Jake Faigus 
Welcome everyone to the first round of the NCAA Tournament! I will be breaking down my Top Plays and Favorite Bets for Day 1. Thursday’s slate is loaded, so see which games I like the most and why. Let’s Get to the action and WIN!
Michigan State vs Mississippi State (-1): Let’s get things started with the first game of Thursday and the opening game of the Round of 64. There is always a lot of support for Tom Izzo when he gets to March and rightfully so based on history, but this is not a good Michigan State team and there’s definitely an argument that they should not have even made the tournament. They have 14 losses and have been incredibly inconsistent. Metrics still like the Spartans with the NET ranking them 24th and KenPom ranking them 18th overall. They have played great on defense ranking 8th in adjusted defense on KenPom at 93.7 and they are a top-30 scoring defense allowing 65.9 points per game. They also have a lot to like in the backcourt with Tyson Walker leading the way with 18.2 points per game and then four players total also average double digits. But, they have not figured out their front court all year with a rotation of bigs. They also allow 32.8% from three-point range and are not great from the free throw line, only averaging 70.6 as a team. The toughness of Mississippi State is going to be the difference in this one. Mississippi State is also 31st in the NET and 30th overall in KenPom. They are 20th in adjusted defense at 95.7 and they are allowing 69.1 points per game. They are also one of the best three-point defenses in the country, allowing 29.4% from behind the arc. There are issues with the Bulldogs going in droughts on offense and they only have two players that average over double digits in Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith Jr. at 17.1 points per game and 15.2 points per game. Smith is a matchup nightmare for a Michigan State team that had issues finding any consistent play in their frontcourt all season. The Bulldogs have more to like overall and should win and cover in this game to start off the Round of 64.
Pick: Mississippi State -1
Duquesne vs BYU (-9.5): This is another early game and it is just a bad matchup for Duquesne. BYU can not play games on Sundays, so the committee downgraded the Cougars to a 6-seed when they would have been a 5-seed in another location if it weren’t for that technicality. Also, Duquesne is over-seeded. They came out of nowhere and won the A-10 Tournament. However, this is just a bad matchup for Duquesne because of how good BYU is and should be seeded higher. BYU is ranked 12th in the NET and 16th overall in KenPom. They are one of the best offenses in the country, ranking 11th in adjusted offense at 120.5 in KenPom and ranking 20th in scoring offense at 81.8 points per game. BYU is third in assists per game at 18.6 and they average 34.8 % from behind the arc, with all five players on the court having the ability to shoot it. Four different players average over double digits for the Cougars with Jaxson Robinson leading the way at 13.8 points per game as their sixth man. They also don’t draw a lot of fouls and don’t make a lot of mistakes overall. There’s no question that you need to admire the streak the Dukes have gone on, having not lost a game since Feb. 23 and they are playing for their coach Keith Dambrot who announced he will be retiring after their NCAA Tournament run. They are 80th in the NET and they are 86th in KenPom. Their offense is not great and average at best, but their defense is very good. They ranked 28th in adjusted defense on KenPom at 97.5 and 28th in scoring defense in all of college basketball, allowing 66 points per game. They also force 13.3 turnovers per game. The Dukes have one of the better storylines in the NCAA Tournament coming into this game, but their road ends against BYU. The Cougars have the offensive balance and the depth overall to keep the Duquesne defense on its heels. Expect BYU to win and win going away in this game where they should cover.
Pick: BYU -9.5
Oregon vs South Carolina (-1.5): Oregon got hot and won the Pac-12 tournament after an inconsistent season, mainly due to all the injuries they were dealing with and by the tournament they finally got healthy and got the auto-bid from the Pac-12. South Carolina is a great story this season, especially after being picked as one of the worst teams in the SEC in the pre-season. Oregon is 59th in the NET and 55th in KenPom. They are good, but not great on both offense and defense, with a 114.0 adjusted offense rating and a 100.6 adjusted defense rating in KenPom which was good for 50th and 70th respectively. Five different Ducks average double digits in scoring, but the two biggest keys are seniors N’Faly Dante leading the way at 16.2 points per game and 8.8 rebounds and then Jermaine Couisnard who averages 15.4 points per game and then leads the way in assists at 3.3. It is also worth noting Oregon takes care of the basketball, only averaging 10.2 turnovers per game. The South Carolina Gamecocks shocked everyone this season with how well they played. The metrics don’t love the Gamecocks with a NET ranking of 51 and then they are also ranked at 49 overall in KenPom. They are also not great at best on both offense and defense, and instead just okay on both sides of the ball. They are also not efficient on offense, only averaging 43.89% from the field overall. Only three players average over double digits for the Gamecocks with Meechie Johnson leading the way at 13.8 points per game. Oregon has more experience as a team and they have the better players in this game. The Gamecocks do not have an answer for N’Faly Dante down low and Couisnard’s experience in the backcourt should be a big difference. Dana Altman is also a great coach and has the advantage over Lamont Paris. The run ends for the Gamecocks in this game and the Ducks continue their hot streak into the Round of 32.
Pick: Oregon ML (-102)
Samford vs Kansas (-7.5): This game is one of the nightcap games and tips off out west in Salt Lake City and not to mention there’s an elevation aspect to it as well. The biggest news that hit before this game is that Kansas’ best player, Kevin McCullar Jr., has been dealing with a bone bruise in his knee and Bill Self finally said before their game that he will not be available during the NCAA Tournament at all. Samford is also a team that is ripe to bother the Jayhawks and pull the big upset. Kansas is 19th in the NET and 22nd overall in KenPom. They have been one of the best defenses in college basketball, ranking 10th in KenPom with an adjusted defensive rating of 94.2 and they are allowing 68.7 points per game. The Jayhawks were already dealing with depth issues before McCullar Jr. ‘s injury and they are now dealing with even more issues with him out. He is one of three players that averages over double digits for the Jayhawks and he led the way in scoring for them at 18.3 points per game for them. Next up is Hunter Dickinson at 18 points per game, but he is also not healthy after dislocating his shoulder and there’s no way he will be 100% even if he plays and he also leads the team in rebounds at 10.8 per game and blocks at 1.4 per game. The Samford Bulldogs play “Bucky Ball,” a name that comes from their head coach Bucky McMillan where they play uptempo and go very deep in their rotation. They are 74th in the NET and 82nd in KenPom. Their offense is the key to their success with a top-five scoring offense at 86 points per game. They also average 17.5 assists per game and shoot 39.3% from three-point range. Four different players average over double digits for them with Achor Achor leading the way at 15.8 points per game and then he also leads the team with 6.1 rebounds per game, and 1.8 blocks. On defense, they are one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers at 16.6 per game. The Jayhawks are basically limping into this game against a team like Samford that is a bad matchup for an injured team regardless of who the team is. Expect Samford to close out the first night of Madness with a massive win and upset in the first round.
Pick: Samford ML (+240)
