mandrzeje@gmail.com 
It’s 7/22 and I’d like to welcome you back and thank you for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. I couldn’t be more satisfied with the results of the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo thus far. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine.
A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages
MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.
To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.
Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.
MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key
- Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage play.
- F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
- F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
- F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
- FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
- FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
- Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.
Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.
Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.
MLBMA Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals, 7/22
MLBMA Picks and Plays for 7/22:
Public Bets 7/22:
- STL F5ML (-110)
- CIN F5RL +0.5 (-145)
- MIA F5RL +0.5 (-135)
- TB FGRL +1.5 (-145)
I’m going to get exposure to all of these straight, and in combinations.
MLBMA BONUS Dog Catcher Lotto Ticket
- CIN F5ML (-110)
- TB F5ML (+100)
- MIN F5ML (-110)
- MIA F5ML (+100)
- HOU F5ML (-280)
- ARI F5ML (-260)
- (+2840, or $20 pays $600 and any multiple thereof)
It’s called a lotto ticket for a reason. It should represent no more than 0.25% of your entire stack. I weigh all my plays responsibly against my account AT ALL TIMES.
General Strategy
If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but it always depends on the odds that day. I do not like to pay any heavy juice beyond -200, so I would never play those straight. Those have to be paired, or faded. Anybody can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a profit, and all 4 is huge night on a small risk.
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .
