We are back in Coachella Valley for the Amex this week with some star power ready to tee it up over three different courses. For the Win Daily Sports golf staff it’s exciting to watch Scheffler, Rahm, Cantlay, Kim, Finau, IM, and Si Woo go at it. Xander will make a go of it after withdrawing last week. He has had back treatments and says he’s ready. We also know that shot link will only be available for one third to one half of the tourney which brings some variance in metrics and performance. These courses offer plenty of birdie opportunities and according to Jon Rahm its “just a big F*cking putting contest.” There isn’t much rough to speak of and only 1/3 of the course holes have water hazards. Those mentioned above will garner premium ownership. The American Express DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections will provide you with the tools and intel to propel your teams to the top of the board.
Recent Results
For the Sony Open we put out Brian Stuard as a Frisky Biscuit play for 6300 salary and 1.5 % ownership. He made the cut with strokes to spare and brought great value for both his effort and his price allowing you to pick another player up top with a higher pedigree. This brings our record to 21-5 for a golfer under 5 % owned and a 6K salary who must make the cut. My Player picks listed under the ownership hit every play except Tom Kim. It was the first time Kim was the heavy favorite with a bullseye on his back, he is used to coming from back in the pack to amaze and surprise. He lost strokes putting which is an outlier for him. Which will we see this week? Check in with Win Daily Sports Discord to find out!
The Course – The Field
This tourney offers each player a turn at all three courses so everyone gets three days of scoring. Saturday night there will be a 54 hole cut down to the final 70 players, we get five more players in this format than the usual 65. They will play the Stadium course again on Sunday to determine the champion.
Whether to trust the Weather
At present the weather is calling for calm winds for Thursday in the 2 to 4 mile range with no discernable edge to morning or afternoon waves. Make sure you check with Win Daily Sports Discord later tonight for weather and wind updates.
Targets and Traps
Rahm needs no explanation and his price is soft. Cam Young has dropped from first to third most popular ownership. I will be above field average on him and get different elsewhere. Cantlay is a solid play. Leverage in the top tiers belongs to Scheffler and Finau. Expect concentrated ownership in the 9K range as well. Harman is the ownership leverage there, he shouldn’t be your first or second choice but he offers value even though he rarely wins. He was on the optimal lineup last week as a solid third or fourth play. As far as Will Z, he always plays the tougher fields really well. This field isn’t tough, it’s just a bit better than last week. This field ranks behind last years, at a 307 rating. The U.S. Open is in the 850’s, so Z is a pass for me. The 8K range has Pendrith, Lee, Clark and Poston as strong pivots to the chalky range, The 7K range has tremendous value at 7500 and below. I prefer Ben Taylor (7000) to the chalk Lipsky (7300). The only golfer I will have a decent amount rostered in the high 7 range is Jason Day. Mitchell and Rodgers are in my pool for pivots and sprinkles in that range. NeSmith is drawing ownership and I like the pivot to Callum Tarren. I like the Taylors this week, Pendrith, Montgomery and also Moore. The 6K range is pretty weak this week. I will have my low owned Frisky Biscuit 6K play in Discord tonight.
Lets take a look at The American Express DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections powered by Win Daily Sports. These tools are designed to allow you to build your lineups and streamline roster construction while gaining leverage on the field through pivots on the chalk and finding value plays in the lower tiers.
OWNERSHIP PROJECTION | ||
PLAYER | OWN % | SALARY |
Rahm, John | 28.6 | 10800 |
Cantlay, Patrick | 23.9 | 10100 |
Young, Cameron | 23.6 | 9100 |
Finau, Tony | 19.1 | 10200 |
Scheffler, Scottie | 18.3 | 10500 |
Hoge, Tom | 18.2 | 8400 |
Zalatoris,Will | 17.4 | 9600 |
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) | 16.3 | 9500 |
Montgomery, Taylor | 14.3 | 8900 |
Lee, KH | 13.7 | 8300 |
Davis, Cameron | 13.6 | 8800 |
Lipsky, David | 13.3 | 7300 |
Harman, Brian | 12.9 | 9300 |
Im, Sungjae | 12.7 | 9800 |
Putnam, Andrew | 12.4 | 8700 |
Griffin, Ben | 12.3 | 7200 |
Wise, Aaron | 11.9 | 9000 |
Hadwin, Adam | 11.2 | 8200 |
Day, Jason | 10.7 | 7900 |
Taylor, Ben | 10.6 | 7000 |
Smalley, Alex | 10.3 | 7500 |
Schauffele, Xander | 9.9 | 10000 |
Poston, JT | 9.8 | 8000 |
Fowler, Rickie | 9.7 | 7800 |
Gordon, Will | 9.6 | 7400 |
Kim, Si Woo | 9.3 | 9200 |
Theegala, Sahith | 8.9 | 8600 |
Mitchell, Keith | 8.8 | 7800 |
Rodgers, Patrick | 8.5 | 7700 |
Pendrith, Taylor | 8.4 | 8000 |
Burns, Sam | 8.3 | 9400 |
NeSmith, Matthew | 8.2 | 7100 |
Clark, Wyndham | 7.9 | 8100 |
Detry,Thomas | 7.8 | 7600 |
English, Harris | 7.7 | 7600 |
Sigg, Greyson | 7.6 | 7100 |
Grillo, Emiliano | 7.4 | 7600 |
Riley, Davis | 7.1 | 7700 |
McCarthy, Denny | 6.3 | 7800 |
Yuan, Carl | 6.3 | 6900 |
Yu, Chun-an (Kevin) | 6.2 | 6900 |
Kirk, Chris | 5.8 | 7500 |
Taylor, Nick | 5.7 | 7000 |
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon) | 5.6 | 7300 |
Jaeger, Stephan | 5.4 | 7300 |
Todd, Brendon | 4.9 | 7500 |
Hodges, Lee | 4.8 | 7400 |
List, Luke | 4.8 | 7200 |
Knox, Russell | 4.7 | 7100 |
Munoz, Sebastian | 4.6 | 7500 |
Steele, Brendan | 4.6 | 7400 |
Tarren, Callum | 4.4 | 7200 |
Ryder, Sam | 4.4 | 6800 |
Eckroat, Austin | 4.3 | 6700 |
Rose, Justin | 3.9 | 7900 |
Thompson, Davis | 3.6 | 6900 |
Lower, Justin | 3.6 | 6800 |
Hossler, Beau | 3.4 | 7000 |
Baddeley, Aaron | 3.4 | 6600 |
An, Byeong | 3.2 | 7100 |
Martin, Ben | 3.2 | 6500 |
Bramlett, Joseph | 2.7 | 6700 |
Hubbard, Mark | 2.6 | 7000 |
Lingmerth, David | 2.5 | 6700 |
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan | 2.4 | 7700 |
Daffue, MJ | 2.4 | 6700 |
Moore, Taylor | 2.3 | 7300 |
Burmester, Dean | 2.2 | 7400 |
Lashley, Nate | 2.1 | 7100 |
Cink, Stewart | 2.0 | 6800 |
Laird, Martin | 1.9 | 7200 |
Hahn, James | 1.9 | 6800 |
Schenk, Adam | 1.9 | 6600 |
Novak, Andrew | 1.8 | 6400 |
Suh, Justin | 1.8 | 7100 |
Landry, Andrew | 1.8 | 6500 |
Thompson, Michael | 1.7 | 6900 |
Hall, Harry | 1.6 | 6600 |
Long, Adam | 1.4 | 6900 |
Kodaira, Satoshi | 1.4 | 6600 |
Alexander, Tyson | 1.4 | 6400 |
Vegas, Jhonattan | 1.3 | 7200 |
Kizzire, Patton | 1.3 | 6900 |
Armour, Ryan | 1.3 | 6600 |
Johnson, Zack | 1.3 | 6400 |
Rai, Aaron | 1.2 | 7300 |
Ghim, Doug | 1.2 | 6800 |
Hadley, Chesson | 1.2 | 6700 |
Hoffman, Charley | 1.1 | 6700 |
Semikawa, Taiga | 1.1 | 6300 |
Echavarria, Nico | 1.1 | 6200 |
Glover, Lucas | 0.9 | 6700 |
Piercy, Scott | 0.9 | 6500 |
Moore, Ryan | 0.9 | 6300 |
Merritt, Troy | 0.8 | 6900 |
Stevens, Sam | 0.8 | 6200 |
Willett, Danny | 0.7 | 7000 |
Cole, Eric | 0.7 | 6300 |
Wu, Brandon | 0.6 | 6800 |
Cook, Austin | 0.6 | 6400 |
Shelton, Robby | 0.5 | 7000 |
Frittelli, Dylan | 0.5 | 6800 |
Lee, Danny | 0.5 | 6500 |
Van Rooyen, Erik | 0.4 | 6700 |
Huh, John | 0.4 | 6500 |
Sabbatini, Rory | 0.4 | 6400 |
Barnes, Erik | 0.4 | 6400 |
Dufner, Jason | 0.4 | 6100 |
Garnett, Brice | 0.3 | 6600 |
Reavie, Chez | 0.3 | 6600 |
Higgo, Garrick | 0.3 | 6500 |
Blair, Zac | 0.3 | 6500 |
Streb, Robert | 0.3 | 6400 |
Chappell, Kevin | 0.3 | 6200 |
Werenski, Richy | 0.3 | 6100 |
Surratt, Caleb (a) | 0.3 | 6000 |
Malnati, Peter | 0.2 | 6500 |
Hickok, Kramer | 0.2 | 6300 |
Duncan, Tyler | 0.2 | 6300 |
Gligic, Michael | 0.2 | 6300 |
Nunez, Augusto | 0.2 | 6200 |
Wu, Dylan | 0.2 | 6200 |
Werbylo, Trevor | 0.2 | 6000 |
Schmid, Matthias (Matti) | 0.1 | 6600 |
Duo, Zecheng | 0.1 | 6500 |
Kim, Michael | 0.1 | 6400 |
Higgs, Harry | 0.1 | 6400 |
Schwab, Matthias | 0.1 | 6300 |
Trainer, Martin | 0.1 | 6300 |
Stuard, Brian | 0.1 | 6300 |
Westmoreland, Kyle | 0.1 | 6200 |
Wiebe, Gunner | 0.1 | 6200 |
Haas, Bill | 0.1 | 6100 |
Walker, Jimmy | 0.1 | 6100 |
Brehm, Ryan | 0.1 | 6100 |
Lebioda, Hank | 0.1 | 6100 |
Watney, Nick | 0.1 | 6000 |
Young, Carson | 0.1 | 6000 |
Bryan, Wesley | 0.1 | 6000 |
Albertson, Anders | 0.1 | 6000 |
Goya, Tano | 0.1 | 6000 |
Byrd, Jonathan | 0.1 | 6000 |
Norrman, Vincent | 0.0 | 6300 |
Haley II, Paul | 0.0 | 6200 |
Tway, Kevin | 0.0 | 6200 |
Roy, Kevin | 0.0 | 6200 |
Kang, Sung | 0.0 | 6100 |
Endycott, Harrison | 0.0 | 6100 |
Matthews, Brandon | 0.0 | 6100 |
Cone, Trevor | 0.0 | 6100 |
Grant, Brent | 0.0 | 6100 |
McGreevy, Max | 0.0 | 6000 |
Harrington, Scott | 0.0 | 6000 |
Pak, John | 0.0 | 6000 |
Block, Michael | 0.0 | 6000 |
These figures for The American Express are accurate as of 18:26 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.
My picks for The American Express
Top Tier: Cam Young
Mid Tier: Taylor Pendrith
Low Tier: Jason Day
Out in Left Play: Bo Hossler
Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky
FR Leader: Keith Mitchell
FR Leader: Ben Griffin (contrarian)
One of my Palo Alto crew will be watching the practice rounds for intel this week. So far the buzz is about Phil Mickelson not being involved anymore. For years he and his charities have been the host of the Amex. After he mentioned that he should be acknowledged for dealing with some “scary MF’s” to force the PGA to open it’s purse strings, both Amex and the PGA quietly made future plans without him. Most of the staff and vendors and volunteers are vocal and have noticed him missing this year. Last years winner (Swafford) as well as previous winners have made the move to LIV and will not be involved. It will be interesting to see if the Golf Channel or NBC even mention last years champion.
What to Watch
Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. Their picks are free square plays. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! Take twenty minutes or so and type in Bettor Golf Podcast and make your wallet happy and thicker!
The Premier Live Stream
This past week The PGA Draftcast saw their guest host win the week which is a rarity, unless your Jason Sobel. When I first started out I must have asked him 100 questions a week. He was kind enough to answer some of them….for a very short time…smile. Last night there were names like Clark, Pendrith and even Hossler, (who I like this week) being rostered. This is the week to pivot to lower owned players with the upside, with three days of scoring it balances the field a little more. Use the Nicklaus and LaQuinta courses for Show Down. Don’t be afraid to roster the harder Stadium course on day 1 for the main 4 day tourney. They all have to play it once, if a golfer comes out with a -3 on the harder course day 1 and knows he has two easier courses left it creates a momentum mentality, its a slight edge but an edge just the same. If he shoots +3 he knows he can come back and make the cut with two easy courses to follow.
Don’t forget to tune in to The DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia, Spencer, and Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board!
I once had a pre season football game in New York, I had a 13 year old cousin from Scarsdale who asked if he could visit me in the hotel room and the team said yes. I went up to the hotel clerk and asked her to please make the porn in my room disabled. She replied, “that’s sick, we only have regular porn.”
As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!