Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

We have a spectacular card this weekend with UFC 259 containing three championship fights in Las Vegas. Our card will be a total of fifteen fights, the main card with five fights, prelims containing four fights, and early prelims carrying six bouts. The main event will be for the light heavyweight belt with Jan Blachowicz facing Israel Adesanya. It should be no surprise that Amanda Nunes is the largest betting favorite coming in at –1100. She will also be the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings at a hefty $9,600 price tag. If we keep all fifteen fights on this card (unlikely) it will be a card where you can be different and take chances to win that 200K top prize on DraftKings!

This week Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown will be unique with three title matches. I will talk about each and give an overview of my thoughts and still give a selection and where I’m at with ownership on those fighters. Then we will get back to normal with the three fights that have high potential to score high or end early. There is no more time to waste before this exciting card, so check out these picks!

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Light Heavyweight Title
Jan Blachowicz ($7,000) vs Israel Adesanya ($9,200)

The main note for this matchup is that Adesanya is fighting up a weight class here to Light Heavyweight. Jan has won two straight fights by knockout in the first two rounds displaying his power. Adesanya will have to get in and out very quickly which he is capable of doing. One advantage I see for Jan is his blackbelt in BJJ and he could have that extra weight pending what Izzy weighs in at. An 86% takedown defense is astonishing for Adesanya against fighters in his weight class. The speed of Adesanya could be lethal moving up a weight class but so could the added weight and power of Jan. I will have 90% exposure to this matchup and my ownership will be split in half for both fighters.

Women’s Featherweight Title
Megan Anderson ($6,600) vs Amanda Nunes ($9,600)

There is a good reason for Nunes to be a massive favorite for this fight. Her opponent has a strike ratio of –1.12, while Nunes sports a +1.97-strike ratio. Nunes has won 11 straight with eight of those being championship fights. Anderson’s last win on the other hand was against Norma Dumont who was making her UFC debut. In her last two fights, Nunes has recorded six and eight takedowns to dominate those decision wins. It is looking like I will have around 80% exposure to this fight with all shares siding with one of the greatest to do it, Amanda Nunes.

Bantamweight Title
Aljamain Sterling ($7,800) vs Petr Yan ($8,400)

What makes this fight interesting is the pricing which matchups the odds in Vegas where neither fighter is favored right now. This fight will be spectacular and may just win the fight of the night honors. We have Sterling as a long fighter that touches you often but lacks power and we see that with just two knockouts in his MMA career. I do like that Sterling has a black belt in BJJ and just made quick work of Sandhagen with a first-round submission. A submission is the only way Sterling wins in my eyes.

Yan is one of the best switch hitters in MMA and he showed that against Aldo landing 258 total strikes with 194 significant strikes. The takedown and submission worry me for Yan but I will trust his 88% takedown defense.
I will have 100% of this fight due to the pricing, the close matchup, and the extremely tight Vegas odds. I will be targeting 70% Yan and 30% Sterling heading into this weekend.

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Aalon Cruz ($7,300) vs Uros Medic ($8,900)

Uros Medic is making his UFC debut in this fight but comes in with a 6-0 record all ending in finishes. He is a great striker with power and we’ve seen that with two straight first-round finishes. Medic will throw spinning attacks and has a dangerous left hand that comes right down the middle. My main concern for Medic is the level of competition he has faced isn’t great. A seven-inch reach advantage is no joke for Cruz although it isn’t very often, we see him use it.

For Cruz, he is a big body 155 that is moving up a weight class where Medic is moving down. My concerns with Medic are the 39% strike accuracy and the first-round loss to Spike Carlyle. Medic has the power and flashy moves which is almost exactly what Spike brings to the table. If Cruz can use his reach advantage to touch Medic and keep him from closing the distance often is how I see him winning. I will post an update on this one after weigh-ins I want to see how Medic looks coming down from 170 pounds to 155.

Selection – Uros Medic ($8,900) 1st round KO

Kennedy Nzechukwu ($7,200) vs Carlos Ulberg ($9,000)

We have a very interesting fight here with Carlos Ulberg making his UFC debut. Ulberg was a great kickboxer before joining the UFC and only has five MMA fights. Ulberg has ended his last fight early in round one. He has ended his last three kickboxing bouts before the final bell as well. Ulberg does show good head movement and the ability to keep his distance in the cage. He trains out of City Kickboxing with Israel Adesanya which should be noted. Ulberg will do well when he can worry about just the striking of his opponent as he can do here.

When evaluating Nzechukwu I see that he holds out his left hand to keep his distance in check. A strike accuracy of 39% is a low number facing Ulberg who can keep his distance with his kickboxing abilities. The good things for Nzechukwu are his six-inch reach advantage and the actual MMA experience that he has. Let’s add one more thing to that list and that is massive power he has a huge frame hence the reach advantage. I will have a few shares of Nzechukwu heading into the weekend but the majority of my shares will be on Ulberg.

Selection – Carlos Ulberg ($9,000) 1st round KO

Thiago Santos ($7,600) vs Aleksandar Rakic ($8,600)

This should be a thriller in the light heavyweight division. Looking into Rakic he is a very athletic light heavyweight with a lean body type. He shows great power in his striking with four knockdowns in his last five fights. The strike landed to absorbed ratio is sitting at an impressive +2.67 heading into this fight. If Santos can get his leg kicks going again Rakic is heavy on his feet and those Santos leg kicks would be damaging.

The leg kicks declining for Santos could be a result of the leg injuries he accrued from the Jon Jones fight. He is still an excellent striker that has scored four knockdowns in four fights one of those coming in the loss to Glover Teixeira. Santos has a striking ratio of +2.04 to solidify his striking ability. If he could get back to landing those heavy-leg kicks, I would like him against Rakic here. Both fighters can end this fight at any time and I will have significant ownership to this fight. Rakic is coming off a dominating win against Anthony Smith but this will likely be his toughest test. Santos has had about the toughest three guys in the light heavyweight class in his last three fights

Selection – Thiago Santos – ($7,600) 2nd round KO

Honorable Mentions:

Islam Makhachev – ($9,400)

Sean Brady – ($9,300)

Casey Kenney – ($8,100)

Joseph Benavidez – ($7,900)

Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown

Final Thoughts
That will wrap up this amazing card and edition of Bombcarlo’s UFC 259 Card Breakdown. It should be a fantastic fifteen fights if we have zero cancellations leading into the weekend. For UFC cards the Discord Chat rooms are extremely important due to Covid and late fight scratches. There has been at least one fight per week thrown out for several weeks in a row. In Discord, you will find WinDaily staff members including myself answering any questions you made have. It is also a fantastic place to keep up with any news that breaks for this week’s slate. We will be without NBA this weekend so I will be playing more than normal for this card. Good luck this weekend and let’s make it a payday!