Missouri’s cover, and outright win, helped us close out a 3-1 day and move our bowl record to 13-7. Today brings us another full card of bowl games leading into a big NFL matchup between the Lions and Cowboys. So it’s a full day of football to keep an eye on as you get prepared for NYE.

2023 BOWL GAME RECORD: 13-7

Saturday December 30th

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL (12:00PM EST): OLE MISS REBELS +6 vs PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Both schools come into this game with intact offensive skill positions. Penn State has the bigger opt-out issues as they are losing their top defender, Chop Robinson, and top offensive lineman, Olu Fashanu, for this game. They also may be without star DB Kalen King though there is news he will play.

On the other hand, the Rebels biggest loss is Edge rusher Cedric Johnson. But to offset that, they’ve been riding a wave of momentum with several key players signing at Ole Miss as they have a projected top 10 recruiting class in 2024. HC Lane Kiffin will want to impress the new class and come out of this game with a victory.

We’ve already seen one SEC team prevail against the Big 10 in Missouri over Ohio State. And while OSU was shorthanded, it did show the elite level of play that occurs week in and week out in the SEC. Penn State played the top teams in the Big 10, but their out of conference schedule was WVU, Delaware, and UMASS. That’ll rack up wins, but won’t prepare you for the top teams in the nation. Remember, Michigan did not pass the ball once against Penn State in the 2nd half of their victory in University Park. Ole Miss has one of the best RB’s in the nation in Quinton Judkins and I expect them to be physical and try to replicate Michigan’s success.

So with that, I’m backing the Rebels who have a slight edge in roster continuity and a motivation. And I also think schedule is the biggest factor when handicapping this game.

TRANSPERFECT MUSIC CITY BOWL (2:00PM EST): MARYLAND TERRAPINS +7 vs AUBURN TIGERS

If you weren’t aware, Tua Tagovailoa’s brother is the starting QB at Maryland. However, you won’t get a chance to see Taulia Tagovailoa play today as he opted out to prepare for the National Football League draft. And that’s the biggest news of this game as it moved the spread over 6 points in Auburn’s favor.

And that is rightfully so as the Tigers do own one of the better defenses in the nation. If there is any area, they are susceptible to it is against the run as they rank 73rd in rush success defense. And that will be a key to this game as RB Roman Hemby will be the focal point for the Terrapins in Taulia’s absence.

For me this is simply too many points for an Auburn team that lost 31-10 versus New Mexico State back in November. Their offense is not capable of running away from teams as they rank 102nd in pass success. QB Payton Thorne had a decent year but just isn’t slinging it around like he was at Michigan State. As much as Maryland football scares me, my hope is that the turnovers and pass-heavy play calling are both minimized without Tua Two behind center. And that will be the path to a close game and Terrapin cover.

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL (4:00 PM EST): GEORGIA BULLDOGS -20 vs FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

I’m not even sure I’ll bet this game as there is too much uncertainty. On one hand, Georgia is coming into this game almost fully intact. Even their one big question mark, TE Brock Bowers, looks like he’ll play. On the other hand, we have Florida State who has at least 20 players opting out, injured or in the portal. They are without their top 2 QB’s, top 3 WR’s, and top 3 RB’s. The poor offense that we saw against Louisville, which USC QB Miller Moss just eviscerated, will be even worse today.

As much as head coach Mike Norvell can be a great motivator, the talent gap is just too wide for FSU to keep this close. I hate betting a line this high especially knowing that the entire public will also back UGA. But I can’t put my money on QB Brock Glenn and this semblance of weapons against a tenacious Georgia team that is motivated to win another bowl game.

BARSTOOL SPORTS ARIZONA BOWL (4:30 PM EST): WYOMING COWBOYS -3.5 vs TOLEDO ROCKETS

Motivation will be on the side of Wyoming in this game as Head Coach Craig Bohl has announced his retirement from football. Bohl coached 10 seasons at Wyoming, including coaching QB Josh Allen. But prior to that he was HC at North Dakota State where he won three National Titles. The Cowboys will surely want to win one for their coach and put everything on the line to do so. In doing so, they’ll have most of their team available including 6th year starting QB Andrew Peasley.

For Toledo, they are losing several key players including QB Dequan Finn and RB Peny Boone. They had a great year, going 11-2, and losing to just Illinois and Miami-OH (in the MAC Championship game). But the motivation as well as roster is in shambles.

Finally, while Toledo boasts a solid D their strength is against the pass. And Wyoming just doesn’t pass the ball that often and instead leans on Peasley and RB Harrison Waylee to carry the load. Because of that, and the other edges explained above, I’m going with Wyoming today to cover this line and win the Arizona Bowl.

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