DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
It must be said that the PGA Championship provided a highly entertaining, exciting, and yet a somewhat bizarre event. As the dust settles on our second major of the year, reflecting on the tournament it does seem strange that Justin Thomas managed to snatch victory from the jaws of nothingness and become a two-time major winner. Not because he didn’t deserve the victory, but simply that the manner of victory was so atypical to what we have come to expect in these flagship events.
The weather played out basically as predicted and the Thursday AM/Friday PM wave enjoyed a substantial advantage from the draw. Any number of names could, and perhaps should, have won the event. Several could have shot even par and won. Sunday presented the calmest weather of the week and, although arguably some of the tougher pin positions were used, the vast majority crumbled under the pressure. At 3:05pm, JT was a massive 8 strokes behind the leaders with just 12 holes to play. He is your PGA Championship winner for 2022. Golf is a wonderful sport.
From a tipping standpoint, it was another profitable week marking 6 of the last 7 weeks in the positive. Cameron Young was well in contention and certainly had his chances to step up and win the tournament, eventually finishing just one shot off the eventual playoff. He returned us a Top 8 place cash of $17 as well as Top 20 at $3.80.
300/1 tip Lucas Herbert once again showed why he must be included whenever wind is a significant factor. After 10 holes on Sunday, Herbert was sitting in 5th and looking a chance to return place money at equivalent odds of $61. Perhaps some nerves came in for the young Australian in his most competitive major showing, as he completely lost his swing from the 11th as he went on a run of three bogeys and a double. Finishing birdie-birdie was a feat that few completed, and he returned Top 30 money at $9.50 as he ended the week in 13th.
Had you told me at the beginning of the week that Cameron Smith would lead the field for SG: Tee-to-Green, I would have been quietly confident of cashing a winner on him. Instead, the player with arguably the best short game in the world had a cold putter and wound up in 13th. 275/1 pick Ryan Fox impressed with three consecutive rounds of even par 70 to sit 17th, before eventually capitulating in a final round 77. Unfortunately, a new injury emerged for Hideki Matsuyama, and we never saw the best of him. And after showing promise having started the week with an opening round 67 to sit 4th, Matt Kuchar also faded in the final day to finish 34th.
This week the PGA Tour moves just up the road to Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. The event is a staple on tour, holding invitational status and a boosted purse as a result, and is the longest running event on the PGA Tour held at the same venue. It feels a treat to have so much data to go off after three weeks of new courses. Who should you back this week? This is your weekly golf deep dive and Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Tips.
Course Analysis
Colonial Country Club plays host this week with a short 7,209 par-70 that on average plays closer to the 7,000-yard mark. This is another Perry Maxwell design as we saw last week, when Jordan Spieth was quoted as describing Southern Hills as “Colonial on steroids”.
The course’s defence comes from the tree-lined fairways, with narrow alleyways and thick 3-inch Bermuda rough ready to gobble up any wayward tee shot. Positioning off the tee as several doglegs create difficult angles which could see trees and branches blocking the second shot if on the wrong side of the fairway. The course has averaged in the bottom 10 on tour for both driving distance and driving accuracy.
Approach shots must be accurate into very small greens, with an average of just 5,000 sq ft. The greens do feature some bunkering, but these are not particularly difficult and given the thick rough the around the green game can be somewhat equalized as creativity gives way to simply hacking the ball out. The greens again use bentgrass as we have seen for the past 4 tournaments.
An accurate and well-placed drive, followed by an excellent approach shot, are likely to be good predictors of success around here. A look at prior winners demonstrates this with the likes of Zach Johnson twice, Steve Stricker, Chris Kirk, Kevin Na, and Justin Rose all having enjoyed success here.
Expect a winning score of somewhere in the vicinity of 12-17 under par.
Weather
As is often the case in Texas, wind is likely to play a factor especially in the weekend.
Thursday should see an advantage for those off in the morning, with winds of just 5-7mph and gusts to 12mph. In the afternoon, the forecast is for this to be picking up to 13-16mph prevailing and gusts of 25-30mph. Friday should be very calm, 2-5mph winds and a few gusts up to 12mph mild at best.
Over the weekend, more substantial winds can be expected with Saturday and Sunday seeing winds of 15-20mph and gusts anywhere from 28-34mph.
Although nowhere near as the substantial advantage we saw last week, there is a small gain for the Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times to make the most of the calmer conditions Thursday morning and players who are “wind-positive” will be a benefit in general for those entering the weekend.
https://www.windy.com/32.719/-97.371?32.702,-97.371,13,m:ezGadsR
Related Courses
There is certainly a wealth of data from Colonial Country Club itself to be used here. However, similar shorter course where driving accuracy and approach shots are strong indicators of performance and particularly those often subject to the wind can provide some guidance for us here. Think the Plantation Course at Sea Island GC, Harbour Town Golf Links, Austin Country Club, TPC Southwind and TPC Potomac hosting the Wells Fargo Championship also providing the added benefit of some recent incoming form.
Suggested Staking
– Abraham Ancer 1.5pt E/W $36.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)
– Webb Simpson 1.5pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)
– Harold Varner III 1pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)
– Harold Varner III 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)
– Kevin Na 1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)
– Kevin Na 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)
– J.J. Spaun 0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4th odds)
– J.J. Spaun 2pt Top 20 $4.75 (Bet365)
Abraham Ancer
Abe Ancer likely disappointed many punters at the Mexico Open, as many played a nationality narrative hoping to see him play well in his national open. The simple fact is a shootout on a long track is not the type of tournament where we typically expect him to perform well. Ancer needs a test such as we find here, where he can play to his strengths of accurate driving and approach play.
Such related course form jumps off the page for Ancer. He has never missed a cut in four appearances here, with his two most recent performances resulting in 14th place finishes. The 2020 was perhaps the most impressive, as this was the first tournament back from lockdown and basically every golfer who was able chose to play resulting in an incredibly strong field. Ancer was also a quarterfinalist at this year’s match-play at Austin Country Club, an 18th and 2nd at Harbour Town, a 4th at TPC Potomac, and an 18th, 15th and victory at TPC Southwind tells us the type of tracks where we can expect Ancer to perform.
Outside of the States, an 8th at this year’s Saudi International and a 6th in 2020 is perhaps a little more hidden. The Royal Greens Golf & Country Club provides a very short test that demands accurate driving due to numerous hazards and is almost always very wind exposed being on the coast. It also often boasts an incredibly strong field as appearance fees have attracted some of the top golfers in the world.
Ancer popped out of some pretty average form at the PGA Championship finishing 9th, when in hindsight a final day of 1 under would have been sufficient to see him in the playoff. In fact, he had his best approach week since that 2021 victory at TPC Southwind. That spike in his iron play is eye-catching.
Ancer ended up finishing last week in the top 20 for both SG: Approach and SG: Putting, on a track with similar bentgrass greens here. Combine that with ranking 3rd for the season in driving accuracy and a similar calibre of performance of approach play this week should see him in contention.
Webb Simpson
Having reached a peak of 4th in the world in June 2020, Webb Simpson has been in a tough run of form but another where some sparks of life in his game indicate a return to better days may be on the horizon.
When finishing 20th last week, Simpson gained across the board in every metric on the field including shooting the lowest 3rd round with a 65. Of note, Simpson had an equipment change with a new set of irons and experienced an immediate improvement in his game. Another week of getting accustomed to them will undoubtedly be beneficial and may provide the change needed.
Typically strong with his irons, his best performance this year came when 8th at the similar and windy Sea Island Golf Course for the RSM Classic. That week he gained over 13 strokes on the field for approach to top the field in that metric, with 5 strokes over a distant 2nd on a track where he also has prior finishes of a 3rd and 2nd
Other related form can be found at Harbour Town with a run of 11-5-16-W-9 between 2017-2021 and a form line of 3-MC-2-12-15 at TPC Southwind. Although his prior best finishes of 3rd and 5th at Colonial happened some time ago, the fact he has performed well here previously must undoubtedly still provide positives. Webb has gained significantly on the field for driving accuracy in his last 5 stroke play events, and a track which suits his game combined with some recent equipment changes may be the recipe for success.
Harold Varner III
HV3 turned up last week with a very consistent, if somewhat unremarkable, performance shooting 71-71-72-72 on a very tough golf course. Again, it was a track that shouldn’t really have suited him as all his best performances of late have come on shorter tracks where wind has been a factor.
Harold Varner III has been in excellent form this year and sits 5th in this field for SG: Total over the last 3 months. Most notable is obviously the win in the aforementioned Saudi International, but complimented by a 6th at the windy Players Championship, 23rd at The Masters, 3rd at RBC Heritage (where he was also 2nd in 2021) and 4th at the Zurich Classic.
The approach play particularly has been in a great state, gaining on the field in 9 out of 10 of his most recent performances and sitting 6th in this field for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. His driving accuracy does come and go but having gained a massive 21% on the field average when finishing 19th at the 2020 iteration of this tournament allays some of those fears. HV3 has looked very close on a number of occasions this year and this could perhaps be his breakthrough week.
Kevin Na
Kevin Na is on a nice run of form arriving here this year. Incoming form of 9th (quarterfinalist at Austin Country Club), 14th at The Masters, 26th at RBC Heritage, 42nd at the long and unsuitable Mexico Open, and 23rd at last week’s PGA Championship is all very solid.
Where that run has come from is built on solid approach play. He has gained strokes on approach in his last 5 tournaments, including leading the field at The Masters in that metric. Given a lack of distance off the tee, Kevin Na is often looking for these short courses where his accuracy off the tee and with iron in hand can come to the fore.
All of his 5 PGA Tour victories have come on similar shorter tracks where the par has been 70 or 71. The 2019 winner at this tournament, he holds extensive experience and impressive performances here. 8/14 appearances here have resulted in a finish of 22nd or better, with 5 of those within the Top 10. Combined with a further 5 Top 10s at RBC Heritage should tell us all we need to know about where Kevin Na brings out his best performances.
J. J. Spaun
Finally, I will wrap up this week’s tips with a familiar name in J.J. Spaun. I tipped Spaun as he secured his maiden victory at the Texas Open at 150/1, so to find him back in Texas with odds still at 125/1 is an appealing price which I am happy to back him at.
He missed the cut last week on the number in what was really a track that is too long for him, losing shots off the tee and finding a cold putter too. He did, however, finish 2nd best for SG: Approach in those who missed the cut and would have been 6th overall in that metric had he carried that through to the weekend.
Spaun has gained on the field for driving accuracy in 18/21 tournaments so far this year and beaten the field for SG: Approach in 10/13 of his most recent tournaments. Of note this season were a 7th at a very windy Bermuda Championship, 16th at the RSM Classic, 16th at Pebble Beach have all been at shorter tracks where wind has come into play.
That combination of metrics with recent incoming form and prior course form is a combination that is too much to pass by at this figure.
As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Wishing you all the best with your picks and another successful week.
