DFSGhost 
CS:GO Slate Summary: Nine to Five (11am EST)
- 2 series on DK
- Best of 3
CS:GO SlateOverview
CS:GO Matchup#1: CR4ZY (+162) vs AVEZ (-225)
The first matchup of the CS:GO slate sees CR4ZY taking on AVEZ with the latter being higher ranked at #63 than the former at #71, but both teams have won back-to-back series and are coming off impressive upsets versus sAw and Illuminar, respectively. CR4ZY bans Dust2 first at a 74% rate while AVEZ’s top ban is Mirage, which they do 74% of the time. CR4ZY selects Nuke first 21% of the time and boast an 86% winning percentage in 7 maps played, although they can also turn to Vertigo here, where they are riding a 6-map winning streak and pick it first at a 21% rate as well, but the former is more likely. AVEZ is likely to pick Overpass with their first selection, which they do at a 26% rate and have a 56% winning rate on 16 maps played; they hold a massive advantage there, where CR4ZY has only played twice in the past 3 months. With either Nuke or Vertigo leftover, along with Train and Inferno, we are likely to see Inferno as the third map of the series, where AVEZ does hold the advantage in win rate, but CR4ZY have the edge in experience. Markos is the awper for AVEZ and has been playing phenomenally as of late and remains too cheap for the value he can return, boasting 0.79 kills per round and a 1.33 K/D over the past month, including a whopping +27 on 47-20 in a 2-0 series upset versus Illuminar the other day. Kei is the primary rifle fragger I want here for AVEZ and he looked great versus Illuminar the other day, going +19 on 38-19. On the flipside, CR4ZY’s awper SENSEi is a good payup option; he has a 1.30 K/D and 0.72 kills per round in the past month, including a +38 on 105-67 in his last 5 maps played, and if they want to win the series, they’ll need Sergiz to have a good series; he is the main rifle fragger on the squad along with DemQQ, but the former does have a better K/D (1.10 to 1.07) in the past month despite having a lower kills per round (0.70 to 0.73); he is +36 on 94-58 on his last 4 maps played. Although I think AVEZ wins this one, I will hedge it in case CR4ZY pulls off yet another upset.
Top Plays(AVEZ): Markos ($6,600), Kei ($8,400), byali ($7,000)
Top Plays(CZY): SENSEi ($8,000), Sergiz ($6,200)
CS:GO Matchup #2: Syman (-275) vs SG.pro (+300)
The second matchup of the CS:GO slate sees the chalk, Syman, taking on SG.pro. At first glance, Syman is a lock on paper, but further analysis proves otherwise; while the favorite is higher ranked at #47 compared to their opponent at #70, SG.pro did sweep Syman just 6 weeks ago in their most recent matchup. SG bans Inferno heavily at an 88% rate while Syman bans Vertigo first at a 53% rate, so we’re unlikely to see those two maps. Both teams typically pick Train so one will for sure choose it; Syman does hold the advantage in winning percentage (67% to 50%) and in experience (18 maps played to 8), but SG had no problem beating them 16-13 in their last matchup. If SG does not pick Train, they’ll likely turn to Mirage with their pick, where they only have 4 maps played but are 4-0 compared to Syman’s 3-7 record. We’re likely going to see Overpass leftover since Syman isn’t fond of Nuke and SG would get crushed on Dust2. While Syman is a heavy favorite, I wouldn’t be surprised to see SG take this one, and if they do, it’ll be on the back of their awper, kise, and their two primary rifle fraggers, fame and s1natoRRR; below are their stats over the past month:
- kise: 1.24 K/D, 0.73 kills per round
- fame: 1.15 K/D, 0.78 kills per round
- s1natoRRR: 1.14 K/D, 0.77 kills per round
On the flipside, Syman’s lofty ownership means we have to play them in cash games; the top target is their awper, mou, who has a 1.19 K/D and 0.74 kills per round in the last month, and is largely the top producer with primary rifle fragger n0rb3r7 who has a 1.02 K/D and 0.69 kills per round over the past month. I really wish I could tell you why Keoz is so expensive at $9,800, but he certainly does not deserve to have a ZywOo-esque price tag when he has a 0.91 K/D and 0.62 kills per round over the past month, but maybe DK knows something we don’t. The underdog is more than viable here, and I think I’ll be overweight on them in large field tournaments, but you can’t deny the heavy ownership that Syman will carry and the associated risk with fading them in single entry tournaments and cash games.
Top Plays (SG): kise ($6,400), fame ($7,800), s1natoRRR($6,800)
Top Plays(SYM): mou ($9,000), n0rb3r7 ($7,400)
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