Sia 
We’re almost done with the “course rotation swing”, but we still have one hurdle to traverse, and it lies at The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. We have three courses that play relatively similar (more on that on the PGA Livestream Tuesday night which can be caught here) and therefore we will have the cut after Round 3 as opposed to Round 2. For my Initial Picks my focus will be on APP, PROX 100-125, ARG, BS and course history. Now let’s get to the picks.
Patrick Cantlay (11200) – He’s the best player in the field and his price is not prohibitive. I’m not locking him in by any means, but he’s the favorite for a reason.
Daniel Berger (10500) – There’s a good chance I start a lot of lineups in the 9k range or that I grab Cantlay and bounce right out of this range, but with that said, Berger is playing at an elite level and he’s the defending champ at The AT&T.
Maverick McNealy (9800) – Mav is from the area and will be among the most comfortable on these three tracks, as evidenced by his 2nd and 5th place finish over the last two years. He’s also coming in with good form.
Justin Rose (9600) – Speaking of good form, Justin is starting to find his game in all phases. Last week he gained strokes across the board and he’s finished Top 15 in 3 of his last 4 PGA events.
Seamus Power (9400) – Seamus feels like a newer name to most onlookers but he’s been around the block long enough to have played in this tournament 4 of the last 5 years. His results have been below average with two MC’s and no finishes above 38th, but today’s Seamus is a different animal and he’s coming in with elite form.
Tom Hoge (8500) – Hoge can get very hot on APP and has the short game to put it all together. The problem is it can also go off the rails here and there. Either way, I think the upside is there for Hoge and I’m willing to play the volatility game with him, unless his ownership is high.
Michael Thompson (7900) – The results have been up and down at the AT&T for Thompson, but the bearded one has taken on a new look and a newfound game with two Top 11 finishes over his last three tournaments. He certainly has MC equity but his ability to pop on APP and with the short game has me interested.
Lucas Glover (7800) – Another middling name with tremendous upside, particularly on APP. Glover has his issues ARG and PUTT, but over the last few tournaments, that has improved enough for me to hope it’s a trend rather than an aberration. Give me the upside with the irons. He finished 50th and 7th over his last two at The AT&T.
Russell Knox (7800) – Great course fit and great course history is about all I need to see in this range and Knox certainly has both. A recent 7th place at the Sony and a 7th place last year at the AT&T.
Matt Kuchar (7600) – He’s starting to play better golf and he’s a great course fit. Kuchar can get hot with the irons and hot with the putter and has made 3 cuts in a row here.
Chez Reavie (7400) – Leaning on course history and course fit yet again with this selection. Reavie has Top 25 finishes in 3 of his last 4 at The AT&T. His game right now is not in good shape, but I’ve found that when deciding between recent form and course form, it’s the course form that usually wins out. I’ll note that there are a number of guys to like in the low 7k range and we can discuss more on the PGA Livestream (link to show is in opening paragraph).
Mark Hubbard (6700) – The 6k range is pretty dicey and I’d recommend avoiding it, especially since the low 7k range is so rich with potential (Theegala, Merritt, Harkins, Schwartzel, Piercy, Stallings, Piercy, Buckley to name a few). With that said, I’m intrigued by Hubbard’s game as I do believe he’s a good course fit. A very risk play but rates out very with accuracy, APP, ARG and PUTT.
Secret Weapon – 47-15. See you in Discord.
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