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Best Ball Stock Report NFL Week 1

The data below reflects my best ball portfolio of 150 $10, 20 $3, 2 $33, and 1 $15 best ball drafts on Draft Kings. Drafts took place from early June through the first week of September.

How I calculate being overweight and underweight is 1/12 = 8.33%. 12 is the number of teams that participate in drafts. So, if I have Player A in 9% or more of drafts, I am slightly overweight. This means that I am drafting Player A on average higher than the field. If I am drafting Player B in 8% or less in drafts, I am underweight on Player B. This means that I am drafting Player B on average lower than the field. When participating in as many drafts as me, you want to make a stand. If you think a player is going to return a higher return on investment (i.e., outperform his ADP, average draft position), you want your portfolio to reflect that.

Investment: $1,641                                                                 Projection: $2,269.90

Not only am I beating the rake, but I am also projected to advance at a rate far greater than average. Not too shabby. Now if I can only donate my Achilles tendon to a certain NY quarterback, I would feel perfect heading into Week 2.

Right:

Jordan Addison – 24% – very high exposure. Looked swift with crisp routes and might be the #2 weapon for the Vikings. Turned 6 targets into 4 catches with 61 yards and a touchdown.

Jakoby Myers – 21% – looks to already have great chemistry with Jimmy G. Hopefully the concussion doesn’t rule him out for Week 2 because he was one of the highest-scoring WRs on the slate before leaving with head injury in the 4th.

Joshua Kelley – 20% – 91 yards rushing plus a touchdown, not too shabby for a round 18-20 RB target. Received the same number of carries as Ekeler (16). If the Chargers have this split the entire season, which is in the realm of possibilities as they look to preserve Ekeler’s 28-year-old body, this will be a smash. Kelley looked great in the run game running behind a highly graded and finally fully healthy OL.

Tyler Allgeier – 16% – looks good. More work than most anticipated. 15 carries to Bijan’s 10 and two goal-line TDs. Excellent late-round pick. For those who listened to the beat writers and Peter King this offseason, this backfield will be split. Allgeier ran for 1K+ yards last year and he is not going anywhere.

Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins – 13% – both QBs looked very good. Purdy looked excellent on the road against a tough defense. Cousins and the Vikings look like they will be in many high-scoring games, their defense can barely stop a nosebleed.

David Montgomery -13% – great line, should have a lot of red zone opportunities like Jamaal Williams did last season. Gibbs may get more touches as the season progresses, but D-Mont can easily outproduce his ADP.

Chiefs WRs (MVS and Rice – 5%, Skyy – 3%, Toney – 1%) – what a shit show. Mike Evans come on down, you are the next contestant on ‘The Price is Right’.

Cooper Kupp – 3% – my biggest first-round fade looks very good. Was only drafting him sparingly pre-injury and now that he is on IR and out for at least 4 games I wish I had 1%.  But the 3% looks very favorable to me.

Najee Harris – 2% – Other than his 24-yard run, he had 5 carries for 7 yards. A big fade of this 4th round RB might pay dividends. It was also reported that Jaylen Warren will see more early down work than anticipated. He also had a bad game, but I am still high on Warren’s talent and pass-catching chops.

ODB – 1% – Only had 2 catches for 37 yards. On the other side of the formation, Zay Flowers (10%) looked very explosive and looked like the Ravens WR1.

James Conner & Marquise Brown (1%) – combined for 98 total yards.

Wrong:

Trey McBride – 20%– 2 targets to Zach Ertz’s 10. I expect the Cardinals to trade or sit Ertz later in the season, but this late-round TE dart throw might not produce early on. Drafted as my TE3 or 4, he should not negatively impact teams too badly but did not like Ertz’s number of routes compared to McBride’s.

Tannehill & Treylon Burks – 17% – 3 INTs he looked awful. I drafted him as my 3rd QB on a lot of builds, hopefully, he can bounce back. Regarding Burks, I still believe in his talent but if his QB cannot deliver him the ball then he can be Jerry Rice and it wouldn’t matter.

Drake London – 14% – 1 target for 0 yards. Ridder was efficient completing 15 of 18 passes but only threw for 115 yards. The Falcons will lean on the run game all year long. Both Pitts and London will have some dud weeks.

Corey Davis and Mecole Hardman (11-12%) – I was targeting these cheap Jets WRs late in drafts in June and early July. Luckily, my exposure to them went down significantly as the off-season progressed. With news that Cobb was playing over Hardman, and Corey Davis was retiring, these picks look awful in hindsight. Not to mention Aaron Rodgers is out for the season after tearing his Achilles on the first drive of the season. Womp womp.

Brandon Aiyuk – 7% – 2 TDs, beast mode. Also made a few terrific blocks including one on CMC’s long scamper. Like Ridley, wish I was overweight instead of slightly underweight.

Calvin Ridley – 6% – targeted early and often. Ridley looked like the receiver he was when he exited. Lightning quick with glue-like hands. Looks like a true #1 WR. Wish I was overweight instead of slightly underweight.

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