Mitchell Thoennes 
Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns
Welcome back for another fantastic weekend of fights with UFC 258 Usman vs Burns. The eleven-bout event will be headlined with a clash of two teammates fighting for Welterweight gold. Another note is there are three lady fights this week including the Co-Main event. Usman comes into this clash being a -275 favorite looking for his third straight title defense. Our heaviest favorite on this card is Belal Muhammad at a -480 in Vegas. However, Rodolfo Vieira is the highest priced fighter on DraftKings at $9,300. Discord Chat is always important for UFC as any fight can get cancelled anytime nowadays. We have already seen evidence of that early this week as Jimmie Rivera vs Pedro Munhoz will already be moved to a later date. In Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns I will breakdown my top three fights that have early finish potential along with the main event. Enough jabbing around let’s get into this Championship card breakdown!
Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
First off, this is going to be a hard fight to predict because these two were teammates prior to training for this fight. These two trained together before knowing this fight was a possibility at some point and Burns said earlier this week that Usman already knows he can submit him. Really that comes as no surprise as Burns holds a second-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. The biggest problem I feel Burns will face is the hands of Usman as Kamaru holds a +2.27-strike landed to absorbed ratio. Burns is still positive figures at +.41 but not near the level of Usman’s. Kamaru has a black belt himself and a 100% takedown defense according to UFC stats so it will be tough for Burns. I will have 100% of this and it should be a hell of a fight! My exposure will likely be 70% Usman and 30% Burns.
Jim Miller ($7,300) vs Bobby Green ($8,900)
This is a matchup of two aging UFC veterans. It is clear that Miller would have the advantage on the ground with his black belt in jiu jitsu and Division one wrestling resume. We could also look at his 18 submission victories or his near two submission attempts per 15 minutes. Miller does a nice job as throwing punches just to set up his submissions specifically his chokes. I don’t think Miller really has to worry about the power of green as he hasn’t finished a fight early in over seven years.
Green likes to strike we see that with his +1.85 strikes landed to absorbed ratio. I just think he lacks power to end fights. His last knockout as I mentioned was seven years ago and if we look for another knockout, we would have to go back ten years. The last six victories for Green have all been by decision and that dates back to 2013. I can’t pay this price for Green as a decision win here won’t pay this price tag. A decision win for Miller will likely still result in him hitting value with his grappling and DraftKings new scoring for grapplers. Not saying this is a clear cut early finish I just like Miller to get the win here and pay off his cheap price tag.
Selection – Jim Miller ($7,000) 2nd round submission
UFC 258 Usman vs Burns
Philip Rowe ($8,200) vs Gabe Green ($8,000)
Each of these fighters only have one career fight that heard the final bell which screams fight of the night potential. Let’s start with Gabe Green who has finished all his wins early, three by knockout and six by submission. His striking in his UFC debut (which was on short notice) was impressive as he struck with Daniel Rodriguez who is known as a striker. In that fight he landed 8.47 strikes per minute which shows the volume and stamina is there as that fight went to a decision.
Philip Rowe has also finished all of his victories early with three knockouts and four by submission. His strike defense is pretty shaky to me though and I think that gets him in trouble even with a near seven-inch reach advantage. In his previous fight on the Contender Series Rowe was actually knocked down early in that fight before bouncing back to get a knockout win. That fight against Shahbazyan was the only win Rowe has against a fighter with an above .500 record. Rowe has finish potential so I wouldn’t rule a win out I just think it’s too early/quick for him. Regardless I really think having a piece of this fight is important.
Selection – Gabe Green ($8,000) 2nd round KO
Rodolfo Vieira ($9,300) vs Anthony Hernandez ($7,200)
It is clear where Vieira has an advantage coming into most of his fights and that’s on the mat. The man is a multi-time Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champion and has submitted both of his UFC opponents before the end of round two. Vieira comes into this clash 7-0 with all seven wins resulting in an early finish six of those by submission.
Hernandez doesn’t mind grappling either but it probably isn’t recommended against this opponent. He throws more strikes than Vieira but Hernandez gets hit more than he throws with a strike landed to absorbed ratio of –1.58. Coming into this fight he attains a record of 7-2 with six early finishes five of those by way of submission. Only one of Hernandez’s nine career fights have gone the distance. Once this gets to the ground it should be over in favor of Vieira he’s shown that with submissions in three straight fights none of which went past round two.
Selection – Rodolfo Vieira ($9,300) 1st round Submission
Honorable Mentions:
Belal Muhammad – ($9,200)
Julian Marquez – $8,700)
Polyana Viana – ($7,600)
Ian Heinisch – ($7,400)
Bombcarlo’s DFS Breakdown UFC 258 Usman vs Burns
Final Thoughts
I’m really gearing up for a crazy next two months or so of UFC cards including UFC 258 Usman vs Burns. We have some amazing cards to look forward too with loads of title fights in the near future. Discord Chat is important for UFC as we’ve seen fights get cancelled shortly before lineups lock. In Discord you will find Win Daily staff members and myself as we answer any questions you may have or provide updates on our top plays. I will be in Discord after weigh ins as I do evaluate them and we need to make sure both in the Championship fight do make weight. Before lock on Saturday will be my most active time in Discord this week so feel free to jump in and ask questions. Enjoy your Saturday night and hopefully we helped you knockout a huge tournament!
