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CS:GO DFS: Ghost’s CS Summit Breakdown 06/25

CS:GO Slate Summary: CS Summit (11:55am EST)

  • 4 series on DK
  • Best of 3

CS:GO SlateOverview

CS:GO Game#1: FaZe (+110) vs BIG (-150)

The first game of the CS:GO slate has plenty of intrigue and will draw ownership on both sides; you need exposure here in all of your GPP lineups. BIG takes on FaZe for the third time in the past month, having swept them 2-0 in their previous two matchups at DreamHack. BIG has been playing lights out ever since then, where they eventually beat G2 in the finals of DreamHack and have since won 10 of their past 11 series.

BIG bansTrain 91% of the time while FaZe bans Vertigo at a 74% rate, so we’re unlikelyto see any of those maps selected here. Although BIG has a 25% first-pick rateon Dust2, I imagine they would turn to Nuke where they have FaZe severelyoutmatched; FaZe will then probably counter with either Mirage or Inferno,where BIG does just fine: BIG posts a 71% win rate on Mirage in 17 maps playedwhile also carrying a 5-map winning streak, whereas FaZe has a 71% win rate in14 maps played; BIG has an 80% win rate on Dust2 in 20 maps played including ridinga 4-map winning streak whereas FaZe has a 71% win rate on 17 maps played.Carried by the elite talent that is syrsoN, who has a 1.32 K/D and 0.79 killsper round in the past month, BIG is my pick today.

Top Plays: syrsoN($8,600), tabseN ($7,600), XANTERES ($6,800)

CS:GO Game #2: Team Heretics (-120 PK) vs OG (-120 PK)

The second game of the CS:GO slate sees Maka and Team Heretics taking on OG. Luckily for us, Heretics got their rust off with a 2-1 loss to a lousy sAw team a few days ago after having only played 1 other series since June 4th, and they are in a prime spot to bounce back in a big way here. Heretics bans Train 79% of the time with their first ban while OG bans Vertigo 91% of the time, so we can cross those two maps off. Since their best map, Vertigo, was banned from them, I expect HER to turn to Nuke or Dust2 with their first selection while OG will likely counter with Mirage, where Heretics actually posts a better winning percentage. Having an amazing individual talent in Maka and his 1.30 K/D and 0.74 kills per round gives HER a huge boost, but Lucky (1.07 K/D and 0.66 kills per round) and Nivera (1.47 K/D and 0.82 kills per round) aren’t too shabby of a supporting cast (I’m kidding obviously); Heretics takes care of business here. If playing OG, a win will be on the backs of mantuu ($8,200) and valde ($8,000) but I just can’t see it happening, let alone the fact that they are priced way too high for my liking.

Top Plays: Maka ($10,200), Nivera ($7,400), Lucky ($7,000)

CS:GO Game#3: Evil Geniuses (+110) vs FURIA (-138)

The third game of the CS:GO slate is by far the toughest to predict. EG is coming off an impressive win at BLAST Premier, and what can be said about CeRq? The guy has been lights out in the past few weeks and if it weren’t for him, this pick would be a slam dunk, but let’s get down to it to make sure we make the right one. FURIA bans Dust2 100% of the time with their first ban, and while EG typically bans Overpass first (43%), they need to keep FURIA off Mirage since they themselves aren’t too comfortable on Overpass, and that’s exactly what I think they’ll do. FURIA will then turn to Vertigo and attempt to take advantage of EG not banning it, while EG will select Inferno, leaving Nuke or Train leftover. As much as I think the FURIA duo of HEN1 ($7,800) and yuurih ($7,400) are underpriced, and think they can lead their squad to victory, I’m just not sure we can fade CeRq ($7,200) any time soon; he has a 1.15 K/D and 0.74 kills per round over the past month, including going +21 on 95-74 in his last 4 maps played. I’ll take EG 2-1 here but will have shares of both sides since FURIA can easily outscore EG if they keep it close enough and avoid a sweep, despite a losing effort. I’m also not opposed to having one piece of each side, which I rarely do, but just make sure it’s CeRq and one of HEN1/yuurih.

Top Plays(EG): CeRq ($7,200), Brehze ($7,000)

Top Plays(FUR): HEN1 ($7,800), yuurih ($7,400)

CS:GO Game#4: GenG (+100) vs Cloud9 (-138)

The last game of the CS:GO slate sees two of the most inconsistent, unpredictable squads facing off against each other – yay! C9 comes in at #20 while GenG comes in at #19, albeit the latter has been reeling in June, losing 5 of their past 6 series. C9 is in much better form, and they have beat GenG once this month, but every series is a new one, so let’s take a deep dive into some statistics. C9 bans Mirage first at an 84% rate while GenG bans Overpass, C9’s best map, at a 68% rate, so we’re unlikely to see those maps available to be selected. Since their best map is banned, I imagine C9 would turn to Nuke or Dust2 with their pick, while GenG likely selects Train, which they do 30% of the time with their first pick. The issue for them is that C9 has a 64% winning percentage, including a 4-map winning streak, in 14 maps played on Train, whereas GenG has a 42% win rate on 12 maps played. Unless C9 pulls their infamous “let’s get a lead and choke!!”, I can’t see them losing this one, and as much as I liked to pick on his inconsistency in May, oSee ($8,800) has been lights out in June, going +98 (!!!) on 353-255 in 14 maps played.   

Top Plays: oSee($8,800), floppy ($8,400)

You can find me in the WinDaily Discord chat and on twitter @DFS_Ghost!

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