The American Express: Initial Picks

This week the PGA Tour jumps from Hawaii to Southern California for The American Express. This format is slightly different where 2 PGA pros and 2 amateurs will be paired up each of the first 3 days, on 3 different courses.  The first 3 rounds will rotate through the Stadium Course, La Quinta CC., and the Nicklaus Tournament Course. The top 70 (and ties) that make it through the cut Saturday afternoon will head back to The Stadium Course a 2^nd time for Sunday’s final round.

Originally known as The Bob Hope Classic, this event has been a PGA Tour staple since 1965. The list of former winners include Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Jon Rahm, Hudson Swafford, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson, Jhonattan Vegas, Bill Haas, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Phil Mickelson, and the defending champion Si Woo Kim. This list should tell you that just about anyone in this field can win this event. La Quinta CC., and The Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course are 2 of the 3 easiest birdie courses on the PGA Tour and I expect this to be a birdie fest event similar to the fall swing.

All 3 course are roughly 7200 yard par 72s with Bermuda greens. There are shorter par 4s and reachable par 5s throughout all 3 courses. The Pete Dye designed Stadium course (played twice) represents the most challenging with several water hazards and some architect comparisons to be made. Several golfers are Pete Dye specialists (Si Woo Kim). At The American Express we’re looking for great ball strikers (OTT + APP) that can sink enough putts to rack up a ton of birdies on easier courses. Be sure to check out the Tuesday Livestream which can be found here.

Key Metrics (in order)

SG: APP (approach)

SG: OTT (off the tee)

Birdies or Better

SG: P (putting on Bermuda)

DK scoring

You can add par 5 scoring and par 4 scoring if you like, but I think most of the golfers will be on the greens putting after making their approach shots (which we already have covered in the above metrics).

Initial Picks

Jon Rahm ($11300) and Patrick Cantlay ($10900) –  If you’re paying up, you need to start here. There are hundreds of arguments each way. I lean Cantlay slightly for price and expected ownership.

Seamus Power ($9500) – It was close between him and Conners here. Power is just much better with distance for the par 5s and a much better Bermuda putter. This provides more birdies and DK scoring opportunities at The American Express. Hoping that price tag scares away some ownership because it’s pretty steep, but he hasn’t given us any reason to NOT be paying it.

Matthew Wolff ($9300) He’s a volatile California kid that has shown he can just show up strong after an extended layoff. He doesn’t have great course history here but is coming off a stellar fall swing.

Jhonattan Vegas ($8100) 3^rd in my model. The putter always holds him back but Bermuda is his favorite. If he can just finish even in putting he should be close to the leader board. Mixed results here but a T11 back in ‘18, and I think he’s in much better form more recently.

I’m going to jump down because I can make arguments for everyone but can’t list them all. I want to mention some guys in the 7K range that can make a difference for your lineups.

Adam Hadwin ($7900) – The ball striking has been suspect. He loves the American Express though. T2 (‘19), T3 (‘18), 2^nd (‘17). Great comp course history as well. Hoping his ownership is low and he found some old iron form during the break.

Taylor Moore ($7300) and Hayden Buckley ($7200) – We were waiting to see which one of the new Korn Ferry guys were gonna make a statement on the PGA Tour. You should remember these 2 guys as I see big things coming in their future. I may roster both this week at this birdie fest.

Adam Svensson ($7000) – I’ve been rostering the Canadian and he just doesn’t disappoint. Sure there’s some risk, but finished solo 7^th at The Sony last week and has a T18 here back in ‘19.

Hudson Swafford ($6700) He struggles a little on Bermuda but made the cut last week knocking the rust off with a 47^th. Won this event back in ‘17 and showed up 11^th in my model over the last 50 rounds.

Cameron Young ($6700) Another up and coming Korn Ferry guy. He’s great OTT and with the flat stick. Can rack up birdies in a hurry as well when he can get all the aspects of his game going. Won B2B’s on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, and T2 at his 2^nd PGA start at Sanderson Farms in the fall swing.

If you’re in a betting market I highly suggest you take some shots this week as it represents one of the best events for a long shot to win. Start with a first round leader dart on Sebastian Munoz (T21 in ‘20), he just always seems to open up on FIRE and can make birdies in a hurry.

WinDaily has 3 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out our Tuesday night show with Sia, Joel, and Spencer (or on Apple podcasts or the win daily video hub). We’ll also have Spencer’s picks and then you can check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win.  As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family. You’ll also find the Secret Weapon in Discord Wednesday night (Current Record: 47-13).  If you haven’t already, follow WinDailySports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out all the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that. Hope you enjoyed this article.