DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Before jumping into our golf betting tips for the British Open, you can read my FREE preview here. It provides all the background you need for golf DFS and betting tips at the British Open. Hopefully, this provides some background information and rationale explaining some of the thought process going into the below selections.
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British Open Golf Betting Tips
Headliners
Tommy Fleetwood – Future
3u E/W +2500 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
Jon Rahm
3u E/W +3125 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds w. 25% Bet Boost)
Shane Lowry
1.5u E/W +4500 (888Sport 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +260 (Betfair)
Tony Finau
1.5u E/W +4500 (Various 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +225 (Unibet)
Tom Kim
1u E/W +5000 (Various 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +220 (Betfair)
British Open Long Shots: Deep-Dive Bombs
As always with The Open, we have included some long-shot bombs utilising microstaking on the win odds. This comes from targeting links specialists with extensive experience on these types of golf courses, who may possess an advantage compared to those with limited links exposure. Main target for these selections is on the Top 20 and Top 40 markets, with staking structured accordingly.
Aaron Rai
0.75u E/W +8000 (BetVictor 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2.5u Top 20 +240 (Betfair)
Corey Conners
0.75u E/W +8000 (Various 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2.5u Top 20 +275 (Bet365)
Alex Noren
0.75u E/W +9000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2.5u Top 20 +350 (TAB)
Russell Henley
0.5u E/W +12500 (Various 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +400 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 20 +137 (Bet365)
Ewen Ferguson – Future
0.25u E/W +25000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
0.5u Top 20 +760 (Betfair)
And
1.5u Top 40 +200 (Bet365)
Matthew Jordan
0.25 E/W +35000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5u Top 20 +225 (Bet365)
Matthew Southgate – Future
0.25 E/W +50000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
0.5u Top 20 +1000 (BetVictor)
And
1.5u Top 40 +300 (Bet365)
Shubhankar Sharma
0.125 E/W +75000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds) OR +100000 (BetVictor 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1.25u Top 20 +1400 (Bet365)
And
2.5u Top 20 +400 (Unibet)
British Open Betting Player Profiles
Headliners
Tommy Fleetwood – DK Salary $9,300
British Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
I made a statement on this week’s PGA Draftcast that this may be “Tommy’s Time”. Betting Fleetwood at the top of the board for the British Open may seem bold. But I do think this represents a great opportunity for him to notch a maiden major championship victory.
It has been a consistent if not spectacular season for Fleetwood. He is still yet to win on the PGA Tour, but won big events on the DP World Tour throughout his career. He started the season with another win, in Dubai when chasing down Rory McIlroy. From a SG: Total perspective, this has been his best year since 2019 and 3rd best in his professional career.
He has begun to show up in the majors. Fleetwood finished 3rd at The Masters, 26th at the PGA Championship, and 16th at the US Open. The big factor is links golf is likely his strongest asset. He grew up playing this style of golf in Southport. That town is home to both Royal Birkdale and Royal Lytham, regular Open Championship hosts, and Hillside another notable links guide.
Fleetwood has compiled 4 finishes of 12th or better in his last 5 Open Championship starts. He has 6 finishes of 7th or better in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Add in a 4th and 6th at the Scottish Open since it has moved to a con-sanctioned event with the PGA Tour, and we have a picture of a links specialist who is able to compete with the biggest names when it comes to this style of course.
Jon Rahm – DK Salary $10,400
As with any LIV golfers, the lack of strokes gained data on their tour does make handicapping a tad more difficult. I am sure many thought he would move to LIV and absolutely dominate their tournaments. Given he hasn’t won yet will undoubtedly be disappointing for him.
However, I believe public perception has moved to far in the wrong direction here. He has finished 10th or better in all 9 of the LIV tournaments he has competed in. 5 of those have been top 5s. Despite a lack of SG data, we can take solace in the fact he has led their tour this season for greens in regulation. Yes, it is an archaic statistic. But it does indicate his ball-striking has still been at a decent enough level to consider.
Rahm has the complete game, with his ability to hit the ball long and straight a real asset on Royal Troon. That allows him to find fairways required on the front 9, and not struggle for distance on the tougher back 9.
His links golf acumen is a real asset too. He has finished 2nd and 3rd in The Open in 2023 and 2021 respectively. Royal Troon was where he made his debut in The Open. Given this is the last chance saloon for major championships in 2024, he will feel he has a point to prove this week after not showing up in any of the two he competed in this year.
Shane Lowry – DK Salary $8,200
I’d also not be surprised to see Lowry make another bold showing in The Open this year. The 2019 Open Champion Golfer of the Year finally notched another PGA Tour victory earlier this season, albeit in the Zurich Classic when paired with Rory McIlroy.
Lowry has extensive links experience but particularly has done well in Scotland. He has 7 finishes of 25th or better in the Alfred Dunhill Links. He has a 12th at The Renaissance Club. When the Scottish Open was still exclusively on the DP World Tour, he notched a 4th at Royal Aberdeen, an 11th and 14th at Castle Stuart, and a 7th at Loch Lomond. All of those outside Loch Lomond are truer links test than The Renaissance presents.
Last sighted finishing 9th in a signature event at The Travelers, he was 2nd in the field for SG: APP. That came due to the large number of wedges required at TPC River Highlands, a real asset to Lowry’s game. Between 100-150 yards and over 200+ yards are his strongest approach ranges. Royal Troon demands both, with wedges prevalent on the key scoring holes to start the round and long irons needed on the par 3s and the tough back 9.
Tony Finau – DK Salary $8,700
Of the American radiers coming over to steal this title, Tony Finau rates one of the best options when betting the British Open.
Recent finishes of 18th at the PGA Championship and 3rd at the US Open hint that he may be trending towards a major championship win. The latter on Pinehurst was somewhat links like in nature, with tussock grass and dome shaped greens with plenty of tight run-off areas. Perhaps the fact he played well there shouldn’t come as a surprise. He holds an Open record of 18-27-9-3-15-MC. The debut 18th place finish came here at Royal Troon. That is a very promising sign for a golfer with practically no links experience to play so well in their first look with one of the best fields in golf.
Finau is 3rd best in this field for SG: APP over 200+ yards in 2024. That will hold him in good stead on the long par 3s and back 9. He has gained more than 4 strokes on approach in his last 5 PGA Tour tournaments. Most pleasingly, the move to the new putter and putting strokes appears to be paying dividends, gaining strokes putting in three consecutive starts. That is the first time he has done so since January 2023, when he was putting together a run of frequent PGA Tour wins.
Tom Kim – DK Salary $8,100
My final headliner bet priced under 50/1 in British Open betting markets is Tom Kim. There is evidence to suggest Tom Kim may quietly be a very good links golf player. Alongside the runner-up finish in this event last year, he has a record of 3-6-15 in his three appearances at the Scottish Open.
After a slow start to the season, Tom Kim has started to come right in the summer. He has recorded a 4th at the RBC Canadian open and 2nd in the signature event at the Travelers Championship. His major record in 2024 has also been promising, going 30-26-26 this year.
Tom Kim is one of the best in the field from 100-150 yards and 200+ yards when looking at the last two years. Most eye-catching are the recent additions of driving distance. I have always said he don’t necessarily need to regard that he will be a short hitter for his entire career. Bear in mind, he only turned 22 years old last month and has been working on building the requisite muscle mass and speed training.
That is now coming to fruition, gaining for driving distance significantly in 4 out of 5 of his most recent starts. That has included bomber paradises such as the Rocket Mortgage. He would be a popular victor for a breakthrough major championship win.
British Open Betting Long Shots: Deep-Dive Bombs
Aaron Rai – DK Salary $7,300
We move to the famous DeepDiveGolf bombs for the British Open Betting preview. At the British Open, having some exposure to long-shots in the betting market can be a real edge. These volatile golf courses whenever playing on the links can present opportunities for outsiders to spike for an unexpectedly high finish. These selections are structured carefully, with the vast majority of staking going towards Top 20 and Top 40 markets.
Aaron Rai is in a rich vein of form. Arriving at this Open Championship, he has compiled 5 consecutive finishes of 19th or better. That included at the US Open and when 4th last week when in our betting tips. He is the 2nd most accurate driver in this field over the last 6 months, as well as 21st for SG: APP.
Links form is easy to find. He won the 2020 Scottish Open, was 3rd in the Scottish Championship that same year, and 9th when the Scottish Open was hosted at the true link test of Gullane.
However, most pleasing is the recent putting performacnes. Rai began working with a new putting coach and immediately saw substantial results. He has gained putting for 4 straight tournaments since. That has included ranking 7th, 1st, and 10th for SG: PUTT in his last three starts. For a golfer who was firmly regarded as captain of “team no-putt” to rank as the best putter in this field over the last month speaks volumes. Could be a real problem.
Corey Conners – DK Salary $7,300
Another who is making significant putting gains is Corey Conners. He has ranked 19th or better for putting in 3 recent tournaments. That feast or famine nature with his putter is eye-catching, indicating significant upside should you catch him in the right week.
Conners has displayed enough in links golf to keep me interested. He has finished 19th and 10th in his last two Scottish Open appearances. He has also made the cut in 3 consecutive Open Championships, including a 15th at The Old Course St Andrews.
However, I regard Royal Troon as an even better fit than his prior Open Championship appearances. If we believe this will be a tough test where elite ball strikers can separate themselves, Conners could well be your man. He rates out 8th in this field for SG: APP over the last 6 months. He is the 15th most accurate driver in this field over the last month, and ranks 25th for SG: PUTT over that time too.
Finally, the major championship finishes have been solid in 2024. He has finished 38th at The Masters, 26th at the PGA Championship, and 9th at the US Open. With the latter on a course somewhat comparable to a links test, expect another strong showing this week.
Alex Noren – DK Salary $7,200
British Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
I was hot on Noren at the beginning of the week and that feeling of endearment has only grown as the week has gone on. I was confident in his chances and made him my DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater for the British Open, with boosted betting odds to finish in the Top 20 to $4.50.
I’ve covered Noren extensively on radio and shows this week that there probably isn’t too much new to add. He has three recent top 10s at PGA National, with the Honda Classic a strong correlation to links performances.
Unlike most PGA Tour players, Noren has extensive links form. He is a winner of the Scottish Open, where he has also finished third. Pleasingly, both of those results came at Castle Stuart before the tournament found its home at The Renaissance. The former is much more of a traditional links test. The latter is more aptly titled ‘Diet Links’, although Noren still managed to finish 10th there last week.
In the Dunhill Links, Noren has finished in the Top 15 in 5/6 most recent appearances and holds a fifth in his sole appearance at Yas Links. That course is designed by Kyle Phillips, the same designer of Kingsbarns which is on the Dunhill Links rotation.
Noren holds five top-20s in 11 appearances at The Open, narrowly missing another when 23rd in 2023. And 46th at Royal Troon in 2016 should be read in the context of one of the most significant weather waves this tournament has seen: 16 of the top 21 teed off before 10.30am on Friday. Noren was on the wrong side of the draw, whereas this time he may well have the best of it. He tees off in the second group out on Thursday morning, and leads out on Friday at 11:47am.
Russell Henley – DK Salary $6,700
The opening betting odds for Henley at the British Open somewhat made sense at first glance. He has played limited links golf, finishing only a best of 20th in 9 appearances at The Open Championship.
I think he can reverse that trend for two reasons. One, I believe this course is a more suitable test for his game. Second, he is playing the best golf of his career since March 2023.
Henley has finished 38-23-7 in the majors this year. Again, the 7th came at Pinehurst which is some what analogous to links golf. The stats profile is also a treat to read for a golfer priced at triple figure odds. He is 13th for SG: Total, 16th for driving accuracy, 19th for SG: APP, 18th for SG: ATG, and 14 for SG: Putt in this field over the past 6 months.
Ewen Ferguson – DK Salary $6,400
Ewen Ferguson’s name was on the lips of every pundit after an emotional victory the the BMW International Open just two weeks ago. He has since quietened in the market slightly, likely after another Scotsman winning last week.
Ferguson withdrew from Open Championship qualifying. He decided instead that he was playing well, and his best chance was to back himself to earn his way in with a strong finish in one of the last two incoming tournaments. It was a bold move, but one that paid off.
The thought provoking thing with that win was it came on a parkland style course, where he typically has not played very well. He much prefers links style golf, and in the winds. The ever windy Qatar Masters was where he won in 2022, with a 16th and 9th there in the 2 renditions since. He was 16th at the 2020 Scottish Championship, 12th at the 2023 Scottish Open when co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, and 17th at the Alfred Dunhill Links.
Some rust when missing the cut at the Scottish Open can be forgiven, backing up after an emotional win. He was much better in the 2nd round there, where he ranked 8th for SG: APP.
It may come as a surprise that Ferguson ranks out 17th in this field for driving accuracy and 13th for SG: APP over the past 6 months. Bear in mind, Data Golf weight their strokes gained data according to the strength of the tour. That means, despite his appearances being at the DP World Tour level, it is comparable data.
Matthew Jordan – DK Salary $5,800
If you find yourself in the $5k range for DFS, you can far worse than taking a chance on links specialist Matthew Jordan.
He grew up playing golf at Royal Liverpool, where he remains a member. He had the honour of hitting the first tee-shot at the 2023 British Open there, where he finished an outstanding 10th when included in our betting tips. That came despite all the pressure and expectation on him in front of the locals, friends, and family.
It should probably come as no surprise. He has a 5th at the Alfred Dunhill Links, 25th at the Scottish Championship, 18th in the Scottish Open, 5th at the Qatar Masters in the very windy edition Ferguson won, and a 15th at Hillside. Notably, he also won the 2017 St Andrews Links Trophy, one of the premier amateur trophies in golf played across 2 rounds at the Jubilee Course and the final two round at the Old Course St Andrews
There have also been very promising signs in his approach game of late, gaining in that metric for 4/6 recent appearances and losing only -0.04 in another. Typically a weak aspect of his game, it does suggest his swing might be coming right. He has always been a golfer who has promised something special, so this may well be another strong showing which would surprise some out there.
Matthew Southgate – DK Salary $6,000
Another links specialist and another Matthew to consider this week. Southgate is also another former winner of the St Andrews Links Trophy, where he romped to victory by 5 strokes.
He already holds a 6th and 12th in The Open Championship. The 12th actually came at this very course Royal Troon in 2016 in just his 2nd Open Championship appearance. You can add in two runner-up finishes in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, the latest was recently in 2023 behind Matt Fitzpatrick. He has a 6th and 25th in the Scottish Challenge, a 16th in the Scottish Championship, and a 9th in the Scottish Open.
An eye-catching 4th at the BMW International Open behind Ewen Ferguson came on a parkland style course which usually favours strong drivers. It was another stellar display of approach from Southgate, who has gained an average of +1.64 SG: APP or more per round in 3/5 of his most recent appearances. Those represent his best tournaments for approach since September 2022.
Shubhankar Sharma – DK Salary $5,900
Finally, I can’t resist speculating on Sharma repeating the dose in 2024. Sharma opened in British Open betting markets at 1000/1. A very strange number given many amateurs were priced shorter.
This is a golfer who was 8th at The Open Championship last year. He also finished 38th last week at the Scottish Open, where he lead the field in SG: APP, and a 5th placed finish at the Italian Open.
Another promising sign is Sharma’s performance at Yas Links. As noted earlier, that is designed by renowned links architect Kyle Phillips. It is a Rolex Series event, attracting the very strongest fields on the DP World Tour and even many PGA Tour players to come over. He has finished 2nd and 7th there in his sole two appearances.
Given his odds and Draftkings pricing, you don’t have to risk much to find out here.
British Open FRL Betting Tips on the PGA Draftcast
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Whilst checking out the latest betting odds, why don’t you rewatch the British Open Championship PGA Draftcast above! We were delighted to be joined by VIP special guest Greg DuCharme from the CBS First Cut Podcast and Show.
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