Mitchell Thoennes 
Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/14
We are back for another edition of Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/14 coming your way with the first NBA slate without NFL. Today’s slate brings us nine-game with tons of news and Questionable tags we will be waiting on. Some of those names include Anthony Davis, De’Aaron Fox, and Jamal Murray just to name a few. Those are significant names that would alter the slate pending their status. We haven’t even talked about half of Orlando being questionable entering this slate. Discord Chat will be extremely important for tonight’s slate as we wait for injury status’.
I will be using DraftKings pricing for my breakdown where Luka Doncic is our highest salary of $11,100. For today’s article, I will name my top two DraftKings plays at each position for this evening’s game slate based upon my research. Today’s top plays are ready to be seen let’s check them out!
Point Guard
Damian Lillard – ($9,600)
Over the past ten games, Dallas has been the worst defensive team in the NBA by far. They have also been playing at the tenth fastest pace in those games which is up from their season average of 18th. Lillard’s usage rate continues to be high with McCollum off the floor as he is averaging a 35% usage over the past four games. Lastly, this price is just too cheap for me. Dame, his scored at least 45 fantasy points in ten of his last twelve games. One of those games he didn’t his 45 was a massive blowout against Clevland. The matchup and usage should provide a solid path to a huge night for Dame Dollar.
Michael Carter Williams – ($4,700)
This is specifically if Orlando remains shorthanded for tonight’s game. Last game MCW played 27 minutes in his return from a lengthy absence. If the Magic are shorthanded again that number should only increase for MCW. With no point guard, a healthy MCW saw a 36.5% usage rate last game against Sacramento. If Orlando is shorthanded again MCW will play as many minutes as he is able and his fantasy points per minute last game with these guys out was nearly 1.5.
Shooting Guard
Dillon Brooks – ($5,400)
Desmond Bane and De’Anthony Melton have already been ruled out for this game again. With one of those guys out, Brooks has seen over 30 minutes for three straight games now. In two of those games, he scored 31 or more fantasy points while seeing a 24% usage rate. A beautiful matchup awaits Brooks as Sacramento still ranks dead last in defensive rating and just gave up 123 points to a depleted Orlando team.
RJ Hampton – ($3,400)
Hampton has seen minutes recently due to the absence of Gary Harris and Pj Dozier. Now we get to add Will Barton to that list which should only increase Hampton’s minutes again. He is averaging .8 fantasy points per minute with those guys out and Jamal Murray is questionable in addition to those players. In two of his last four games, he scored 24.5 fantasy points while only playing 19 minutes in one of those games. His minutes I would expect to be at least high 20’s ish and that will be plenty to pay off this low salary.
Small Forward
Khris Middleton – ($7,800)
Since Jrue Holiday is ruled out again I will be happy to roll out Middleton under 8K. A bad game against Utah caused Middleton’s price to drop below 8K. Now he faces OKC who has given up the third-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. His usage rate without Holiday climbs by almost 2% along with a 9% assist rate increase. With Holiday off the court, he is averaging 1.4 fantasy points per minute and should be able to pay off this salary with this matchup.
Miles Bridges – ($5,100)
Entering this game PJ Washington is doubtful and the Martin brothers are ruled out. Charlotte will be shorthanded for this game with forwards so Bridges should see 30 minutes here. Charlotte was missing a starter for the past four games and Bridges has seen 31 minutes in three of those. The matchup is good as well with San Antonio ranking fourth fastest in the past five games without Aldridge. Giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to small forwards should fare well for Bridges also.
Power Forward
Jerami Grant – ($7,400)
A fantastic matchup awaits Grant as New Orleans ranks fourth-worst in defensive rating on the season and third-worst in the previous ten games. Grant is averaging a usage rate of 28% in the last four games without Derrick Rose. Minutes are hardly an issue with Grant as he’s seen 35 minutes or more in four straight games. His ceiling is well above 40 fantasy points and what better spot to do it than a consistently bad defensive team.
Nemanja Bjelica – ($3,600)
For Bjelica to be in play Bagley would have to sit yet another game. Last game when Bagley was out Bjelica saw his first action in nearly a month. He was rather impressive playing 28 minutes while recording 35 fantasy points. In that game, Bjelica fell one board shy of a double-double. An amazing positional matchup here for Bjelica as Memphis has given up the most fantasy points to power forwards in the past ten games.
Center
Karl Anthony Towns – ($9,400)
Toronto has struggled against Centers in the past ten games allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to them. The Raptors as a team have ranked fifth-worst defensively in the past ten games. Towns should be without a minute’s limit here in his third game back and he saw 32 minutes last game. His usage rate can get to 30% I believe with D’Angelo Russell being ruled out already. Before getting hurt and missing time to COVID, Towns had scored at least 50 fantasy points in three of his four games. I think we see that 50-fantasy point mark return tonight against Toronto.
Kristaps Porzingis – ($8,500)
This game is projected to be the largest total on the slate so with having Lillard I want to run it back with Kristaps. Portland ranks third-worst overall defensively on the season and has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to centers. Adding to that they have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to centers in the past ten games. He has seen a usage increase lately with usage above 30% in four of his last five games. Specifically, in the past two games, his usage has been 36% well above his season average of around 28%. Tough game to ignore here but Dame and Porzingis are two pieces that are intriguing to me.
Monkey Knife Fight
Grizz vs Kings
Ja Morant – 19.5 points – More – With Melton and Bane ruled out Morant’s minutes are solidified as Memphis was running a deep rotation. He is facing the worst defensive team in the league and has played 35 minutes or more in two of the past three games. I love both of these plays and think they are near locks if Fox sits this game.
Buddy Hield – 17.5 points – More – this number seems way low for a guy that attempts at least ten threes per game most nights. Hield has surpassed this total in three straight games in tougher matchups (ORL, PHI, LAC). His minutes are sky high as well playing 37 minutes in eight of his last nine games. If Fox is out Hield should have no issues hitting at least 18 points for the game.
Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/14
Hope you all have enjoyed your weekend and continue to enjoy what is left. Thank you for taking the time to read my article Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/14. As I mentioned earlier, we are waiting on news from several big names that would change this slate.
Join the WinDaily staff and me in the Discord chat rooms to keep updated on all news for each slate. When news does break check our projection models for our top point per dollar value plays for the evening. Our highest projected total is Dallas vs Portland with a total of 236 points. We do have multiple other games hovering around that 229-230 point mark which should make for an interesting high scoring slate. Have a wonderful Sunday and good luck to you!
