Brian Tulloch 
The PGA Tour is headed back to Cali for the AT&T Pebble Beach No-Am and we have another two course rotation this week between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (three of the four rounds will be on Pebble Beach). These two courses are relatively short but there is some benefit in being a long hitter on the gettable Par 5’s. With that said, all types of golfers have won this event and all are in play. My focus will be the usual APP and then OTT, but I’ll have a slightly bigger emphasis than normal on ARG as these POA greens are small and we may have some wind issues to deal with. Join us for the Win Daily PGA Livestream for more on the picks below and many more picks from me and @draftmasterflex. Let’s get to the AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks.
Patrick Cantlay (11300) – The ball striking metrics jump off the page relative to the field now that Dustin Johnson has withdrawn. I think Cantlay has the most win equity in this tournament and he is properly priced. He is also playing in his home state which should help.
Paul Casey (10400) – He won on the Euro Tour just two weeks ago and finished tied for 8th at The AmEx. Ball striking is classically good with Casey and it’s always the short game that trips him up. That could happen again, but recent history and course history give me the impression he will be very comfortable this weekend.
Francesco Molinari (9300) – Speaking of tied for 8th at the AmEx, Paul Casey was tied with none other than the resurgent Molinari. He has sported two top 10 finishes in his last two events and seems to have found the game that he completely lost last year. I won’t be overweight on Francesco but he’s a good course fit and is playing very well.
Kevin Streelman (8900) – He seems overpriced, even in this field, but his course history here is nothing short of spectacular. In his last 5 tournaments at Pebble he has finished 2nd, 7th, 6th, 14th and 17th. Add to that his recent form has been very good.
Henrik Norlander (8700) – Has fared pretty well here in the past, but more importantly, is quickly becoming a very good golfer. In his last three tournaments he has finished 22nd, 2nd and 12th and he’s been great OTT and on APP. The short game has been average, but he more than makes up for it with the ball striking.
Cameron Tringale (8500) – course history here is below average but recent history is very good and feels like a very good fit with his APP game. He’ll lose a little OTT but I think Tringale will be good everywhere else. Last week in Discord, a subscriber stated that Tringale’s price was “disrespectful” and that turned out to be true. Hoping to have him churn out another good score this week.
Matt Jones (8100) – Jones consistently makes cuts and finished 5th here last year. His ball striking numbers could be better, but in my estimation he’s a very under the radar guy with upside.
Peter Malnati (7800) – In this tournament the 7k range becomes pretty risky, but you’re going to have to take some big swings and there’s no bigger swing than Peter Malnati who can really be erratic with his ball striking. He can get hot in an instant and that is evidenced in his rencent history and his course history. Plenty of upside here.
Harold Varner III (7700) – HV3 simply hasn’t been good for quite some time, but I think we saw something last week with his 13th place finish in terms of putting a full four rounds together. If you look at the quality of this field, if HV3 can even be close to what he was last week, then he pays off his pricetag and then some.
Scott Stallings (7500) – I’m not going to be overweight on Stallings as there are plenty of guys that I want to take shots on in the 7k range (more on that during the Livestream/Podcast), but I am a fan of Stallings in general as his ball striking and short game are both solid. He has a missed cut here in 2020 but prior to that he had a 3rd, 7th and 14th place finish.
Michael Thompson (7200) – He and Kirk really let me down last week but I’ll probably go back to both in some lineups. Thompson will lose strokes OTT but should gain in other areas. His course history includes a 10th place finish in 2019 but also three missed cuts surrounding that. A hunch play for me as I liked the form he exhibited prior to last week’s missed cut.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – I purposely did not include any 6k golfers in this Initial Picks article because I think this range is very bad this week. I would avoid this range entirely if you can, other than the Secret Weapon of course, which will be in Discord Wednesday night. You can also tune into tonight’s Livestream for more on 6k golfers to consider.
Thanks for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks! Make sure to check back with Win Daily Sports all week for more content. See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael, Joel and myself.
