Allan Fabrykant UFC Vegas 71
PAVLOVICH V BLAYDES
After a crazy card last week, we are back in Las Vegas to catch today’s UFC Fight Night! Today’s action will kick off at 4:00 PM ET. A few brothere of superstars will be squaring off and many fighters will be making their long-awaited returns. This card has a lot of close and interesting matchups for us to enjoy!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a matchup between two top 5 fighters in the UFC Heavyweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 71 Pavlovich vs Blaydes.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Bruno Silva vs Brad Tavares
Tonight’s value play comes directly from the co-main where Tavares is making a return to the Octagon following a loss to Dricus Du Plessis nearly one year ago against Bruno Silva who ended 2021 well but has quickly found himself on the wrong end of a two-fight losing streak, one of which came against a surging future champion in Alex Pereira. I think people are writing off Bruno too quickly in this matchup which is creating some good value. For example, one stat that jumped out to me was Bruno’s significantly higher SLpM rate when compared to Tavares’. I think this can have a larger impact than people realize, especially towards the later rounds. Ultimately, this is a close fight and a good matchup but I think Silva has all the value, is a good DFS play and in my opinion is in a good position to get the win tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Bruno Silva UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Bobby Green vs. Jared Gordon
Both of these fighters are very similar, they both rely on their standup game but have been known to mix in takedowns in their arsenal. Green is definitely the more experienced of the two and lately has been facing much stronger competition and holds a win over Haqparast and ended former title challenger Al Iaquinta’s UFC career with a dominant first round finish. Bobby Green has been consistent in showing his finishing power and although its hard to see Green cracking into the top 10, I can see him cruising to a win in this matchup, especially with a small height and reach advantage.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Bobby Green UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Montel Jackson vs. Rani Yahya
As a fighter, Rani Yahya is very much a one trick pony. He’s a grappler pure and simple and knowing that it’s easy for a fighter with the caliber of Montel Jackson to gameplan for that kind of fight style. Additionally, I’m very comfortable leaning on Jackson in this matchup from a statistical perspective. Jackson has a much better strike differential than his opponents, landing nearly three punches for every one punch thrown. Whereas, Yahya actually absorbs more punches than he lands per minute. Not only that but Yahya only has a Takedown accuracy rate of 33% and Jackson has a takedown defence rate of 67%. With those kinds of numbers, I think its only a matter of time before Montel ends Yahya’s night early.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Montel Jackson FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Curtis Blaydes 5 ROUNDER (Lots of people are high on Pavlovich and he has the power to get a win but Blaydes takedown ability is a gamechanger and it’ll be a huge asset in this fight)
Jeremiah Wells (This fight is very close but Wells has been far more consistent and Semelsberger has made some big Fight IQ errors in his UFC career that steer me away from him.)
Iasmin Lucindo
Norma Dumont
Junior Tafa
Danaa Batgerel
Francis Marshall
Karine Silva
Ricky Glenn
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Montel Jackson to Finish -155
Ricky Glenn -170
Iasmin Lucindo by Decision +105
