Jake Faigus 
Welcome everyone to the Sweet 16! I will be breaking down my Top Plays and Favorite Bets for Thursday. This slate is loaded, so see which games I like the most and why. Let’s Get to the action and WIN!
Alabama vs North Carolina (-4.5): This game has potential to be one of the best games of the tournament. Both teams play at a fast pace and have some of the best athletes in the tournament remaining. Alabama escaped a sloppy game against Grand Canyon in their last time out to move on, while North Carolina pulled away against Michigan State to advance. Alabama’s offense is what has got them here. They are the top scoring offense in college basketball, averaging 90.7 points per game and they are ranked fourth in adjusted offensive rating on KenPom with a 125.1 rating. Four different players on the Crimson Tide average over double digits with Mark Sears leading the way at 21.5 points per game. Their defense has been a massive issue and could come back to haunt them in a game like this against the Tar Heels. North Carolina is a very balanced team, ranking sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom with a 93.1 rating. They are also ranked 17th in adjusted offense on KenPom with a rating of 119.2. On offense, four different players average over double digits with RJ Davis leading the way at 21.3 points per game. Alabama has struggled to contain teams inside and has been soft on defense overall. The Tar Heels have excelled on defense and have the players to cause a lot of issues for the Crimson Tide across the board. Alabama’s offense will be able to keep them in this game, but North Carolina is the better and more well-rounded team. Look for North Carolina to win this game and cover to move on to the Elite Eight.
Pick: North Carolina -4.5
Illinois vs Iowa State (-1.5): These two teams are complete opposites of each other with Illinois being all about offense, while Iowa State is all about defense. Illinois blew out Duquesne to move on to face Iowa State. Iowa State escaped against Washington State to advance after pulling away late against the Cougars. Illinois has the top ranked offense on KenPom with a rating of 126.8 and they are ninth in scoring overall, averaging 84.6 points per game. Three different players on the Fighting Illini average over double digits with Terrence Shannon Jr. being a massive x-factor for Illinois, and leading the way at 23.3 points per game. Their defense could also be an issue with how inconsistent they have been at times on that end of the floor. For Iowa State, they have the top ranked defense on KenPom with a rating of 87.5. They are also allowing 61.2 points per game which is good for fourth in all of college basketball. Their offense has been efficient and improved overall. Four different Cyclones average over double digits with Keshon Gilbert leading the way at 13.7 points per game. Illinois has the offense to challenge Iowa State unlike other teams. The issue is also that Iowa State does not have any players that can match Shannon or Marcus Domask basket for basket. Their defense will keep them in the game, but Illinois is built to beat them. The Fighting Illini should win and move on to the Elite Eight.
Pick: Illinois +1.5 or Illinois ML (+100)
