Sia 
A star studded field for the Byron Nelson this week as the PGA pros get in a little Texas tune-up and prepare for next week’s PGA Championship. This week I’m focused on APP and PUTT as the rough is not penal and the green complexes are large. Expect relatively good GIR percentages across the board, but it will really be about scoring stats and creating opportunities. More on the course breakdown on the PGA Draftcast Tuesday night at 8:00.
Scottie Scheffler (10900) – Hard to doubt him at this point and he rates out very well SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB gained. APP and PUTT are important here and his recent form is elite in both areas. Add to that he gets to play in his home state. He’s the highest priced for very good reason.
Justin Thomas (10600) – He checks all the boxes. Great on APP, SG Par 5, BOB Gained and DK points. The PUTT can be up and down, but that goes for most players, even the elite ones. I like Scottie more than JT, but they are both great plays. I think Jordan Spieth is in a good spot for a pivot if his ownership is significantly lower than Scottie and JT. More on that Wednesday with @SicilyKid’s ownership article.
Hideki Matsuyama (9900) – He checks the main boxes here as he is good on APP and pretty good with the PUTT. Love him if ownership is low. We need to monitor his neck condition to make sure there hasn’t been an aggravation since his last time out, but it appears that all systems are go for him at the moment.
Sam Burns (9500) – Another guy who checks all the boxes with excellent ball striking and is elite with Par 5 scoring, DK Points and BoB Gained. Likely to be pretty chalky along with Zalatoris, but if I’m eating some chalk in between those two, I’m taking Burns and it’s not close.
Joaquin Niemann (9300) – The PUTT may be a big problem, but outside of that he’s a great course fit. Checks the boxes in the BS department and can put up birdies and DK points quickly. If he’s chalky I’ll likely pivot away as the PUTT scares me just enough to not play him at elevated ownership.
Talor Gooch (8600) – If he’s super chalky I’m more than happy to pivot but his game does set up well for the Byron Nelson. He’s well below average OTT, but that shouldn’t hurt him here. The APP game is very good and he does well in the Par 5 scoring and DK scoring departments.
Jhonnatan Vegas (8400) – His downfall is typically the ARG game which shouldn’t come into play too much here. He was amazing on APP last week and curiously bad OTT coming off surgery. If he stays dialed in on APP he’ll be tremendous value at this price.
Adam Hadwin (8000) – He’s shown significant upside from the outset of the calendar year including three Top 10s in a row. He’s been a monster on APP and can spike with the PUTT. An extremely good value at this price and likely a pretty popular option.
Alexander Noren (7900) – One of my favorite plays on the board for the Byron Nelson. Noren checks all the boxes including APP and PUTT. He’s inside the Top 30 SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB Gained. He was underwhelming at the RBC, but prior to that was a Top 25 machine.
Kurt Kitayama (7400) – Extremely risky but can spike with the APP and PUTT. He came in 3rd at the Honda and 2nd at Vedanta which tells you all you need to know about his upside. A GPP play only as his volatility can sink your cash lineup.
JJ Spaun (7200) – Another golfer who has been great in the BS department, can spike with the PUTT and has shown the upside to win as he did at The Valero. The PUTT can go south but he’s shown enough positive variance in that department to be played here at the Byron Nelson.
Patton Kizzire (7100) – He’s gained on APP in 8 of his last 10 measured events. A birdie-fest that relies on good APP game and good PUTT certainly suits him. Pretty great value considering his upside.
Brandon Wu (7000) – He’s made 5 cuts in a row all the while doing big things with his APP and PUTT game. The sample size isn’t huge but i’ll play the value and upside all day.
Doc Redman (6800) – Sneaky play as most will likely ignore him. He’s grades out quite well on APP and with the PUTT last 24 rounds.
Austin Smotherman (6600) – He’s made 3 out of 4 cuts and profiles really well for this course as he can get after it on APP and with the PUTT. Perfect course fit and good value in this volatile range. I’d also consider Malnati and Swafford down here.
Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 53-20
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