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The PGA Tour has one last stop before its next major and that stop is in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson. The 152 player field should be able to attack this golf course as there doesn’t appear to be much by way of trouble and/or hazards. This is the first time the AT&T Byron Nelson will be played at Craig Ranch (7500 yard Par 72), and therefore, you can ignore course history. You’ll want to focus on OTT and APP and PUTT. I rank APP just above OTT in this one with PUTT being a distant third place. More on the SG metrics and specific proximities on the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.
Jordan Spieth (10700) – He’s one of many guys I like that is from the area and he’s the best player T2G in this field. I like Bryson and Rahm in this range as well, but if I can only pick one golfer, it’s going to be Jordan.
Will Zalatoris (9700) – Coming off a missed cut but that’s no reason to pivot. Zalatoris grades out 1st on APP last 36 rounds and while his OTT game has been somewhat average, his overall ball striking is certainly elite. Add to that he’s playing at home and is very familiar with this course.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (9500) – An elite player that remains under the radar. He’s 9th OTT last 36 rounds but 1st OTT last 12 rounds. He grades out as the number one player in the 450-500 yard range. His long irons sometimes give him issues so that could spell trouble on APP, but I expect the best putter in this field to make up for it on the greens.
Ryan Palmer (9100) – Palmer has been hot this year but has cooled off a bit as of late. He lives 40 minutes north of this course and has played it at least “a couple dozen times” and holds the course record here (61). He’s 11th in my model and I think he has the upside to compete here late Sunday afternoon.
Luke List (8400) – He’s 11th in the field T2G over last 12 rounds and 6th OTT in the last 36 rounds. He gained across all categories last week at the Wells Fargo. His putter can really get him in trouble and therefore I like him better as a GPP play as opposed to cash.
Charl Schwartzl (8100) – He’s been very good for a few tournaments in a row now. He was 3rd in the field T2G last week and he’s within the Top 10 in this field T2G over the last 12 rounds. This feels like a good value play in the low 8k range.
Russell Knox (7700) – He was bad earlier this year but over the last 12 rounds he’s started to find his old form and that has resulted in being Top 15 T2G over the last 12 rounds. He was 2nd in the field T2G at Wells Fargo, but lost a good amount PUTT.
Doug Ghim (7500) – This tournament could turn into a putting contest and that’s not exactly where Ghim would want to be, but his T2G game is elite and in a GPP he will give you great value if he’s even decent with the putter.
Jhonnatan Vegas (7200) – number 1 in the field OTT at Wells Fargo (gained over 7 strokes total OTT). He lost most of his strokes ARG which shouldn’t hurt him too badly at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s 4th OTT last 36 rounds.
Roger Sloan (6900) – The 6k range is tough this week and there aren’t a lot of great options. Sloan is someone I’m willing to the roll the dice with because he’s been solid with the ball striking lately. He’s typically giving up a lot of strokes ARG but if his APP is on point (which it usually is), he shouldn’t need to worry too much about that. He’ll need to find the putter.
Chris Baker (6000) – Baker doesn’t have a lot of rounds under his belt, but his ball striking has been good enough in limited work for me to include him in this article. He’s obviously a GPP dart at this minimum price, but if you are trying to stack elite players you may be able to find some value in the abyss.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-7.
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