mandrzeje@gmail.com 
Thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg for the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine. Above all, once you can speak the lingo and understand the daily readout, this single sheet will give you an advantage in all betting formats instantaneously.
A Quick Intro to MLBMA & The Application of ORC+/PRA+
MLBMA incorporates technical analysis & trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I’ve created some new custom stats we’ll be using going forward. They will encompass all the prerequisites and most importantly save us all ridiculous amounts of time. Therefore, a team receiving a high grade in Offensive Runs Created or Pitching Runs Allowed has already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.
To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul. This type of board analysis isn’t child’s play.
MLBMA Implied Team Totals and ORC+/PRA+ Betting Key
I set the conditional formatting for the board similarly to the incomparable Baseball Savant. Red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. Therefore, regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for red and higher ORC+/PRA+.
For DFS purposes to identify the highest rated Starting Pitchers, find the greatest negative difference between opposing PRA and ORC in Dark Blue. To identify the highest rated offensive stacks, find the greatest positive difference between opposing ORC and PRA in Dark Red.
For purposes of simplification, I recently added ITT, or Implied Team Totals. These are a function of the combination of opposing ORC+/PRA+ grades. These are the actual predicted scores by the MLBMA algo. Of course, it can also be used for O/U plays or to identify DFS stacks as well.
Betting Analysis
It’s important for me to note that there are two ways I use the Algo results when selecting F5 bets. The first and most oft used is identifying a difference of one run or greater in the Implied Team Total (ITT) column. Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. Subsequently, the MLBMA algo is never going to imply either twelve or zero runs for a team. In addition, we can also identify two phase advantages in both Offensive Runs Created and Pitching Runs Scored.
A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .
Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals for 7pm Slate, 7.18.19
Betting, Picks and Plays:
Bets:
- Tier 1 F5 Bets:
- LAD – RL Straight / ML if paired or parlayed
- TB – RL Straight / ML if paired or parlayed
- TOR – RL Straight / ML if paired or parlayed
- Tier 2 F5 Bets:
- NYM
- BOS
- NYY
- Tier 3 F5 Bets:
- CLE
- CIN
- HOU
I haven’t gone live, and never do so until lineups are out. I got so many hits today that I had to split them into tiers. Anyone who knows me knows that I hate to try and grade picks, it is truly a fool’s errand. However, it’s impossible to guide people through nine picks without establishing some order. As always, I tried to keep things as objective as possible and ranked the games strictly by difference in Implied Team Totals.
Right now, I’m only going to focus on Tier 1. Three picks is very manageable, and a good place to start. Then, if you want you can apply the same strategy to the second and third tier. I suggest playing all three games in a tier straight, but shift to the -0.5 RL at better odds. 2 of 3 should at the least yield a small percentage profit. I’ll also get exposure to the 3 team ML parlay at a lower entry price. My usual go to, the F5ML Round Robin, yields a negative return on 2 of 3 due to heavy juice so I’d avoid it here. However it does bring me to an important point; Always play with the numbers. Everyone’s account size and expectations are different. Find a style that’s suited to you and never let anyone else dictate that.
As far as tiers 2 and 3, I’m going to have some fun with them. I’ll be mixing and matching in different combos. I recommend beginners protect their capital, and stick to the top tier plays only. I’m coming off 15 wins in a row and playing with some house money right now. My situation may not be your own. If you ever find yourself stressed over a bet, then you wagered too much.
DFS Pitchers:
- Ryu
- Price
- Stroman
- McKay
DFS Offensive Stacks:
- NYY
- MIL/ARI game
- TB
- TOR
