Jason Mezrahi 
There have been quite a few NFL rule changes over the past few years that benefit offensive players and play into Daily Fantasy Football Strategy. Defensive backs aren’t allowed to hand-check and hold nearly as much as they used to, and pass rushers basically can’t touch the quarterback at all. Both of these changes have made passing easier. Rule changes to protect receivers, making it illegal to hit defenseless receivers or hit them in the neck/head region, have resulted in more missed tackles and bigger windows for receptions, too. These changes have raised the stakes on your offensive drafting. Offense in NFL DFS has always been important, but these rule changes have made it even more so.
When putting together your team, choosing the right defense will also be important. Because you get points for sacks and turnovers as well as for holding opposing offenses to fewer points, it’s a smart Daily Fantasy Football Strategy to target teams who get great pressure on the quarterback to force turnovers and hold offenses to low point output.
Taking a look at DVOA (Defense Value Over Average) is a good place to start when researching defenses as part of your Daily Fantasy Football Strategy approach. DVOA calculates a team’s success each play during the season and how successful they are compared to the league average for that down and distance. A defense that ranks near the top in DVOA is better on average week in and week out than the rest of the league. Go after the defense that has proven to be able to game plan against their opponents to hold them to fewer points than other defenses.
Also check out what they defendagainst well and what they don’t. Some teams are really good against the runbut have a weak secondary, and vice versa. A team may have a great DVOA becauseof their secondary, but if they have an average defensive line and linebacking coreand are facing off against a team that’s averaging well over one hundred yardsin rushing each week, they’re likely to see that DVOA ranking drop after givingup a lot of points on the ground. The same is true with passing defense numbers.Remember that the game is skewed toward the offense now, and the best offensiveteams in each category will beat the best defensive teams in that category.
The best way to target your defense, though, isn’t really about the defense at all. It’s most important to pick your defense based on their opponent. Low-scoring offenses rarely have breakout performances, no matter who they’re up against. So, as you pick your defense and consider your Daily Fantasy Football Strategy approach here, start your research by taking a look at the worst-performing offenses and who they’re playing that week. Especially look to target teams missing their starting QB, key pieces of their offensive line, or their stud RB. It’s a savvy Daily Fantasy Football Strategy.
As you identify good matchups, beaware that weather can have an effect—although not as much as you might think.Light rain, snow, or wind doesn’t have much of an effect on offensive players. However,heavy snow and rain can make it more difficult for quarterbacks to throw well,for running backs to hold on to the ball, and for receivers to completereceptions. During snowy games, the amount of accumulation on the ground isvery important: while offensive players may be slowed down a bit, defensiveplayers are too, which can open up some great opportunities for long catch-and-runTD’s.
Heavy winds over 20 mph are rare but do occur several times throughout each season. Strong wind will have the worst effect on the offense, affecting quarterbacks and the receiving core most. Be sure to check out the weather reports the day of the games to see if any weather threats are affecting the players you have chosen and your Daily Fantasy Football Strategy.
Games played in domes are typicallygood for offenses, as players will be able to play faster with more surefooting. Identifying offenses with fast skill players who are playing insidethat week is a good plan: their speedy guys might be able to break through forbig gains during the winter months when other teams’ offenses will be sloweddown by heavy snow, rain, and frigid temperatures.
Something else to keep in mind as is that injuries are common in the NFL. Reading the practice reports as they come out during the week will be crucial to your success and Daily Fantasy Football Strategy. If a player is inactive or if he’s questionable, take a look at his replacement, especially if it’s an RB in a run-heavy offense or a WR in a pass-heavy one. Teams won’t change their entire offensive structure just because a player is out that week. They will plug the next guy in and keep right on going. These players will typically be flying under the radar, as low-owned backups. However, be careful about reading too much into these reports, as teams are deceptive in their approach and disclose as little as possible about their players’ injuries so that their upcoming opponents don’t catch wind of a crucial injury.
Byeweeks are crucial for players who are battling nagging injuries. If there’s aplayer who’s been listed on his team’s practice report as questionable for acouple weeks due to a minor injury, but he gets a full bye week to rest, he couldbe a good buy-low candidate if the team goes into a matchup that will favorthem. After an extra week of rest and treatment, he might be lined up for abreakout performance.
The converse of that is when players are coming off a short week or flying cross-country, getting less rest between games. Be especially aware of which direction teams are flying each week when considering this in Daily Fantasy Football Strategy. If one of the players you’re considering is on a West Coast team and is heading East to play an early game in the 1:00 p.m. slot, you may want to slide down his projection a tad. That’s a tough adjustment for the player to make, and if you’re considering two players side by side, that might make the difference for you.
Low-owned players in general should be a place for you to look for value picks. If somebody is struggling early on in a new system or battling injuries but is facing off against a weak defense or other conditions that favor him, it would be a good bet to take a flyer on him as a value pick who may break out. This is especially true when players face off against defenses with certain weaknesses. Maybe an RB is having a tough season but is playing a team with a weak defensive line. That’s a great opportunity to get some value out of a cheaper pick. Similarly, using middling receivers versus banged-up secondaries is a good Daily Fantasy Football strategy.
