | 0.5 | 6300 |
| Daffue, MJ | 0.4 | 6800 |
| Echavarria, Nico | 0.4 | 6000 |
| Haley II, Paul | 0.4 | 6500 |
| Hall, Harry | 0.4 | 6200 |
| Sabbatini, Rory | 0.4 | 6500 |
| Garnett, Brice | 0.4 | 6500 |
| Ramey, Chad | 0.4 | 6300 |
| Streb, Robert | 0.4 | 6500 |
| Stanley, Kyle | 0.4 | 6100 |
| Cone, Trevor | 0.4 | 6000 |
| Endycott, Harrison | 0.3 | 6200 |
| Novak, Andrew | 0.3 | 6200 |
| Kelly, Jerry | 0.3 | 6200 |
| Schwab, Matthias | 0.3 | 6600 |
| Gligic, Michael | 0.3 | 6400 |
| Duncan, Tyler | 0.3 | 6200 |
| Walker, Jimmy | 0.3 | 6100 |
| Westmoreland, Kyle | 0.3 | 6000 |
| Schmid, Matthias (Matti) | 0.2 | 6800 |
| Redman, Doc | 0.2 | 6300 |
| Norrman, Vincent | 0.2 | 6300 |
| Herman, Jim | 0.2 | 6100 |
| Roy, Kevin | 0.1 | 6100 |
| Nunez, Augusto | 0.1 | 6100 |
| Katsuragawa, Yuto | 0.1 | 6700 |
| Onishi, Kaito | 0.1 | 6200 |
| Tway, Kevin | 0.1 | 6200 |
| Brehm, Ryan | 0.1 | 6200 |
| Harrington, Scott | 0.1 | 6100 |
| McGreevy, Max | 0.1 | 6100 |
| Matthews, Brandon | 0.1 | 6100 |
| Werenski, Richy | 0.1 | 6100 |
| Okada, Kohei | 0.1 | 6100 |
| Choi, KJ | 0.1 | 6100 |
| McLachlin, Parker | 0.1 | 6000 |
| Winslow, Joseph | 0.0 | 6100 |
| Markham, George | 0.0 | 6100 |
| Grant, Brent | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Goya, Tano | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Young, Carson | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Albertson, Anders | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Werbylo, Trevor | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Mueller, Jesse | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Castillo, Michael | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Akana, Blaze (a) | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Truslow, Austen | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Guise, Danny | 0.0 | 6000 |
These figures for The Sony Open are accurate as of 18:58 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.
**Billy Horschel will play this weekend. He had initially told his team he was heading home to work on his game. Tom Kim will be higher owned than Sungjae in all contests under 100.00, expect the opposite on any contest over that figure, especially the 333.00, 555.00, and up.**
My picks for The Sony Open
Top Tier: T. Kim
Mid Tier: C. Connors
Low Tier: A. Putnam
Out in Left Play: K. Higa
Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky
FR Leader: Svensson
FR Leader: Griffin (Contrarian)
What to Watch
Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single time and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. Their picks are free square plays. Together they have been winning thousands and thousands of dollars week in and week out. They provide you with not just the picks, they also provide the tools for you to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast!
Its available to listen to right now!
The Premier Live Stream
This week The PGA Draftcast had Jason Sobel as a guest. He was the first DFS Golf Guru I followed almost ten years ago, and I paid for lessons by having him and CSURAM from the old LABS team kicking my tail every week until I started holding my own. Kudos to Joel for having additional Superstars on the DraftCast. This is the group featuring Sia that kills the First Round Leader pick week after week after week.
Don’t forget to tune in to The DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia, Spencer, and Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help your audience win the week with the best team on the board!
The Results
Our current record for The Frisky Biscuit play is 20-4. We are sitting at 80% winners for an extremely cheap golfer (6K range) that everyone hates (less than 5 % ownership). Our play will be released this evening in The Win Daily Sports Discord channel.
In Closing
We finished with a 97% + accuracy rating on our ownership projections from last year. We want 99%+ this year. We have 37 more tourneys to take down starting tomorrow and we look forward to seeing all those green screens in Win Daily Sports Discord.
They have a new state breakfast In Georgia this week. It’s called “Toads on Toast”.
As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!
