adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
Welcome to my preview for the Championship Sunday DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).
Championship Sunday DFS – Titans at Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST Opening Line: Kansas City -7.5 | Over/Under 51
The first thing about this game is the total movement from the open because the spread has stayed steady at 7.5. It started at 51 in total and is up to 53 since the lines were released. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 76 games with over/under lines between 52 and 54. In these games:
- Over the line 37 times (48.7%).
- Under the line 36 times (47.4%).
- Pushed the line 3 times (3.9%).
Worth noting as well for the Titans they are playing their fourth-straight road game. History has not been kind to teams playing four consecutive road games and there is a reason why the regular-season schedule does not create situations where teams are forced to play four road games in a row.
Quarterbacks Championship Sunday DFS
It should come to no surprise that in games that the total exceeds 51 or more points Patrick Mahomes ($7,700/$9,500), puts on an absolute clinic. Before the divisional playoff game (when he scored 40-plus), Mahomes’ splits can be seen in the tweet below. He is clearly the best quarterback on the two-game slate, but that is why he is the most expensive. The Titans finished the regular season allowing the sixth-most fantasy points over the last four weeks to quarterbacks.
As for Ryan Tannehill ($5,500/$7,700), he has the tall task of going up versus the Chiefs defense that during the last four weeks of the season allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The best approach in deploying Tannehill on this slate would be to play him in lineups that do not feature the Titans being able to run the ball effectively and are forced to play catch-up versus the Chiefs offense. Tannehill back in Week 10 did score over 19 fantasy points when he completed just 13 passes. However, the home/road splits for Tannehill still are always concerning so on the road in an extremely tough environment I do not see myself rostering too much Tannehill considering Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,200/$7,600) is in a better spot and is cheaper on both sites.
The one thing to consider is Tannehill is he probably is the only quarterback that I would consider playing naked. Tannehill has averaged five rushing attempts per game over his last three starts. Also, the Chiefs will be without Juan Thornhill and likely pass-rusher Chris Jones which makes Tannehill much more appealing.
Defenses
For defenses overall on this slate the Chiefs ($3,100/$4,400) are the most expensive on DraftKings and second most expensive on FanDuel. They are worth paying up for in GPPs and could see suppressed ownership with Mahomes being heavily owned. If the Titans fall behind early, Tannehill could get sacked a ton – 31% of pressures on Tannehill result in sacks. That the highest rate among the league’s starters.
The Titans are dirt-cheap at $2,000 on DraftKings and honestly, for that reason, they become a viable option. Also, it only takes one turnover for their DST to be a factor and over the past two weeks, they have had a DST score. Most people avoid stacking their quarterback versus the DST they are playing, but in this case, it could make sense; play Mahomes and the Tennesse DST on DraftKings to save the salary.
Running Backs
Damien Williams ($7,000/$7,600) is the second-most expensive running back on the slate on DraftKings but is cheaper than Aaron Jones on FanDuel. W do not get the price discount this week with Williams but of all the Chiefs skill players, he has the most projectable role. Not to mention during the regular season the Titans allowed the third-most receptions to backs. He probably will not score three touchdowns again, but the Titans did allow the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs over the regular season. We have seen the Chiefs rely on Williams in the postseason in the past, so I am confident going back to him as the lead running back on the team with the highest implied team total (30.25).
As for Derrick Henry ($8,700/$9,800), well we all know the story of his production by now. I have faded Henry over the last few weeks and that was against even better run defenses in the Patriots and Ravens. The Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to backs over the 2019 regular season. If the Titans are to win this game it will be on the shoulders or QUADs of Henry. You cannot full-on fade him in this spot, even at his price. Teams know they have to stop Henry and up to this point, nobody has been able to execute. In 2019 including the playoffs Henry vs stacked boxes ranks first in attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
The Tennesse Titans are the worst team in the NFL this season versus 12 personnel, which according to SharpFootball Stats in that formation they are allowing 8.8 yards per attempt and a 57% success rate from passes in that formation. Kansas City ranks top five in terms of pass-rate from 12 personnel. This is consistent with the Titans’ defense being weak versus tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed. They allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position and third-most receiving touchdowns during the regular season. So yes wheels are indeed up for Travis Kelce ($7,100/$7,800).
Blake Bell ($2,800/$4,000) also becomes an interesting punt play if Kelce is limited at all by his injury. Bell ran 15 routes last week and had two targets. As for the Tennessee tight ends, it’s extremely tough to trust any of them in this spot this week, but Jonnu Smith ($3,400/$5,600) could end up being a not only a value but a great leverage play if the two elite tight ends on the slate do not fire. Smith leads the NFL in yards after the catch per target per @Rotounderworld. He also leads the Titans in targets over the past two weeks.
As for the wide receiver position, Tyreek Hill ($7,200/$7,400) seemingly has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Hill sees time from the slot and Logan Ryan has been beaten badly by speed guys this season. Also, we saw the speedy Marquise Brown have a super productive day versus this secondary just one week ago. Last week I wanted to be overweight on Kelce, but I think this week is the week to be overweight on Hill. Hill is cheaper than Davante Adams ($7,900/$8,300) on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Via Arrowheadpride.com “The Titans have struggled to defend elite receiving weapons. The last time they saw one was in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. Wide receiver Michael Thomas finished with 136 yards on 12 catches and a score. The week before, Tennessee allowed Texans’ Deandre Hopkins to rack up 119 yards on six receptions. The back half of their schedule did not feature many elite passing offenses — but they lost in the two matchups where they faced one after the Chiefs.”
As for the value receiver on the Chiefs, I am putting my stamp of approval on Mecole Hardman ($3,800/$4,900). Hardman does not see a ton of snaps, (just eight routes ran last week), but he had four targets. When he is on the field the Chiefs are looking for ways to get him the ball. The last time he played the Titans he scored a 63-yard touchdown. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats showed Hardman reached a top speed of 21.85 mph on his return last Saturday and said no NFL ball carrier has had more touches than topped 21.5 mph than Hardman. He is the target in GPPs, while in cash formats, I am fine going with Sammy Watkins ($4,600/$5,200).
On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($5,200)/($6,800) will probably be a pretty popular option in GPPs, but the matchup is extremely tough. The Chiefs rank second-best versus the position during the regular season (only the Patriots were better). At his price, he is someone I am definitely looking to fade. I prefer both slot options for the Titans in receivers Tajae Sharpe ($3,100/$4,700) and Adam Humphries ($3,000/$5,000). If Humphries plays I favor him, and obviously if he misses I want to move to Sharpe. The biggest games that the Chiefs have allowed have primarily been to slot receivers.
Championship Sunday DFS – Packers @ 49ers – 6:40 PM EST Opening Line: San Francisco -7 | Over/Under 45
Quarterbacks, Defenses Championship Sunday DFS
In this game, the total has moved up from 45 to 46.5. The spread has bounced around anywhere between 6.5-7.5. Historically, since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 220 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6.5 to 8.5 points. In these games:
- San Francisco won the game 165 times (75.0%).
- Green Bay won the game 54 times (24.5%).
- Green Bay did better against the spread, going 106-104-10 (50.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 1.3 points.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,100/$8,000) has been one of the most matchup dependent quarterbacks this season. Against a much healthier 49ers defense who has allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt this season overall (5.2) and at home (4.5), it is hard to confidently project a ceiling game from him. I think if you wanted to get contrarian at quarterback you roster Garoppolo. He is the cheapest QB on both sites and showed back in Week 12 versus the Packers he can be extremely efficient. He only completed 14 passes in that game, but still threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.
Assuming that this game is slightly more competitive than that first matchup, 300 yards and three touchdowns from Jimmy G is not that far out of reach. The 49ers averaged 30 passing attempts per game at home this season, and he has yet to hit that threshold over his last three contests.
I do also think that the Packers DST ($2,400/$4,000) is the safest pay-down option on both sites. They are a ton of playmakers across the Green Bay defense that include Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark. They all can cause stress to offenses. I am not trying to play the 49ers DST ($2,900/$4,600) especially on FanDuel where they are the most expensive. Green Bay was second in fewest giveaways per game in 2019.
Running Backs
After his big game last week the price on Tevin Coleman ($5,700/$6,500) has gone way back up. But keep in mind that his 22 carries were the highest of his career. The matchup is extremely juicy versus a terrible Packers’ run defense that ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA during the regular season with the second-worst defensive line in the league, yielding 4.96 adjusted yards per attempt. Still, it is important to note that it was the touchdowns that elevated Coleman, while Raheem Mostert ($4,300/$5,800) still saw 12 carries.
Mostert’s price on DraftKings is very low making him a considerable cash game option. I would advise in GPPs to have some exposure to Matt Breida ($3,400/$5,000) because he has that rare big-play ability and if he makes the most of his touches hr could get the hot-hand approach from the head coach. The 49ers backfield is an ambiguous one for sure and cracking this case will surely lead to a big GPP win as we saw last week with Coleman’s performance.
There is not a lot of injury news when it comes to this slate specifically, but one thing to note is the Packers are coming in extremely healthy. The only players coming in questionable are fullback Danny Vitale and cornerback Tramon Williams. The return of Vitale could potentially be huge for running back Aaron Jones ($6,700/$7,800). The Packers this season have a 51% success rate when running from 21-personnel averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. I think if Vitale plays that could be a significant boost to the Packers rushing attack.
Also, it needs to be said that in the previous matchup where Jones was limited to just 38 yards on 13 carries, that was when DJ Jones was still playing for SF. He went on IR after Week 14. Weeks 15-17 the 49ers allowed a 58% success rate and 4.8 yards per carry from 12 personnel. With more tight ends and the potential for a fullback look for the Packers to go big to run the football to limit the 49ers’ pass rush.
Additionally, I think that leveraging the late-game swap with a guy like Jamaal Williams ($3,800/$4,800) will be extremely important. Williams scored 15 fantasy points the last time these two teams faced and he had a season-high eight targets and seven receptions in the passing game. Rodgers has made a note of how important chemistry is entering this playoff game and he does have a solid rapport with Williams. When targeting Williams Rodgers has a 129.4 passer rating with a 90% completion percentage. If the Packers are trailing in this game, as the spread would project we could see more Williams assist with pass protection and play more third-downs.
Tyler Ervin ($3,100/$4,700) is mostly a punt play but is returning kicks and punts for Green Bay so I like the GPP stack with the Packers DST. Ervin has 4.41 speed and it’s a college homecoming from the former San Jose State Spartan. The pre-snap motion could be integral to Matt LaFleur’s gameplan, and Ervin has become LaFleur’s go-to motion man over the past several weeks.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
One of the biggest weaknesses of the Green Bay defense is defending against passes in-between the numbers. According to Sharp Football Stats over the second half of the season, passes in-between the numbers had a 56% success rate. Outside the numbers drop down to 41%. On the season the 49ers throw between the numbers 64% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. Expect for the 49ers to expose this matchup with a bounce-back effort from George Kittle ($5,800)/($7,000). The last time played Green Bay he went for over 125 yards and a score. His price is way too low. Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900)/($5,500) is still leading the receiver group from the slot position so he would be the favorite 49ers receiver to target in this spot, but both Deebo Samuel ($5,500)/$6,300) and Kendrick Bourne ($4,200)/($5,400) also have seen decent work from the slot over the past two weeks.
There are definitely trust issues between the lower-end wide receivers for the Packers and the coaching staff. After Allen Lazard ($4,400/$5,100) left last week’s game you would have expected another receiver to take his place right? Nope, the Packers instead opted to use more 13 personnel with no wide receiver outside of Adams seeing more than one target. With Lazard off the injury report, all of these fringy sub-4k Green Bay receivers should be faded for the most part. Jake Kumerow ($3,200/$4,700) is dirt-cheap on DraftKings and ran the second-most routes of any receiver on the Packers.
Adams is not an absolute lock to smash coming off his best game of the season. The last time he came off a 30-point game he finished with just 11.1 fantasy points the next week. Adams had just 43 receiving yards the last time he played SF but salvaged the day with a touchdown. As I mentioned the Packers used more three-tight end sets so Jace Sternberger ($2,500)/($4,000) (season-high 36 snaps last week) possesses explosiveness and his 44% snap share was higher than Jimmy Graham and Robert Tonyan. Sternberger wears 87 so perhaps Rodgers thinks he is throwing to Jordy Nelson.
